Beans Market in China: Stable Outlook as Supply-Demand Softens Before Lunar New Year

The Chinese beans market, particularly for adzuki (red bean) and related varieties, enters a seasonally quiet phase as the Lunar New Year approaches. Farmers across the main production regions have made considerable progress in crop sales, with Heilongjiang at 53%, Jilin at 82%, and the nationwide average nearing 57%. Exporters continue to maintain ample inventories, ensuring there is no immediate supply stress. However, as downstream buyers actively clear prior stocks, new procurement slows—a typical pattern ahead of the holiday season. Most processing plants are winding down, with the majority of grain traders and processors already suspending operations for holidays.

Surveyed market participants overwhelmingly (90%) expect prices to remain stable, with minimal upside or downside risk anticipated, and only a tiny minority foresee price movement in either direction. With limited fresh procurement and steady manageable inventories in production areas—generally below 300 tons per trader or plant, and only a few holding above 500 tons—the supply and demand dynamics suggest subdued activity until post-holiday resumption. In this context, market sentiment is neutral, with both supply and demand considered “soft”. Unexpected weather or policy shifts remain the main potential drivers for any deviation from this outlook, but current fundamentals point to an extended period of market calm.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/MT)	Weekly Change (EUR)	Market Sentiment
Kidney beans, dark red	Brazil	Brasília (FOB)	1.41	-0.01	Neutral/Soft
Kidney beans, brown eye	Brazil	Brasília (FOB)	1.36	-0.01	Neutral/Soft
Kidney beans, white, 99%	UK	London (FOB)	1.34	-0.01	Neutral/Soft
Adzuki beans, red, 5.0 mm up	China	Beijing (FOB)	1.28	+0.02	Neutral/Stable
Adzuki beans, red, organic	China	Beijing (FOB)	1.37	+0.01	Neutral/Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Farmers in key Chinese production zones (红小豆/main adzuki region) have sold about 57% of their crop. Heilongjiang lags slightly at 53%, while Jilin has sold 82%. Exporters retain healthy stock levels, reducing any immediate supply-side risk.
• Demand: Downstream buyers are mainly consuming prior inventory, with pre-holiday procurement slowing significantly. Trade focus is on fulfilling existing contracts rather than new spot business. Sales to traditional customers are ongoing, but new demand is muted.
• Inventory: Local traders hold relatively low stocks (mostly ≤300 tons), with only a few exceeding 500 tons. Inventory management is cautious, reflecting the quiet demand environment.

📊 Fundamentals

• Most trade and industrial participants have either stopped production or plan imminent shutdowns for holidays.
• 90% of market participants expect little price movement through the holiday season; only 5% see downside risk and 5% see upside potential.
• Both supply and demand are considered “soft;” the market is balanced but subdued.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• No significant adverse weather events have been reported in the key Chinese producing areas. The current supply situation reflects completed harvest and smooth logistics, but any sudden weather disruption could affect new-season field work after the holiday.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• China: Ample stocks at exporter level; manageable on-farm inventories. Majority of trade and processing paused.
• Brazil: Beans (mainly kidney) steady with marginal price easing (Brazil dark red kidney beans: EUR 1.41/MT, -0.01).
• UK & Europe: Prices stable, with white beans FOB London at EUR 1.34/MT (-0.01).
• Other origins: No significant supply disruptions reported.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect very limited spot trading and subdued liquidity through the Lunar New Year.
• Stability expected in both supply and demand; neither significant downside nor upside risk is likely.
• Any changes in government policy or logistic disruptions post-holiday could affect reopening sentiment, but not before.
• Buyers with urgent needs should engage existing stockholders, as fresh procurement resumes only post-holiday.
• Monitor weather and policy news for potential shifts in planting or logistics after holiday period.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key FOB Markets)

Region	Commodity	Current Price (EUR/MT)	3-Day Forecast
China (Beijing)	Adzuki beans	1.28-1.37	Stable
Brazil (Brasília)	Kidney beans, dark red	1.41	Mild downward to stable
UK (London)	Kidney beans, white	1.34	Stable