Beans Market Outlook: Tight Supply and Stable Prices Amid Seasonal Slowdown

The global beans market is currently treading water as the recent Chinese Spring Festival holiday continues to shape trading activity. Across key production regions, most farmers remain reluctant to sell – a typical seasonal response – which has significantly reduced the availability of beans for trade. Downstream buyers, for their part, are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, largely restricting their purchases to immediate, essential needs rather than restocking aggressively. The combined effect is a market with limited liquidity and low transaction volumes.

In China, where imported and domestic beans play a major role in regional and global pricing, trader inventories are running from 50 to 350 tons, a clear contraction compared to the same period last year. With most orders for the season already completed, a broad swath of traders is pausing operations. Looking internationally, Uzbekistan’s new mung bean crop is showing solid yields, yet importers are also holding back on sales, most opting to keep inventory in anticipation of more favorable post-holiday conditions. As a result, over 90% of industry stakeholders expect prices to remain flat in the short term. With the Spring Festival ending shortly, a gradual uptick in tradeable supply is expected, but consensus is for prices to remain stable, particularly for domestic sprouting beans. This environment creates a calm before the expected post-holiday repositioning across the beans complex.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Specification	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mung beans	China	Organic, 99.5%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	1.58	-0.02	Stable
Mung beans	China	3.8 mm up, 99.5%	No	Beijing	FOB	1.49	0.00	Stable
Kidney beans (black, organic)	China	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	1.13	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Farmer selling has been slow due to the Spring Festival holiday. Market-available stock is limited as most agricultural producers prefer to hold back sales during this period, waiting for market activity to resume after the holiday.
• Demand: Downstream buyers—including processors and exporters—have shown little urgency, restricting purchases largely to immediate contractual obligations. Trading activity is sluggish, with most regional merchants having completed their orders and suspending operations for the season.
• Inventories: Stocks held by merchants now range between 50–350 tons, generally lower than last year’s equivalent period. This supports a stable-to-firm market base, as tight commercial inventories reduce downward price risk in the short term.
• Outlook: New crop mung bean supply from Uzbekistan is adequate, but most importers are not rushing to sell. Over 90% of market participants and importers expect prices to remain steady, with business activity only expected to increase gradually as the holiday period concludes.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Spring Festival has halted much of China’s rural selling and downstream order activity, causing a market lull and a tightening in visible supply.
• Importers and merchants are keenly focusing on inventory management, with many still displaying risk aversion amid uncertain post-holiday demand signals.
• Stable expectations are reinforced by lower stock levels and limited new ordering; inventories are significantly below seasonal norms, further limiting the risk of price surges or declines in the coming week.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• No major adverse weather events are currently reported in China’s bean regions or Uzbekistan—the key export competitor for mung beans. Climatic stability is likely to support the forecast for stable yields and gradual supply recovery as normal business resumes post-holiday.
• Near-term weather is supportive for transportation and logistics, with no significant disruptions expected.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Main Beans	Current Inventory Trend	Exporter/Importer Status
China	Mung, Kidney, Adzuki	Lower than LY	Exporter
Uzbekistan	Mung	Good new crop, holding stocks	Exporter
Brazil	Kidney, Alubia	Stable	Exporter
UK	Broad, Fava, German	Stable	Importer/Exporter

🔮 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For traders: Maintain inventory discipline, as low stock levels support stable or modestly higher prices.
• For processors: Consider incremental spot purchases to meet current demand but delay larger procurement until post-holiday activity normalizes.
• For importers: Monitor Uzbekistani offers closely; the majority of sellers are in a holding pattern, so supply may loosen in the coming weeks.
• Expect the beans market to remain stable through the next few days as trade resumes after the Chinese Spring Festival.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Bean Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Outlook
Beijing (FOB)	Mung beans (organic)	1.58	Stable
Beijing (FOB)	Mung beans (non-organic)	1.49	Stable
Beijing (FOB)	Kidney beans (black, organic)	1.13	Stable