Hazelnuts Ascendant: Chile Reshapes Global Nut Market Amid Confectionery Boom

The global nuts market is undergoing a dramatic realignment, underpinned by major structural shifts in Chile’s fruit sector and explosive demand for hazelnuts. After a decade of cherry-driven expansion, Chilean growers are experiencing their weakest cherry crop on record, compelling a pivot to alternative, more resilient crops. European hazelnuts have emerged as the star, powered by robust international demand, particularly from the confectionery industry. With Italian processors leading the purchase surge and France and China ramping up interest, hazelnuts have become synonymous with stability and long-term growth. In just seven years, Chile’s hazelnut exports soared from USD 73 million to an astounding USD 505 million by 2025, with a 750% year-on-year export value jump in January 2026 alone. This momentum has transformed Chile into the world’s second-largest hazelnut producer, surpassing 100,000 tonnes in annual output.

Growers increasingly cite hazelnuts’ lower initial investment, high mechanization, and reduced labor requirements as decisive advantages over cherries, which relied heavily on fluctuating, China-centric demand. Weather volatility in historic supply centers like Turkey and Italy has only intensified the spotlight on Chile, triggering a surge in planted area and projections for further expansion. As the Maule region and south-central Chile pivot ever deeper into hazelnuts, a structural transformation is underway: hazelnuts are charting the path for Chile’s fruit export future, offering stability, scalability, and high-value market access just as cherries face an era of consolidation.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Brazil nuts	NL	Dordrecht	6.5	0.0	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Hazelnut Exports (Chile): Rose nearly 590% from 2018–2025 (USD 73m to USD 505m), with export value tripling between 2024–2025.
• January 2026: 750% year-on-year export surge demonstrates forceful international demand.
• Key Buyers: Italy (primary, driven by processors); growing demand from France and China; supported by major multinational food companies.
• Industrial Pull: Global confectionery sector is a pivotal driver, assuring long-term, predictable offtake for Chilean hazelnuts.
• Production scale: Over 100,000 tonnes output, with rapid area expansion projected to 70,000–75,000 ha in next 3–4 years.

📊 Industry Fundamentals & Structural Drivers

• Shift from Cherries to Hazelnuts: Cherries losing ground as seasonal Chinese demand contracts, while hazelnuts gain on structural advantages.
• Mechanization & Costs: Hazelnuts allow higher mechanization and less labor dependency, with lower up-front investment than cherries.
• Regionalization: Maule (>21,000 ha), La Araucanía, and Ñuble now dominate Chilean production; the south-central zone is the new production focal point.
• Weather: Volatility in Turkey/Italy is boosting Chile’s global share and reliability as a supplier.

☁️ Weather & Regional Outlook

• Chile: No major weather disruptions reported in 2026; continued favorable harvest conditions in Maule and southern regions.
• Competing origins: Recent adverse weather in Turkey and Italy strengthens Chile’s competitive position for export contracts and price stability.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Resource Comparison

Country	Production (‘000 t)	Stocks (‘000 t, est.)	2025/26 Trend
Turkey	~700	Moderate	Dented by weather
Chile	100+	Low/Expanding	Rapid uptake
Italy	~120	Moderate	Stable

📆 Trading & Market Recommendations

• Monitor Chile’s ongoing expansion—expect further supply growth and increasing global share in hazelnuts.
• Processors and buyers should diversify origin sourcing as Chile solidifies its second-place global position.
• Watch for demand fluctuations from major confectionery brands, especially in Italy, France, and China.
• Exporters: Maintain export agility—capitalize on production expansion and favorable weather conditions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

• EU Nuts (indicative, FCA NL): EUR 6.5/kg, expected stable (low volatility, ample supply).
• Chile Export (FOB, indicative): Premium over 2025 average, stable-to-positive sentiment amid new contracts.
• Turkey/Italy (indicative): Firm undertone, potential for mild upward adjustment if adverse local weather continues.