Soybeans Market: Sluggish Brazil Harvest, US Tariff Jitters & Soft Export Demand

The global soybeans market is experiencing a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped predominantly by the sluggish progress of Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest, volatile US trade policy, and waning export demand. According to the latest market data, all major soybean derivatives (beans, oil, and meal) on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are trading lower, a clear signal of bearish sentiment. The US market, a traditional price setter, faces a unique confluence of challenges: the recent US Supreme Court ruling rolling back key tariffs has not calmed nerves. On the contrary, President Trump’s immediate imposition of new 15% tariffs on nearly all imports has further muddied waters, undermining the US’s negotiation strength—particularly against China, its largest customer. Chinese buyers are seen leaning towards sourcing soybeans from Brazil, thanks to both price incentives and US policy unpredictability.

Soybean export data reinforces the market’s cautious tone: weekly US exports fell sharply, down 45% from the previous week and trailing last year’s pace by 24%. Cumulatively for 2025/26, shipments are lagging 32% behind the prior-year period. Meanwhile, Brazil’s harvest is progressing notably slower than last season, leaving supply-side risks lingering—especially with adverse weather still looming in key producing regions. Digesting all these dynamics, traders are treading carefully, mindful of potential short-term volatility and major movements tied to trade policy or weather headlines in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices & Market Summary

CBOT Soybean Complex (as of Feb 24, 2026)

Contract	Last Price	Change	Sentiment
Soybeans (Mar 26)	1129.00 US-Cent/bu	-5.25 (-0.46%)	Bearish
May 26	1144.25 US-Cent/bu	-5.50 (-0.48%)	Bearish
Jul 26	1158.50 US-Cent/bu	-5.00 (-0.43%)	Bearish

Contract	Last Price	Change
Soybean Oil (Mar 26)	59.36 US-Cent/lb	-0.03 (-0.05%)
Soybean Meal (Mar 26)	306.50 USD/short ton	-2.20 (-0.71%)

Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) No.1 Soybeans (Feb 13, 2026)

Contract	Last Price	Change
Mar 26	4564 CNY/t	+55 (+1.21%)
May 26	4657 CNY/t	+81 (+1.74%)
Jul 26	4671 CNY/t	+75 (+1.61%)

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Export Weakness: USDA reports weekly exports at 669,865 t, down 45% WoW and 24% YoY; China still top buyer but volumes shrank significantly.
• Brazil Harvest Delays: Only ~30% of 2025/26 soybeans harvested so far (per AgRural), well behind last year’s 39% pace; delays tied to weather, late planting, longer crop cycles.
• Tariff & Trade Angst: US trade policies fuel buyer caution; China may increasingly favor Brazilian beans over unpredictable US supply.
• Palm Oil Pressure: Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a second day, driven by narrowing spread to Chicago soyoil, hinting at reduced demand for soy oil.

📊 Fundamentals & Positioning

• US Crop Inventories: Cumulative exports for 25/26 at 25.03 Mt, running 32% behind last year.
• Speculative Positioning: Market sentiment reflects expectations of higher South American supply and subdued demand for US beans.
• Key Importers: China leads but is showing signs of slowing purchases from the US.

🌦️ Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

• Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul): Yield risk persists due to prior crop cycle delays; local farmers are hoping for additional rainfall to minimize loss.
• US Midwest: Off-season, but moisture reserves and planting intentions will become critical factors in the coming months.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

• Brazil: Harvest delays may tighten Q2 global supply, but overall output still projected strong if weather cooperates.
• US: Facing potential inventory buildup amid export weakness.
• China: Increasing pivot to South American supply sources, especially if US-China trade friction deepens.

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• • Cautious Approach: Bearish sentiment prevails amid lower export sales and robust South American supplies.
• • Short-term Volatility: Watch for weather-driven harvest updates from Brazil and any shifts in US-China trade negotiations.
• • Spread Strategies: Consider short soyoil against palm oil on narrowing price spread; long DCE soybeans on relative strength.
• • Supply Risks: Any round of adverse weather in Brazil could quickly trigger short-covering rallies.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (until Feb 27, 2026)

Exchange	Product	Direction	Forecast Range
CBOT	Soybeans (Mar)	Stable/Weak	1120-1135 US-Cent/bu
CBOT	Soybean Oil (Mar)	Slightly Weaker	58.5-59.5 US-Cent/lb
CBOT	Soybean Meal (Mar)	Slightly Weaker	304-308 USD/short ton
DCE	No.1 Soybeans (May)	Steady/Up	4640-4680 CNY/t

Note: Report driven by Raw Text market commentary and official exchange feeds as of Feb 24, 2026.