Chinese Beans Market Post-Holiday: Cautious Stability, Ample Supply, Muted Demand

The Chinese beans market—especially for adzuki and kidney beans—enters the post-holiday period characterized by a return to cautious stability amid moderate sales pressure and ample inventories. Recent surveys indicate that farmers in major production regions such as Heilongjiang and Jilin have progressed well in grain sales: approximately 57% sold in the main red adzuki-producing areas, 53% in Heilongjiang, and a notable 82% in Jilin province. Traders and exporters maintain comfortable stock positions, with most warehouses holding around 300 tons and only a minority of larger trade houses above 500 tons.

However, on the demand side, the market exhibits classic post-holiday lethargy. Consumption and purchasing activities by processors and distributors remain minimal, with only a few factories continuing to execute pre-holiday orders. Most purchasing and processing operations have yet to fully resume, which means the marketplace is still far from the trading activity observed before the holiday break. Market sentiment, as gathered from local surveys, is overwhelmingly neutral: 90% of market participants expect steady prices, while only small fractions foresee a slight decline (5%) or increase (5%). Traders and buyers are therefore advised to monitor downstream demand closely, as it will be the key determinant for the next move in beans prices and trading activity.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mung beans	China	Organic	99.5%	Yes	1.58	-0.02	Stable
Mung beans	China	3.8 mm up	99.5%	No	1.49	0.00	Stable
Kidney beans	China	Small, black, organic	99.5%	Yes	1.13	0.00	Stable
Adzuki beans	China	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	99.5%	Yes	1.38	+0.01	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Sale progress is moderate-to-high in the largest regions (57%~82%). Exporter/trader inventories reported as sufficient; limited evidence of local stockpiling above 500 tons per operator. No logistical constraints reported.
• Demand: Market activity remains subdued after the holiday. Few factories are executing prior contracts; most buyers remain on the sidelines with purchases not yet resumed.

📊 Fundamentals

• Both farm-gate and wholesale inventories remain at manageable levels, keeping selling pressure contained.
• Downstream demand—notably from food processors and exporters—will determine short-term price direction as domestic buyers have not resumed full activity post-holiday.
• Market sentiment: 90% expect stability; 5% anticipate a decline; 5% expect a rebound.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Current weather patterns in Northeast China (main beans region) are seasonally normal with no major concerns reported that might threaten the existing stock conditions or delay delivery resumption. Production areas have not experienced significant disruptions; future rainfall or cold snap events could be a watchpoint if planting plans accelerate in spring.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• China remains a dominant supplier in global bean markets, with well-advanced selling progress compared to historic years.
• Exporters report stock availability sufficient for scheduled shipments; importers continue monitoring for signal of post-holiday demand recovery.
• No major supply shocks reported from key competitors (e.g., Brazil, UK, EU), with their price levels slightly higher or stable compared to Chinese FOB offers.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Wait-and-see approach recommended due to weak demand and meaningful inventory cover in the Chinese market.
• Monitor downstream processing and end-consumer recovery for signs of pickup in buying activity.
• Short-term price swings expected to be limited, with a bias towards stability unless significant demand pickup emerges.
• For exporters: prioritize contract execution and consider incremental sales only if new demand signals appear.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Beijing FOB)

Product	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	RM Sentiment
Mung beans (organic)	1.58	1.58	1.58	Stable
Mung beans (conv.)	1.49	1.49	1.49	Stable
Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	1.13	1.13	1.13	Stable
Adzuki beans (red, organic)	1.38	1.38	1.38	Stable