Sunflower Market Analysis: Pressure Mounts as Global Oilseeds See Surging Supply

The global sunflower market is experiencing notable price pressure caused by robust competition within the oilseed complex and a surge in South American exports. Recent momentum in US soy processing, record crushing levels for January, and historic US soyoil inventory build-ups are exerting a pronounced dampening effect on plant oil prices. Simultaneously, Brazilian soybean exports are projected to reach exceptionally high volumes, maintaining intense competition for sunflower and similar oilseeds, especially in export-driven markets.

Favorable weather conditions across South America further strengthen the supply outlook, while pending US acreage reports suggest a significant acreage rebound for soybeans in the next season. All these factors, rooted in the oilseed chain, weigh on sunflower prices and market sentiment globally. Market participants should therefore closely watch fundamental shifts in the broader oilseed landscape, as sunflower values are highly interlinked with these international developments.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Product	Contract/Offer	Last Price	Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
SAFEX	Feb 26	9,590	-60 (-0.63%)	ZAR/t	Bearish
SAFEX	Mar 26	9,193	-51 (-0.55%)	ZAR/t	Bearish
SAFEX	May 26	8,966	-52 (-0.58%)	ZAR/t	Bearish
EU Physical	BG, Striped, FCA Sofia	0.64	0.00	EUR/kg	Neutral
EU Physical	MD, Black, FCA Rheinfelden Herten	0.45	0.00	EUR/kg	Neutral
UA Physical	UA, Black, FCA Odesa	0.63	+0.02	EUR/kg	Slightly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US Soybean Crush: January NOPA crush hit a historic high at 221.564 million bushels (+10.6% YOY), signaling strong demand for protein meals but swelling soyoil stocks, thereby damping the vegetable oil complex price structure.
• South American Supply: Brazilian soybean exports in February projected at 11.46 million tonnes—about 5 million above last year—fueling high export competition and constraining sunflower’s export and price potential.
• Global Competition: Expanded soyoil output and rapid export surges are rapidly absorbing market share, keeping sunflower oil price gains in check.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory Build: US soyoil stocks now at their highest level since April 2023.
• Acreage Outlook: Early USDA projections suggest 84.9 million acres for US soybeans in 2026 (+3.7 million YOY), which could further amplify the global oilseed surplus if realized.
• Sunflower Market Sentiment: Global sunflower prices are tracking sideways to lower, largely kept in check by ample supply across the broader plant oil complex.
• Speculative Positions: Lack of fresh bullish catalysts and persistent inventory growth is likely limiting new speculative longs.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• South America: Predominantly favorable and dry weather for March in Argentina, southern Brazil, Paraguay supports maize and soy harvests, and ensures large and quick supplies to world markets.
• Central Brazil: Only minor risk of excessive moisture potentially interfering with the double-crop maize transition. No major sunflower-specific weather risk has emerged.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

• Brazil: Exports climbing steeply, record output probable, intensifying competitive landscape.
• US: Larger soybean area expected, building already-plentiful oilseed stocks even higher.
• Ukraine & EU: Physical sunflower seed and kernel offers remain steady, reflecting that ample supply and tight margins limit upside.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Neutral to Bearish—Robust supply, global inventory build, and lack of weather risk cap upside.
• For exporters: Consider defensive hedges to lock margins amid persistent competition from soybeans/oil.
• For crushers/processors: Watch for potential opportunities if physical premiums widen as logistics or localized disruption briefly emerge.
• For buyers/end users: Price dips offer reasonable coverage for sunflower seed and product procurement, but upside is limited barring crop shock or sudden demand surge.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Last Close	Forecast Range	Sentiment
SAFEX (Feb 26)	9,590 ZAR/t	9,400–9,650 ZAR/t	Bearish
EU Physical (BG, Striped)	0.64 EUR/kg	0.63–0.65 EUR/kg	Stable
UA Physical (Odesa, Black)	0.63 EUR/kg	0.62–0.64 EUR/kg	Slightly Bullish