Bulgaria Tree Nut Market Expands as U.S. Maintains Leadership and Global Pistachio Output Rebounds

Bulgarian Tree Nut Market Hits Record Growth

Bulgaria’s tree nut market expanded rapidly in MY 2024/25, driven by stronger retail demand, tourism growth, and improved consumer incomes

Total almond and walnut imports surged 41 percent year-over-year to 10,970 metric tons, while import value climbed 36 percent to USD 31.9 million, marking a new record

The United States maintained its dominant supplier position, particularly in almonds, despite increasing price competition in walnuts and peanuts.

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🇺🇸 U.S. Almonds Strengthen Market Leadership

In MY 2024/25:

• Total almond imports reached 2,673 MT (shelled weight)

• Import value rose to USD 16.9 million

• Average import price increased 22 percent to USD 6,326/MT

The United States accounted for:

• 64 percent of almond import volume

• 63 percent of import value

Although U.S. almond volume declined 9 percent, higher prices lifted value 14 percent year-over-year.

Early MY 2025/26 data (September–October 2025) shows almond import prices rising another 37 percent, with volumes increasing 19 percent — signaling resilient demand despite elevated prices

Domestic almond consumption reached a record 3,230 MT, up 2 percent, with imports supplying approximately 80 percent of total demand

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🌰 Walnut Imports Skyrocket on Chinese Competition

Walnut imports surged dramatically in MY 2024/25:

• Total imports reached 8,297 MT (in-shell weight)

• Import value jumped 81 percent to USD 15.0 million

Shelled walnuts accounted for 90 percent of total imports.

China supplied 70 percent of shelled walnut imports, while Ukraine accounted for 15 percent

U.S. walnut exports to Bulgaria declined sharply to just 20 MT in-shell, valued at USD 43,000, due to strong price competition

Walnut consumption reached a new record of 10,864 MT, up 44 percent year-over-year.

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🥜 Peanuts and Pistachios Gain Momentum

Peanuts

Peanut imports rose 27 percent to 19,648 MT, valued at USD 27 million

Argentina led with 52 percent market share, followed by Nicaragua (15 percent) and the United States (11 percent).

U.S. peanut imports declined 18 percent to 1,911 MT, valued at USD 2.5 million, due to price competition

Pistachios

Pistachio imports increased 9 percent to 1,423 MT, while value surged 57 percent to USD 14.34 million

The United States maintained a 30 percent market share in pistachios, though volumes declined 41 percent due to higher prices.

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🇧🇬 Domestic Production: Volatile but Improving

In MY 2024/25:

• Almond production increased 83 percent to 1,140 MT

• Walnut production rose 23 percent to 4,240 MT

However, severe summer drought conditions in 2025 are expected to reduce almond output to roughly 650 MT and walnut output to approximately 3,500 MT in MY 2025/26

Lower local supply is expected to support higher import demand in the current marketing year.

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🌍 Global Context: U.S. Pistachio Output Rebounds

Globally, pistachio production for 2025/26 is forecast at 1.09 million MT, down 8 percent due to declines in Turkey and Iran

However, U.S. production is forecast to surge 43 percent to a record 712,682 MT, driven by the on-year of the alternate bearing cycle

U.S. pistachio exports are projected to rebound over 20 percent to 425,000 MT, near record levels

This rebound could support stronger shipments to EU markets, including Bulgaria.

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📊 Market Outlook MY 2025/26

Key drivers:

• Continued consumer focus on healthy snacks

• Growth in confectionery and protein snack production

• Tourism recovery

• Price sensitivity, especially in walnuts and peanuts

Retail nut sales were valued at approximately USD 80 million in CY 2025, with projections reaching USD 92 million by 2030

Import prices will remain the critical determinant of demand growth in the coming months.

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🔎 CMB Outlook

Bulgaria’s tree nut market has entered a high-growth phase, with strong retail momentum and industrial demand supporting imports.

The United States remains the dominant supplier of almonds and a major player in pistachios, but faces intensifying competition in walnuts and peanuts from China, Ukraine, and Argentina.

With domestic production expected to decline in MY 2025/26 due to drought, import demand is likely to remain firm.

Global pistachio supply recovery in the United States could provide pricing leverage in EU markets.

The Bulgarian market remains price-sensitive but structurally expanding.

Sources: USDA