Ukrainian wheat markets are experiencing a new round of upward price momentum driven primarily by robust export activity, tight farmer selling, and persistent concerns regarding weather and crop conditions. Over the past week, milling wheat prices at the key Ukrainian ports of Greater Odesa and the Danube have increased by USD 1-2 per ton, now quoted at USD 213-219/ton and USD 211-218/ton CPT, respectively, as of February 19. This marks a continuation of a trend where intense export demand and farmer reluctance to sell stocks are squeezing available supplies. Additionally, competition from domestic processing plants is adding another layer of bullishness, while adverse weather remains a major source of uncertainty, threatening the outlook for winter crops and providing further support for prices.
Rising price dynamics from Ukraine are likely to impact global wheat flows, given the country’s significance as a key Black Sea exporter. The confluence of active exports, constrained supply, and bearish weather for new crop prospects is drawing the attention of market participants both regionally and internationally.
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Wheat
protein min. 11.50%
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FCA 0.24 €/kg
(from UA)
Wheat
protein min. 11.50%
98%
FCA 0.25 €/kg
(from UA)
Wheat
protein min. 9,50%
98%
FCA 0.24 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices
| Location | Delivery Terms | Wheat Spec (Protein %) | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine (Greater Odesa Port) | CPT | Milling Wheat | USD 213-219/t | +1-2 USD/t | Bullish (driven by export demand, supply tightness) |
| Ukraine (Danube Port) | CPT | Milling Wheat | USD 211-218/t | +1-2 USD/t | Bullish |
| Kyiv (UA, FCA) | FCA | Protein ≥11.5% | EUR 0.24/kg | No change | Stable/Bullish |
| Odesa (UA, FCA) | FCA | Protein ≥11.5% | EUR 0.25/kg | No change | Stable/Bullish |
| Odesa (UA, FCA) | FCA | Protein ≥9.5% | EUR 0.24/kg | No change | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Export Activity: Ukrainian export volumes remain robust, driving aggressive bidding from port traders and processing plants alike.
- Farmer Selling: Limited supply offered by farmers is squeezing local inventories and putting upward pressure on prices.
- Weather Concerns: Deteriorating weather conditions pose a risk to winter wheat crops, supporting recent price gains and adding uncertainty to new crop prospects.
- Processing Plant Demand: Domestic demand from mills and processors is intensifying market competition for available wheat supplies.
📊 Fundamentals
- Port Prices: Bullish price moves are closely linked to high port bids and ongoing loading programs.
- Stock Levels: Low on-farm inventories as farmers restrict sales, preferring to wait for higher prices or improved crop outlooks.
- Regional Price Comparison: Ukrainian wheat at ports is competitively priced versus US and French origins, but tight availability is supporting a premium in some delivery slots.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Ukraine: Unfavorable weather patterns (cold snaps, moisture deficits) threaten winter crop development; this risk is supportive for prices as the outlook for the 2024 harvest remains uncertain.
- Europe/Black Sea: Mild winter-to-spring transitions, but vigilance is high for frost events or prolonged dryness in coming weeks.
🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison
- Ukraine: Exporting aggressively; inventories tightening as season progresses.
- EU & France: Well-supplied but also facing some regional dryness risks that could hamper early crop growth. Paris FOB price: EUR 0.29/kg.
- US: FOB price Washington D.C.: EUR 0.21/kg; US wheat remains competitive but currently overshadowed by Black Sea supply tightness.
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish momentum persists for Ukrainian wheat as export demand collides with limited farmer selling and adverse weather risks.
- Buyers may need to pay up for prompt/mid-term nearby delivery, given strong export loading and tight on-farm holdings.
- For sellers: Strategic marketing and staggered sales may be prudent to capitalize on weather-induced risk premiums.
- Monitor weather forecasts and planting progress closely – sudden improvement could cap further price gains, while continued stress will underpin the current rally.
- Global buyers: Keep an eye on both Black Sea and Western European weather, as marginal changes will drive competitive price swings.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Region/Exchange | 3-Day Price Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine (Odesa CPT) | USD 214-221/t | Bullish / Firm |
| Ukraine (Danube CPT) | USD 212-220/t | Bullish / Firm |
| Paris (Euronext FOB) | EUR 0.29-0.30/kg | Steady / Bullish |
| CBOT (US FOB) | EUR 0.21-0.22/kg | Stable |
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