Red chilli markets find themselves at a crucial juncture, with overall sentiment turning distinctly softer after a period of heightened volatility. Despite a minor rebound following recent declines, market participants remain cautious: prices have slid by $6 per quintal, then recovered by about $4, but now hover stubbornly near $283 per quintal. This apparent stabilization, however, masks a persistent undertone of weakness, with traders reporting a lack of robust buying support.
Behind the scenes, a notable uptick in fresh arrivals—up by 10,000–20,000 bags compared to prior weeks—is placing mounting pressure on mandis, causing price recovery efforts to falter. Exporters and domestic buyers alike are wary, opting for selective purchases rather than aggressive stock-building, and few expect a price rally as long as supply continues to outpace muted demand. The prevailing view is one of caution and patience, as the market digests increased crop inflows and waits for demand to catch up. If the current dynamics persist, the chilli market looks set to remain under pressure, with little promise of a near-term rebound.
📈 Prices
| Product | Type/Grade | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, grade A, organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 4.68 | 4.72 | 2026-02-07 | Bearish |
| Chilli dried | Powder, grade A, organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.42 | 4.47 | 2026-02-07 | Bearish |
| Chilli dried | Flakes, grade A, organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.38 | 4.42 | 2026-02-07 | Bearish |
| Chilli dried | With stem | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.17 | 2.22 | 2026-02-07 | Bearish |
| Chilli dried | Whole, stemless, grade A | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2026-02-07 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Fresh arrivals have increased significantly, up by 10,000–20,000 bags from previous weeks. This inflow is pressurizing the market, as mandis absorb the new crop.
- Demand: Remains subdued both domestically and for export. Traders and exporters are cautious, leading to only selective buying and no notable bulk deals.
- Sentiment: Weak, with market direction lacking conviction for a rebound while arrivals remain high and buying stays limited.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Recent Price Trend: Market fell $6/quintal, then recovered $4/quintal; now stable near $283/quintal but with no strong upside momentum.
- Arrival Pressure: 10,000–20,000 more bags weekly, increasing stock levels at mandis.
- Buyer Behavior: Lack of aggressive buying or export support, indicating risk aversion and uncertainty about future demand improvements.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders are mostly adopting a wait-and-watch approach with little optimism seen for the short term.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Recent weather data (web search) suggests generally stable conditions in India’s primary chilli-producing regions, with no significant disruptive events reported.
- This neutral weather supports steady crop harvest, sustaining the flow of fresh arrivals and reinforcing current supply-side pressures on prices.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: Continues to dominate global supply, with current season arrivals robust and stocks building in key mandis.
- Export Markets: Export activity remains slow, with overseas buyers also showing caution as global inventory levels appear adequate.
- Other Producers: No major disruptions reported from other large chilli exporters or importers. Market conditions are relatively balanced, but India’s current stock build is shaping global pricing sentiment.
⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Adopt a cautious approach: Wait for clear signals of revival in demand or for supplies to tighten.
- Avoid aggressive buying until there is evidence of export recovery or bulk domestic purchases.
- Watch mandi arrivals closely: Sustained high inflows could push prices lower.
- Hedgers and stockists should maintain minimal exposure and keep positions flexible.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Price Trend | Forecasted Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andhra Pradesh (FOB) | Stable to Slightly Lower | 2.15 – 2.22 | Bearish |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Stable to Slightly Lower | 4.63 – 4.70 | Bearish |
