Peas Under Pressure: Ukraine Faces Double Blow as Export Hopes Fade

The global peas market is entering a challenging period, led by mounting pressures on Ukrainian suppliers—traditionally among the world’s crucial exporters of yellow peas. This season has witnessed a dramatic contraction in export opportunities for Ukraine, centered on abrupt policy shifts in major destination markets. India, one of last year’s largest importers, reinstated a prohibitive 30% import duty on yellow peas in November 2025, abruptly halting zero-tariff access in an explicit move to support domestic farm incomes. Concurrently, Turkey—formerly the main conduit for Ukrainian peas—has pivoted its procurement toward cheaper Russian alternatives, compounding the strain on Ukrainian market share and export volumes. With export doors closing in both directions, Ukrainian suppliers now face intensifying competition and falling prices midway through the season, underscoring the pivotal influence of trade policy and regional price dynamics in shaping global pulse flows. This report unpacks the profound market shifts, analyzing price trends, evolving supply-demand fundamentals, and outlines strategic considerations as Ukraine’s peas trade adapts to shifting sands.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Last Week (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Peas, dried, green	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.35	0.36	-0.01	Weak / Bearish
Peas, dried, yellow	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.27	0.27	0.00	Flat / Bearish
Peas, dried, yellow	Poland	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.36	0.35	+0.01	Neutral
Peas, dried, marrowfat	Great Britain	London	FOB	1.35	1.35	0.00	Stable
Peas, dried, green	Great Britain	London	FOB	1.04	1.04	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Indian import policy reversal: The sudden re-imposition of a 30% import duty on yellow peas has sharply curtailed Indian demand for Ukrainian peas, reversing last season’s robust flows.
• Turkish market shift: Turkey, previously the leading outlet for Ukrainian peas, is now favoring Russian supplies thanks to cost advantage, leaving Ukrainian exporters struggling to find alternative buyers mid-season.
• Export competition: Increased competition from Russia is further narrowing export windows and placing downward pressure on Ukrainian prices.
• Inventory movement: With key markets closing, Ukrainian exporters may face rising carryover stocks and liquidity challenges.
• Stable European prices: Polish and UK peas display greater stability, reflecting less exposure to the abrupt trade policy changes affecting the Black Sea region.

📊 Fundamental Analysis

• Production shifts: Ukrainian pulse farmers may reconsider crop rotation or acreage for coming seasons if weak export pricing persists, impacting next year’s planted area and possibly supply tightness in the medium term.
• Inventory pressure: Closure of major markets creates risk of inventory buildup in Ukraine, increasing storage and financial costs.
• Trade balancing: The inability to swiftly redirect exports to alternative markets increases systemic risk for Ukrainian pulse exporters.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• Ukraine: Short-term weather patterns are seasonally moderate, with no major drought or flooding events forecasted. However, continued market access uncertainties overshadow any yield improvements.
• Russia: Favorable growing conditions support continued strong output and export competitiveness, especially for Turkey-bound cargos.
• Europe (PL/GB): Mild conditions prevail, supporting stable yields and generally steady market pricing for Polish and British producers.

🌐 Global Market Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est.)	Main Export Destinations	Market Access Notes
Ukraine	Declining	Turkey, EU	Losing ground in India and Turkey
Russia	Increasing	Turkey, MENA	Price-competitive, benefitting from Turkish demand
India	Stable to rising	–	Closed to imports via 30% duty
Poland (PL)	Stable	EU, regional	Stable, limited international trade exposure
Great Britain (GB)	Stable	EU, regional	Stable, premium for specialty types

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For exporters: Seek alternative outlets, possibly targeting North Africa or smaller EU pulse markets, but expect limited absorption capacity and continued price pressure.
• For importers: Opportunities exist for buyers to secure Ukrainian peas at discounted prices given export bottlenecks, but shipping logistics and market access hurdles remain.
• For producers: Carefully monitor signals from major importers—consider diversifying crops and avoiding oversupply in the next cycle if export markets remain restricted.
• For traders/speculators: Downside risks dominate for Ukrainian-origin peas; risk premium likely to widen until clarity returns regarding Indian and Turkish buying intentions.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Direction
UA (Odesa)	Yellow	0.27	0.26 – 0.27	Stable to slightly lower
UA (Odesa)	Green	0.35	0.34 – 0.35	Weak/Down
PL (Kiełczygłow)	Yellow	0.36	0.36	Stable