Rice Market Outlook: Stability Returns as Chicago Futures Edge Higher

The international rice market is entering a phase of remarkable stability following intense volatility earlier in the season. The latest data from Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) Rice contracts shows a cautiously optimistic sentiment, as front-month futures edge up after the previous weekend. Despite low trading volumes, the market is witnessing modest gains across the curve, especially for contracts out to early 2027. This follows a phase characterized by speculative buying and a sharp rally, yet the fundamental supply picture remains unchanged. Noteworthy is the fact that, unlike some other grains, rice does not feature significant new export demand shocks or production downgrades at present.

Market behavior is being shaped predominantly by the expectations for supply and demand over the year, with attention turning toward weather patterns in Asia and U.S. acreage intentions. The absence of major supply risks and the expectation of sufficient carryover stocks temper bullish sentiment, keeping rice price movements contained within relatively tight ranges, unlike the ongoing wheat volatility. Traders are closely monitoring Asian FOB prices, which continue to soften marginally. With a tighter spread between current and deferred prices, the market is signaling a stabilization for now, paving the way for focused positioning as the Northern Hemisphere planting season approaches.

📈 Prices

CBOT Contract	Last Close [USD/cwt]	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mar 26	9.97	+0.07 (+0.66%)	Bullish, but low volume
May 26	10.30	+0.04 (+0.34%)	Steady
Jul 26	10.59	0.00 (0.00%)	Neutral
Sep 26	11.00	+0.10 (+0.92%)	Moderately bullish
Nov 26	11.17	0.00 (0.00%)	Stable
Jan 27	11.54	0.00 (0.00%)	Stable
Mar 27	11.81	0.00 (0.00%)	Stable

 

Origin	Type	Location	FOB Price [EUR/kg]	Weekly Change
IN	All golden, sella	New Delhi	0.97	-0.02
IN	All steam, pr11	New Delhi	0.47	-0.02
IN	Alısteam, sharbati	New Delhi	0.64	-0.02

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global supply for rice remains ample; no major adjustments in global ending stocks or output since last report, maintaining price stability.
• With the Northern Hemisphere planting season near, traders monitor Asian and U.S. acreage and weather outlooks, but no acute risks on the horizon.
• Asian FOB export prices have softened slightly, aligning with subdued demand and stable supply fundamentals.
• Financial investors have slowed speculative buying, causing price action to reflect true supply fundamentals rather than positioning.
• Export demand is steady—unlike wheat, rice has not seen a new wave of bookings from key importing countries.

📊 Fundamentals

• Strong stocks carried over by major exporters (India, Vietnam, Thailand, U.S.).
• Rice futures curve shows a narrower spread, indicating confidence in forward supply.
• Market participants expect sufficient carryover stocks to balance mild production downgrades, should they occur.
• No indication of major weather-related disruptions in South/Southeast Asia so far, supporting production stability.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Asia (India, Vietnam, Thailand): Neutral to slightly favorable weather with normal precipitation. No significant risk for current-seeded or near-term crops.
• United States: The southern rice belt is expected to receive moderate rainfall next week, maintaining good soil moisture and minimizing drought risk for early planting.
• African and South American rice regions: No major deviations from seasonal weather norms reported in the last week.

📉 Global Production & Stocks

• India remains the top exporter with stable inventory positions; government interventions continue to prioritize domestic food security, but no further export restrictions have materialized since last quarter.
• Vietnam and Thailand maintain robust export flows following record crops last year.
• U.S. stocks are expected to end the marketing year higher than the previous five-year average.
• African importers show steady demand without a surge in buying, mirroring subdued global trade momentum.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain current physical coverage if already hedged; otherwise, consider incremental buying as volatility recedes.
• Hedge short-term exposure on nearby CBOT contracts, given bullish undertones with limited upside.
• Monitor weather developments in top Asian exporters closely—any disruptions could drive the next wave of volatility.
• Stay alert to Indian export policy announcements in Q2 2026, as any change may impact global prices rapidly.
• Long-term contracts priced off the November 26 or January 27 CBOT should be considered for strategic buyers, as forward curve shows limited premium.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT, India, Vietnam)

Market	Current Price	Forecast Range (Next 3 Days)	Trend
CBOT Mar 26 [USD/cwt]	9.97	9.90 – 10.05	Stable/Bullish
IN New Delhi FOB, all golden, sella [EUR/kg]	0.97	0.96 – 0.98	Slightly Softening
VN Hanoi FOB, long, white, 5% [EUR/kg]	0.49	0.48 – 0.50	Stable

Bottom Line: Rice market stability is set to persist in the short term, with traders positioning cautiously ahead of the key seeding and monsoon season in Asia. Monitor weather and policy news flows for new catalysts.