India’s Lentil Imports Surge as Brazil Expands Role: Market Outlook 2026

India’s lentil market is at a critical juncture, shaped by rising imports and domestic production challenges in the urad (black matpe) segment, which remains a bellwether for broader pulse trends. In 2026, India’s urad imports from Brazil are forecast to climb by at least 25%, reaching 300,000 tonnes, as Brazilian farmers expand acreage and ramp up forward sales on the back of last year’s strong prices and promising crop prospects. This evolution is particularly significant given India’s persistent domestic production shortfall—attributed to erratic weather patterns—a situation that has kept import demand robust, especially as first advance estimates peg 2025–26 Kharif urad output at just 1.205 million tonnes, well below previous years.

Brazil’s emergence as India’s second-largest urad supplier after Myanmar is diversifying the sourcing landscape and strengthening supply security. In 2025, India imported more than a million tonnes of urad, a 41% year-on-year surge, as domestic supply failed to keep pace with demand. Imports have been further facilitated by India’s duty-free import policy (currently extended until end-March), supporting inflows and tempering price volatility. However, imported urad prices are hovering near Indian minimum support levels and have softened in recent weeks, partly due to increased domestic arrivals, active trader selling, and weakened miller buying. Looking ahead, the interplay between global supply (especially Myanmar and Brazil), crop arrivals, and currency fluctuations will set the market tone in the coming months. Whether Brazil’s output can consistently meet rising demand will be pivotal for market participants navigating this complex landscape.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Purity/Organic	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Red Football	Canada	Ottawa	–	2.57	+0.02	2026-02-21	Firm, upward trend on export demand
Laird, Green	Canada	Ottawa	–	1.74	+0.02	2026-02-21	Stable, constrained by supply tightness
Eston Green	Canada	Ottawa	–	1.64	+0.02	2026-02-21	Steady, moderate interest
Small, Green (organic)	China	Beijing	99.5% / Yes	1.27	+0.01	2026-02-21	Stable, niche segment
Small, Green	China	Beijing	99.5% / No	1.21	+0.01	2026-02-21	Slight upward move, competitive offers

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazil’s 2026 urad output is expected to reach 300,000 tonnes, following expanded sowing after last year’s strong prices.
• India’s 2025–26 Kharif urad production is estimated at only 1.205 million tonnes, below the previous season’s 1.341 million tonnes.
• Rabi and summer sowings have not offset the earlier shortfalls, keeping the supply gap wide.
• Indian urad imports surged 41% in 2025, topping 1 million tonnes; Brazil and Myanmar remain key suppliers.
• Duty-free import regime until March is sustaining healthy inflows and mitigating supply shocks.
• Traders are actively selling, and arrivals from Indian states like Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are steady.

📊 Fundamentals & Key Market Movers

• Global Market: Brazil’s strategic positioning as a urad supplier is reshaping India’s import dependencies, enhancing diversification away from Myanmar.
• Domestic Shortfall: Weather-related disruptions underpin India’s persistent supply issues, keeping upward pressure on import needs.
• Sentiment: Prices have softened slightly with steady arrivals and weak miller demand, yet remain near government support levels.
• Policy: Duty-free imports are propping up supply and preventing sharper price spikes.

🌤️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Recent rains across key regions have supported optimistic crop prospects, with no major weather threats currently reported.
• India: Kharif season was adversely affected by erratic rainfall; near-term prospects hinge on stable weather into the Rabi harvest.
• Myanmar: Generally favorable weather should aid vessel loadings and exports in Q2, although local disruptions are always a risk.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Estimated Production (2025/26, ‘000 tonnes)	Year-on-Year Change	Import/Export Trend
India	1,205	-10%	Strong import demand
Brazil	300	+25%	Rising exports to India
Myanmar	~800	Stable	Main supplier to India
Other (Africa)	~20	Negligible	Minor supplemental flows

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Brazil’s urad harvest progress and forward sales, as these will be crucial for Q2–Q3 import flows.
• Importers should secure forward contracts, capitalizing on duty-free window before March expiry.
• Keep a close watch on Indian crop arrivals—large influxes may soften prices further, while disappointing yields could spark support rallies.
• Track Myanmar export prices and currency developments for early signals of shifts in global offer levels.
• Consider strategic diversification from single-origin sourcing to mitigate geopolitical or weather risks.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Outlook
Ottawa (Red Football Lentils)	2.57	2.55 – 2.59	Steady; slight upside on export demand
Ottawa (Green Lentils)	1.74	1.72 – 1.76	Stable; watch for trade-driven moves
Beijing (Small Green Lentils)	1.21	1.20 – 1.23	Slight increase; competitive offers