Cashew Market: Stability After Recent Surge—What’s Next for Prices?

After a notable period of firmness, the cashew market has found solid ground, with prices stabilizing across leading wholesale markets. Traders have witnessed prices for 180-count cashew holding around USD 13.80–14.00 per kg equivalent, showing resilience after a recent sharp increase of approximately USD 2–2.50 per kg. Supporting this firmness has been the steady equilibrium between demand and supply, with buying confidence remaining healthy both domestically and internationally.

 

Supply flows into the market have not been heavy enough to spark any correction, and there have been no signs of demand faltering. All eyes are now on the arrival of new crop volumes, but thus far, the increased supply anticipated has not exerted downward pressure. Overall, the market is not showing immediate downside risk, and unless arrivals surge or consumption patterns shift, stability is likely to prevail in the coming days. For market participants, understanding the subtle interplay of supply-demand forces—and the stabilizing impact these have post-surge—is critical in navigating the days ahead.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR)	Market Sentiment
WW240	VN (Hanoi)	7.75	+0.05	Stable
WS	VN (Hanoi)	5.75	+0.05	Stable
SP	VN (Hanoi)	4.30	+0.05	Stable/Firm

Key Wholesale Market Reference: 180-count cashew: USD 13.80–14.00/kg (stable)

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Recent Price Movement: Price uptick by USD 2–2.50 per kg in recent days due to robust demand and balanced supply
• Demand: Domestic demand steady; international market trends positively influencing confidence
• Supply: Market supply not excessive, so no immediate price pressure downwards despite new crop arrivals on the horizon
• Procurement: Buyers interested but not stockpiling aggressively; no panic buying

📊 Fundamentals

• Market Sentiment: Neutral-positive—traders reluctant to take large speculative positions, adopting a wait-and-watch approach
• International Influence: Global market cues continue to steer local sentiment
• Inventories: Current stock levels are sufficient to prevent scarcity but not burdensome enough to trigger a market correction

Region	Type	Organic	FOB Price (EUR/kg)
Vietnam	WW320	No	6.85
India	W320	No	6.93
India	W320	Yes	8.61

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Yields

• New Crop Arrivals: Expected soon, but not yet impacting market price
• Weather Impact: No significant adverse weather events reported in major producing regions; yields expected to be in line with forecasts

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Major Exporters: Vietnam, India—export prices show stable undertone
• Stocks: No signs of excessive stock accumulation; new arrivals closely watched for potential impact

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain regular purchasing strategy; avoid aggressive stockpiling given current stability
• Monitor new crop arrivals—if they surge, a downside correction could emerge
• Stay attentive to shifts in global market trends—especially consumption and trade flows
• No immediate downside risk unless demand unexpectedly wanes or arrivals spike substantially

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Vietnam (Hanoi): Steady for WW240/WW320—prices expected to hover near current FOB levels
• India (New Delhi): Stable for W320/W240—no near-term correction expected