Flooded Turkish Vineyards: Raisins Market Braces for Uncertainty in 2026

This February, the Turkish raisins market finds itself at a crossroads. Uncharacteristically heavy rains have swept through Manisa—a region critical to global raisin production—bringing welcome drought relief, but also exposing growers to unexpected peril. Prolonged downpours have saturated vineyards, and the flooding from the overflowing Gediz River has left many vines underwater just as critical spring preparations begin. Although the rains are easing conditions after years of dryness, immediate prospects for the next harvest are clouded in doubt: it is simply too soon to know the full scale of the damage. Export activity, a key indicator of market health, remains sluggish despite Ramadan-driven demand.

Recent weekly shipments lag behind historical averages, and suppliers are testing the market around USD 3285/ton for Turkish origins. Meanwhile, competitors in India, China, Chile, and Afghanistan are holding steady on price but monitoring Turkish weather news closely. In the coming weeks, the delay in vineyard entry and the looming potential for further rain present significant challenges—not just for Turkish growers and exporters, but also for global buyers and processors who rely on steady Turkish supply. All eyes will be on damage assessments due in early March. Prepare for significant volatility—and potentially pivotal price movements—as new crop risks are weighed against quiet current trade.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type/Grade	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
India	Brown, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.80	1.80	→	2026-02-13	Stable
India	Golden, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	2.25	2.25	→	2026-02-13	Stable
India	Black, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.74	1.74	→	2026-02-13	Stable
Turkey	Sultanas, type 9, RTU	Malatya (TR)	CIF	2.40	2.40	→	2026-02-11	Stable/Cautious
Turkey	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	Malatya (TR)	FOB	2.36	2.36	→	2026-02-11	Stable/Cautious
Turkey	Sultanas, type 10, grade A	Malatya (TR)	FOB	2.57	2.57	→	2026-02-11	Stable/Cautious
Turkey	Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic	Malatya (TR)	FOB	3.00	3.00	→	2026-02-11	Stable/Cautious
China	Sultanas, std, no: 9, grade AA	NL (Dordrecht)	FCA	2.25	2.25	→	2026-02-13	Stable
China	Sultanas, type 9, RTU grade STD	DE (Hamburg)	FCA	2.16	2.11	↑	2026-02-09	Slightly Bullish
Chile	Flame Jumbo	NL (Dordrecht)	FCA	2.55	2.55	→	2026-02-13	Stable
Afghanistan	Feed, brown	NL (Dordrecht)	FCA	2.00	2.00	→	2026-02-13	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Weather risk in Turkey: February’s rains in Manisa are severe—the worst in years—with many vineyards flooded and inaccessible. Full assessment of damage is only possible in early March.
• Export underperformance: Exports have been subdued YTD, with the week of February 14th registering 2,725 tons—down 200 tons from last year. Ramadan offers some support, but overall demand is lacking compared to historical averages.
• Quiet global market: Price action is flat across India, China, and Chile, as buyers and sellers await clarity on Turkish new crop prospects.
• Uncertainty ahead: Risk premium may emerge in prices if substantial Turkish crop damage is confirmed in March.

Export Volumes Table (Turkey)

Week (February)	2026 Exports (tons)	2025 Exports (tons)	Average Export Price (USD/ton)
Week 2	2,725	2,925	3,285

📊 Fundamentals

• Manisa’s vineyard saturation: Excessive rainfall threatens vine health, causes delays in pruning, and could impact the 2026 crop size and quality. Severe flooding hinders fieldwork in most affected areas.
• Timing of assessment: Vineyards will only be accessible in March. Decision-makers must wait for these surveys to judge true supply impact.
• Resilient global supply (for now): Indian, Chinese, and Chilean exporters are stable, but could see increased demand should Turkish losses materialize.
• Historic context: Similar extreme weather in Turkey has previously led to sharp price rallies; fundamentals caution against excessive risk-taking until damages are accurately quantified.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Short-term forecast: After potential 2–3 days of drying, further rain is forecast for Saturday. A clear weather window is unlikely before early March.
• Impact analysis: If rains persist or resume, risk of root damage, fungal issues, and late start to 2026 crop increases. Crop damage from flooding could further reduce availability for next season.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

• Turkey: World’s largest sultana producer; future output in serious question if Manisa crop loss is material.
• India, China, Chile: Key alternatives. Steady current inventory, but export focus could shift to fill any Turkish gap.
• Europe (NL, DE): Market remains amply supplied for now via imports, but may require price concessions for sustained coverage if Turkish supply contracts.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Secure cover for Q2–Q3 at current flat prices; monitor Turkish weather and be prepared to act quickly if damage estimates are high.
• Exporters: Manage sales carefully—short-term price risk is balanced, but a bullish scenario may unfold with proven Turkish crop loss.
• Producers: Delay new commitments until post-flooding impact is clear. Assess fields as soon as accessible.
• Speculators: Rising volatility likely in March as news from Manisa develops; consider straddle/strangle risk strategies.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Market Bias
Turkey (Malatya, FOB)	2.36–2.57	Unchanged, volatility risk rising	Neutral-to-Bullish
India (New Delhi, FOB)	1.74–2.25	Stable	Neutral
China (Hamburg/Dordrecht, FCA)	2.11–2.25	Slightly firmer	Steady-Bullish
Chile (Dordrecht, FCA)	2.55	Stable	Neutral