China Beans Market: Inventory Absorption and Soft Demand Define Festive Season Dynamics

This season, the beans market in China navigates a complex interplay of robust supply and moderated demand, directly shaped by the ongoing Spring Festival. Exporters and traders are largely on holiday, and inventory digestion is the main activity across the value chain. Black bean supplies remain ample in key production areas, while processing plants and trading firms focus on working through existing stocks. Farmer selling activity has slowed as the end of the lunar year approaches, lending stability to raw bean costs and collectively providing a price floor. However, the downstream demand for black beans continues to be sluggish.

Many traders are still liquidating inventory or procuring only as needed, limiting upside in market activity. Market surveys reveal a strong consensus—95% of respondents foresee a stable market post-holiday, while only 5% predict a downturn. Recovery is expected to begin after the Lantern Festival (around fifteenth day of the lunar new year). Supporting this stable outlook, international price data show mostly flat or modest gains for key Chinese bean varieties. External weather factors and global market sentiment, while relevant, play secondary roles to the holiday-driven local supply and demand characteristics. The stage is set for a calm, range-bound market as the country transitions out of its festive mode.

📈 Beans Prices Overview

Product	Origin	Latest Price (EUR/MT)	Previous Price	Update Date	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Kidney beans (dark red)	BR	1.41	1.42	2026-02-21	-0.01 (-0.7%)	Neutral
Kidney beans (brown eye)	BR	1.36	1.37	2026-02-21	-0.01 (-0.7%)	Neutral
Kidney beans (white, 99%)	GB	1.34	1.35	2026-02-21	-0.01 (-0.7%)	Neutral
Kidney beans (black, 99.5%)	CN	1.08	1.07	2026-02-21	+0.01 (+0.9%)	Stable/Bullish
Mung beans (organic, 99.5%)	CN	1.60	1.58	2026-02-21	+0.02 (+1.3%)	Stable/Bullish
Kidney beans (small, black, organic, 99.5%)	CN	1.13	1.12	2026-02-21	+0.01 (+0.9%)	Stable/Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Supply: Black bean supply is ample in China’s main producing regions, as traders and processors focus on inventory absorption over new purchasing.
• Inventory: Holiday activity has slowed logistics and new deals, keeping the market in an inventory digestion phase.
• Farmer Selling: Selling enthusiasm among farmers is low heading into the year-end, helping stabilize input costs and underpin prices.
• Demand: Downstream demand for black beans is slow, with buyers primarily reducing stocks or making small, just-in-time purchases.
• Outlook: Market surveys strongly indicate post-holiday stability, with 95% expecting flat prices and only 5% predicting a softening.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• The seasonal holiday (Spring Festival) disrupts normal trading activity, emphasizing inventory digestion over price discovery.
• Raw bean cost stability is reinforced by reduced farmer sales and muted market activity.
• International prices (in EUR/MT) for Chinese beans are not showing significant volatility, further supporting the local stability narrative.
• No major speculative positioning or large crop acreage shifts are reported at this stage, as most market actors are inactive.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Current weather for Chinese bean-growing areas is generally favorable. No crop-threatening events are reported, so short-term supply outlook remains robust.
• Weather will gain more importance post-holiday as field activities and logistics recommence.

🌏 Global Balance Sheet Snapshot

• China: Large inventories and strong supply, with stable internal prices for the main varieties (black, mung, red and white kidney beans).
• Brazil & UK: Prices for key export varieties (red and white kidneys) are stable to slightly lower, offering additional supply-side reassurance for global buyers but little direct impact on current Chinese market dynamics.
• Trade Flows: Export activity remains subdued until the domestic market regains normal rhythm post-holiday.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect little price movement until after the Lantern Festival; market is range-bound and liquidity is low.
• Consider waiting on large purchases; post-holiday market may offer better insights and potentially small buying opportunities if demand improves.
• For inventory holders, focus on managing carry costs but avoid panic selling—prices are stabilized by weak farmer selling and stable raw bean costs.
• Major directional bets are not recommended; short-term outlook is for steady prices with minimal volatility.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast: Key Exchanges (EUR/MT)

Product	Location	Current Price	3-Day Forecast
Kidney beans (black, 99.5%)	CN, Beijing	1.08	1.08 ± 0.01 (Stable)
Mung beans (99.5%)	CN, Beijing	1.49	1.49 ± 0.01 (Stable)
Kidney beans (dark red)	BR, Brasília	1.41	1.41 ± 0.01 (Stable)