Alphonso Mango Market Heats Up on Weather Woes, Supply Squeeze, and High Prices

The early-season arrival of Hapus (Alphonso) mangoes in Pune’s key Gultekdi market signals a challenging start for both traders and consumers this year. Supply is currently trickling in—about 30 boxes per day, chiefly from Maharashtra’s highly regarded Devgad region, with limited quantities from Ratnagiri. This is sharply lower than the past two years, and the tight arrival is directly reflected in steep prices, setting multi-year seasonal highs. These constrained supplies stem from erratic weather across the Konkan belt that has severely impacted blossom and fruit set, shrinking this season’s crop potential. Retail prices for premium Alphonso mangoes have soared to between USD 120 and USD 216 per box, and USD 24 to USD 48 per dozen, depending on grading and fruit size.

While higher arrivals are anticipated from March 10 onward, demand is likely to intensify ahead of the festive Gudi Padwa, supporting current price levels. Similar trends are observable for Goa’s renowned Mancurad mangoes, suggesting a broader firmness in the high-end Indian mango market. With weather volatility disrupting critical flowering phases and overall output poised below last year, price resilience and market caution are expected to persist until supplies meaningfully recover.

📈 Prices

Variety	Location	Unit	Price Range (USD)	Price Range (EUR)*	Sentiment
Alphonso	Pune (IN)	Box (4-6 doz.)	120 – 216	110 – 200	Firm/Bullish
Alphonso	Pune (IN)	Per dozen	24 – 48	22 – 44	Firm/Bullish
Mancurad	Goa (IN)	Per dozen	Up to 60	Up to 55	Steady, Easing Expected
Mango dried (slices)	Hanoi (VN)	Per kg	5.82	5.82	Stable
Mango dried (chunks)	Hanoi (VN)	Per kg	5.62	5.62	Stable
Mango dried (normal sugar)	Dordrecht (NL)	Per kg	4.52	4.52	Stable

_{*EUR calculations rounded, using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR for illustration purposes.}

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals: Only 30 boxes/day of Alphonso (early season), mostly Devgad. Below two-year average.
• Supply Outlook: Weak due to erratic weather and poor fruit set; cautious optimism for post-March 10 supply increase if third flowering cycle improves.
• Demand: Consumer purchases currently subdued by high prices but expected to rise before Gudi Padwa festival, underpinning price strength.
• Authenticity Concerns: Market vigilance over GI-certified Alphonso mangoes, as interstate substitutions raise traceability issues.
• Goa Mancurad: Enters at lower prices than prior year but should ease sharply in April–May as volumes climb.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Weather Impact: Konkan region faced post-monsoon rains and temperature swings (night lows, afternoons to 35°C), disrupting flowering phases, notably the first and second cycles.
• Crop Prospects: Output to stay below last season, with third flowering cycle (mid-March) as last hope for recovery.
• Price Response: Highest early-season rates in several years due to tight supply and pent-up demand ahead of festival calendar.
• Inventories: Low across trading centres, intensifying market sensitivity to any weather, crop, or logistical changes.
• Mango Dry Market: Dried mango prices (FOB Vietnam, FCA Netherlands) remain steady, with no apparent link to Indian fresh market volatility.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Konkan region: Monitoring third flowering cycle mid-March; previous cycles underperformed due to erratic post-monsoon and thermal stress.
• Yield Risks: Below-par fruit set may persist if temperature swings continue or if March weather proves unstable.
• Goa: No major recent weather alarms; arrivals expected to increase, helping prices to moderate by late April/May.

🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison

• India (fresh mango): This season’s Alphonso supply well below last year, with Maharashtra (Konkan belt) at greatest risk of decline. Other states contribute to non-GI product flows.
• Goa (Mancurad): Situation more stable; price declines anticipated as supply strengthens.
• Dried mango (Vietnam, Thailand): Global processed mango origins steady in both output and product price, showing little seasonality versus Indian fresh market.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Early-season Alphonso supply is historically tight—caution warranted for short sellers; price firmness likely until at least late March.
• Monitor March weather in Konkan: abrupt cool spells or rainfall could further lower yield expectations or delay arrivals.
• Retailers advised to ensure GI verification on Alphonso shipments to protect brand credibility.
• Mancurad buyers may wait for post-March supply surge for more favorable pricing; buyers with immediate needs should minimize exposure to spot highs.
• Dried mango markets are unaffected by fresh Indian mango volatility; processed product buyers can maintain regular procurement.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market	Product	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
Pune (IN)	Alphonso (per box)	USD 170	USD 170	USD 175	USD 178
Goa (IN)	Mancurad (per dozen)	USD 58	USD 58	USD 56	USD 54
Hanoi (VN)	Dried Mango (per kg)	EUR 5.82	EUR 5.82	EUR 5.82	EUR 5.82
Dordrecht (NL)	Dried Mango (per kg)	EUR 4.52	EUR 4.52	EUR 4.52	EUR 4.52

_{*Forecasts are indicative and assume no major weather or logistical shocks.}