Argentina Maintains 48 MMT Soybean Forecast as Rains Stabilize Crop; Sunflower Hits 5.8 MMT Record

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Soybean Production Stabilizes at 48 MMT

Argentina’s MY2025/26 soybean production forecast remains unchanged at 48 million metric tons (MMT) on 16.5 million hectares planted, following significant February rainfall that stabilized crop conditions after January dryness

According to field observations detailed on pages 2–4, timely precipitation across core production regions (Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Ríos) reversed much of the earlier moisture stress. Cumulative February rainfall reached 100–150 mm in many areas, improving soil profiles and supporting root development.

However, regional variability persists:

  • Southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires reported localized second-crop losses of up to 30%.

  • First-crop yields are largely determined and expected to be strong.

  • Second-crop soy remains more weather-sensitive entering reproductive stages.

The national average yield is forecast at 3.38 MT per hectare

Crush Remains Robust at 43 MMT

For MY2025/26, soybean crush is forecast at 43 MMT, up 1 MMT from the prior season

The increase reflects:

  • A return to more traditional trade flows

  • Reduced whole bean exports to China

  • Strong domestic processing margins

Exports for MY2025/26 are forecast at 6 MMT, down from the prior year, as more beans are directed toward domestic crushing

For MY2024/25:

  • Crush is lowered to 42 MMT

  • Exports reduced to 12.7 MMT, though still a 15-year record and triple the previous year’s level

The statistical table on page 11 confirms ending stocks for MY2025/26 at 4.35 MMT, up from the prior year’s 3.85 MMT

Sunflower Production Raised to 5.8 MMT

Argentina’s MY2025/26 sunflower production is raised to 5.8 MMT, up 500,000 MT from the previous forecast

Key drivers:

  • Planted area: 2.7 million hectares (up sharply year-over-year)

  • Yield: 2.2 MT/HA, well above the five-year average of 1.4 MT/HA

  • Harvest progress: 30% complete as of late February

As shown in the statistical table (page 11), sunflower crush is forecast at 5.38 MMT, supported by strong oil demand and improved processing margins

MY2025/26 is expected to set new records for:

  • Sunflowerseed production

  • Sunflower oil exports

  • Sunflower meal exports

India remains the dominant buyer of Argentine sunflower oil, accounting for 46% of exports in CY2025 and expected to increase its share

The EU remains the largest market for whole sunflowerseed, with exports surging to 85,330 MT in CY2025.

Peanut Area Contracts Sharply

For MY2025/26, peanut planted area is projected at 400,000 hectares, down from 532,000 hectares the previous season

The reduction reflects:

  • Lower price expectations

  • Market glut following record 2024/25 output

  • Farmer margin pressure

Despite smaller area, yields are expected to improve to 3.6 MT/HA, partially offsetting area losses (see page 12 statistical table)

For MY2024/25:

  • Production increased to 1.86 MMT

  • Exports expected at 1.10 MMT, supported by strong EU and Australian demand

Ending stocks for MY2025/26 are forecast at 985,000 MT, nearly doubling year-over-year due to slower export pace and reduced area

Key Structural Themes

1️⃣ Weather recovery mitigated soybean risk
2️⃣ Domestic crush prioritized over whole bean exports
3️⃣ Sunflower profitability encouraging acreage shifts
4️⃣ Peanut contraction following prior glut

The contrast between soy stabilization and sunflower expansion signals shifting producer economics in Argentina’s oilseed complex.

🔎 CMB Outlook

Argentina’s oilseed complex enters MY2025/26 with improving weather conditions and firm processing margins.

Soybean production at 48 MMT reflects stabilization rather than expansion, with crush remaining the central demand pillar.

Sunflower emerges as the standout crop, with record output and strong global oil demand — particularly from India — reinforcing its profitability.

Peanut area contraction signals farmer caution after last season’s oversupply.

For global vegetable oil markets, Argentina’s sunflower expansion could add incremental supply pressure, while steady soybean crush supports meal availability.

Weather remains the primary variable through harvest completion.


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