Nigella Market Steady: Sowing Surge, Firm Prices & Cautious Selling Shape Outlook

The Nigella (kalonji) market finds itself at an intriguing intersection this season. Field intelligence from key Saurashtra production belts—Gondal, Jetpur, Rajkot, and neighbouring areas—points to a notable acreage expansion, driven by a mix of agronomic and economic factors. Favourable weather has facilitated healthy crop development, with fields exhibiting uniform germination and ample soil moisture. Farmers, buoyed by stable price realisations in the last season, have responded with higher sowing. On the pricing front, stability reigns: farm-gate levels are holding at USD 3.30–3.55 per kg, average mandi trades hover near USD 3.70 per kg, and top-quality lots fetch as much as USD 3.95 per kg.

This firmness is underpinned by limited downside pressure—low carryover stocks and disciplined selling are keeping markets tight. While new-crop arrivals are anticipated from late January to early February, potential production gains hinge on sustained weather favourability through the critical final growth stages. Demand, meanwhile, remains robust from domestic processors and traders serving both food and non-food segments. Exporters, however, signal caution, with most awaiting confirmation of new-crop quality before engaging in significant volumes. The outlook suggests a steady to firm price trajectory ahead, with volatility likely dependent on initial arrival pace and the tenor of export buying. For those navigating this market, the coming weeks are pivotal as the transition to new-crop supplies begins.

📈 Prices

Market Segment	Location / Type	Price	Currency	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Farm-gate	Saurashtra (IN)	3.30–3.55	USD/kg	Stable	Steady/Firm
Mandi Average	Saurashtra (IN)	3.70	USD/kg	Stable	Steady
Superior Quality	Saurashtra (IN)	Up to 3.95	USD/kg	Firm	Firm

 

Type	Origin	Purity	Location	FOB Price	Currency	Last Update
Kalonji Sortex	IN	99%	New Delhi	2.20	EUR/kg	2026-01-10
Machine Clean	IN	99.80%	New Delhi	2.30	EUR/kg	2026-01-10
Sortex	EG	99.5%	Kairo	2.40	EUR/kg	2026-01-10

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Sowing has increased across key Indian belts (Saurashtra, including Gondal, Jetpur, Rajkot).
• Production outlook: Moderate increase likely, weather during final growth phase is crucial.
• Carryover stocks: Low, which is limiting downside risks.
• Demand drivers: Domestic spice processors, food, herbal, and cosmetic markets.
• Export demand: Selective so far; buyers are waiting for new-crop quality confirmation.

📊 Fundamentals

• Strong farmer participation due to previous year’s attractive realisations.
• Price support from disciplined selling and low inventories.
• Crop conditions reported as healthy: adequate soil moisture, lower pest pressure.
• No evidence of oversupply or dramatic stock build-up.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Recent reports confirm favourable weather and soil moisture in major growing regions.
• Final weeks are critical: Any adverse shifts (drought, unseasonal rain) could impact both production and quality.
• Current trend supports expectation of moderate yield increases, barring significant late-season shocks.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Crop Area Trend	Yield Outlook	Inventory Situation
India	Up (Saurashtra)	Favourable	Low carryover
Egypt	Stable	Steady	Normal

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect steady to firm prices in the short term due to low stocks and delayed grower selling.
• Monitor the onset and quality of new-crop arrivals from late January onward.
• Buyers: Short-covering advisable in the near term; secure requirements before fresh export commitments pick up.
• Sellers: Maintain cautious approach; wait for new-crop price cues and quality feedback before major offloading.
• Watch export market developments—large export participation could lift prices further once quality is confirmed.

⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Indian Markets)

Market	Current Level (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Saurashtra – Farm-gate	3.30–3.55	Steady/Firm
Saurashtra – Mandi	3.70	Stable
Superior Quality	3.95	Stable—possible uptick if export inquiries rise