Cashew Market Eyes Further Gains: Tight Supply and Strong Demand Propel Prices

The global cashew market is showing pronounced firmness as tight supply conditions and robust domestic demand converge, setting the stage for further price increases in the near term. Recent reports highlight that production has dropped in several key supplying nations, most notably across major African origins, which has created a palpable strain on global availability. This production shortfall, particularly profound for exporters who serve both international and burgeoning domestic markets, limits the volume of cashew kernels entering commercial pipelines.

The retail segment in consumer markets remains resilient, underpinning steady transactional flows. Traders are experiencing a firming price environment, with sentiment across the board staying positive, driven in no small part by the approaching wedding season—an annual phenomenon that typically accelerates forward buying and stock building by wholesale and retail players alike. With these factors stacking up against a backdrop of seasonally charged demand, expectation is building for further strengthening of cashew kernel prices over the coming days. The market’s focus now rests on the dual challenge of replenishing dwindling inventories while navigating rising input and logistical costs associated with supply constraints.

📈 Prices & Trends

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
WW240	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	7.75	+0.05	Firm/Bullish
WS	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	5.75	+0.05	Firm
SP	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	4.30	+0.05	Firm
WW320	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	6.85	+0.05	Bullish
W320 (organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	8.61	+0.05	Firm
W320	India	New Delhi	FOB	6.93	+0.05	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Supply: Production declines in key African supplying countries have tightened global availability.
• Demand: Retail demand is steady and firm, with the wedding season amplifying buying activity and stock-building efforts.
• Inventories: Squeezed availability is causing buyers to accelerate procurement ahead of the seasonal consumption spike.
• Market Feedback: Traders confirm the uptick in prices over recent sessions, with continued optimism over further gains.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• Supply side disruption from reduced output in major origins is the primary market driver; reports do not indicate significant logistical improvements or alternative sourcing at present.
• Weather: No major weather shocks have been reported recently, but persistent production challenges suggest prior adverse conditions or agronomic constraints in Africa and Asia continue to weigh on supply potential.
• Speculative Positioning: Market activity is increasingly oriented towards pre-emptive buying, supporting forward price firmness.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Its Impact

• Key Regions: No major weather disruptions in recent weeks, but rainfall deficits and agronomic issues during prior growing cycles remain a structural concern in African zones.
• Lingering supply tightness is likely to persist for coming weeks until new harvest flows commence—weather patterns in Q2 will be crucial for further outlooks.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Production: Africa (notably Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria) seeing lower output; Vietnam and India have relatively stable but costly exports.
• Stocks: Traders indicate lean end-of-season inventories; international spot availability is under pressure.
• Major Importers: US, Europe, and China are showing strong spot demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect cashew kernel prices to remain firm with further upside possible ahead of peak demand season.
• Buyers should expedite procurement to minimize risk of further price escalation or supply shortages.
• Sellers are advised to maintain a firm stance on offers to capitalize on positive momentum and limited supply.
• Monitor upcoming crop and shipment updates, especially from West Africa and Vietnam.
• Weather developments in major origins must be closely watched for supply-side risk reassessment.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg, FOB/FCA)

Type	Origin	Today	T+1	T+2
WW240	Vietnam	7.75	7.78	7.80
WS	Vietnam	5.75	5.77	5.78
SP	Vietnam	4.30	4.33	4.35