Pepper Market Under Pressure: Supply Holds, Demand Soft, Range-Bound Outlook

Black pepper markets remain under notable pressure as both traders and growers grapple with subdued demand and guarded farmer selling. Despite entering a season historically marked by volatility, the absence of strong bullish triggers is keeping pepper prices weak in key Indian mandis. The main producing regions, Kerala and Karnataka, have seen crop arrivals pick up, yet market activity is selective. Farmers, anticipating better prices, are delaying significant sales, while buyers—both domestic and international—remain hesitant. Supply currently meets demand comfortably, even as this season’s output is estimated to be 20–25% below last year due to adverse weather conditions.

Export data reveal no dramatic fall, but certainly no boom strong enough to tighten local stocks. In short, with steady arrivals and only moderate demand, the market outlook is one of consolidation rather than a breakout. Unless there is a sharp shift in export orders or a marked reduction in arrivals, prices are likely to stay directionless and constrained in the near term.

📈 Prices

Product	Type/Origin	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Last Update	Sentiment
Pepper powder (organic)	Black / IN	New Delhi	9.04	2026-02-14	Stable / Soft
Pepper (organic)	White whole / IN	New Delhi	7.28	2026-02-14	Stable
Pepper (organic)	Green dehydrated / LK	Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte	8.73	2026-02-14	Stable
Pepper (organic)	Black whole 500 g/l / IN	New Delhi	8.31	2026-02-14	Soft
Pepper	Black, 600 g/l clean / VN	Hanoi	6.63	2026-02-14	Soft
Pepper	Black, 550 g/l, faq / VN	Hanoi	6.23	2026-02-14	Soft
Pepper	Black, 550 g/l, clean / VN	Hanoi	6.30	2026-02-14	Soft
Pepper	Black, 500 g/l, faq / VN	Hanoi	6.03	2026-02-14	Soft
Pepper	Black, 500 g/l, clean / IN	New Delhi	5.83	2026-02-14	Weak
Pepper	Black, 500 g/l, clean / VN	Hanoi	6.33	2026-02-14	Soft
Pepper	Black, 5 mm, extra bold / VN	Hanoi	6.73	2026-02-14	Soft
Pepper	Black / BR	Brasília	4.13	2026-02-14	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Leading producer, but 2025–26 crop estimated 20–25% lower year-on-year due to weather impacts. Fresh arrivals are steady in Kerala and increasing in Karnataka, but widespread farmer retention is reducing aggressive sales.
• Supply: Despite lower output, spot market availability is adequate—preventing price spikes and tempering volatility.
• Demand: Domestic stockists and inter-state buyers demonstrate only moderate interest. Export demand is present, but not vigorous enough to absorb surplus and lift prices notably.

📊 Fundamentals

• Recent price action: In Kochi, prices dropped by USD 9–12 per 100 kg after a minor, short-lived uptick of USD 6 per 100 kg. The rally lacked sustained momentum.
• Drivers: Key reason for persistent softness is adequate spot supplies versus limited festive/export-driven demand. Farmers are waiting for higher prices while buyers are in no rush, creating a sideways market.
• Export Data:
  • FY 2025–26 (first 9 months): Exports of 12,926 tonnes (USD 158 million)
  • FY 2024–25 (same period): 13,655 tonnes (USD 78 million)
  • Conclusion: Volumes have dipped but remain within range, insufficient to create local scarcity or lift prices.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Production drop (20–25% versus previous season) primarily attributed to adverse weather in Kerala. Nevertheless, timely harvest and stable post-harvest climate conditions in recent weeks have supported steady arrivals, offsetting supply tightness.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• India: Production and exports showing incremental weakness, but still a critical supplier to Asia and Europe.
• Vietnam: Soft export FOB prices (Hanoi, 6.03–6.73 EUR/kg) reflect global demand malaise and large inventories.
• Brazil: Remains a price anchor globally with the lowest quote (Brasília, 4.13 EUR/kg FOB).

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Range-bound sentiment likely for the next 2–4 weeks unless a shock in export demand or weather disrupts arrivals.
• Domestic buyers: Consider gradual accumulation at spot if attempting to average costs, but avoid large exposures given soft trend.
• Export traders: Monitor global trade flows—only act if export inquiries show marked pickup, as volumes remain just below average.
• Growers: Retain limited stock as a strategy, but be ready to sell on rallies or if arrivals begin to saturate local markets further.
• Key trigger to watch: Any sudden increase in international buying (especially China/Middle East) or significant delay to further arrivals in India and Vietnam.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, in EUR/kg)

Region/Type	Current	3-Day Forecast	Bias
New Delhi (Black whole, organic IN)	8.31	8.20–8.35	Sideways/Soft
Hanoi (Black whole, VN)	6.03–6.73	6.00–6.75	Soft
New Delhi (White whole, organic IN)	7.28	7.25–7.35	Stable