Indian Buyers May Face Higher Pistachio, Fig and Raisin Prices Amid Gulf Crisis

In recent months, the global raisin market has encountered sharp headwinds, most notably driven by escalated geopolitical disruption in the Middle East—specifically the Gulf Crisis. The repercussions are especially acute for Indian buyers, who are confronting not only direct supply challenges but also surging costs for raisins, pistachios, and figs. Indian importers and traders must navigate a volatile landscape shaped by disrupted logistics, shipping delays in the Red Sea, and higher insurance rates, all of which are pushing up CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) prices for key dried fruits. Market participants report increased risk premiums as vessels take longer, costlier alternate routes to circumvent conflict zones, further squeezing the supply pipeline. The resulting knock-on effect is a decisive upward movement in raisin prices within both domestic Indian markets and in key exporting nations such as Turkey and Iran, with ripple effects extending across Europe and the Far East.

Turbulence in the Gulf directly impacts timely arrivals and inventory planning, intensifies competition for high-grade shipments, and drives sellers to hold out for better prices amid mounting uncertainty over availability. Traders, importers, and end-users must now recalibrate sourcing and inventory strategies to safeguard their supply chains against continued shipping volatility and ongoing global demand pressures. Adapting to this new normal will require flexibility, quick decision-making, and enhanced risk management.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Price Change	Update Date
Golden, Grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	2.29	2.25	+0.04	2026-02-28
Brown, Grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.84	1.8	+0.04	2026-02-28
Black, Grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.78	1.74	+0.04	2026-02-28
Feed, Brown	AF	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.95	2.00	-0.05	2026-02-28
Flame Jumbo	CL	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.50	2.55	-0.05	2026-02-28
Sultanas, Std No:9, Grade AA	CN	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.20	2.25	-0.05	2026-02-28
Nr. 9, RTU	TR	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.90	2.95	-0.05	2026-02-28
Sultanas, Type 9, STD	CN	Hamburg, DE	FCA	2.16	2.16	0.00	2026-02-19
Sultanas, Type 9, Grade RTU	TR	Malatya, TR	CIF	2.40	2.40	0.00	2026-02-18
Sultanas, Type 9, Grade A	TR	Malatya, TR	FOB	2.50	2.36	+0.14	2026-02-18
Sultanas, Type 8, Grade A	TR	Malatya, TR	FOB	2.45	2.32	+0.13	2026-02-18
Sultanas, Type 10, Grade A	TR	Malatya, TR	FOB	3.00	2.57	+0.43	2026-02-18
Sultanas, Type 9, Grade A, Organic	TR	Malatya, TR	FOB	3.20	3.00	+0.20	2026-02-18

🌍 Supply & Demand

• The Gulf Crisis has interrupted key maritime routes for Indian imports, delaying arrivals and raising costs for raisins sourced from the Middle East and Central Asia.
• Buyers face increased transaction risks and are compelled to pay higher premiums to secure shipments on time.
• Major exporters like Turkey are taking advantage by lifting their offer prices, as global buyers compete for available high-grade lots.
• Indian demand is typically robust during festival and wedding seasons, and current uncertainty may lead to strategic pre-buying, further tightening the market.
• Import-dependent regions, particularly India, are most exposed to supply-side shocks and price escalation due to shipping bottlenecks and insurance hikes.

📊 Fundamentals

• Export volumes: Turkish, Afghan, and Iranian raisin shipments are all facing challenges due to shifting maritime logistics and rising costs.
• Inventories: Many Indian and Gulf-based traders report critically low carry-over stocks, with existing inventories quickly being depleted amid delayed replacement cargoes.
• Currency & Freight: Freight and insurance premiums have surged for cargoes passing through the Red Sea, amplifying landed cost for Asian and European buyers.
• Speculative Positioning: Sellers, anticipating further price increases, frequently withhold product, tightening spot availability and lending further support to the bullish undertone.

🌦️ Weather & Growing Regions Outlook

• Turkey: Spring rains reported in the Manisa region are so far favorable for vine development, but persistent cloud cover may raise the risk of disease—close monitoring is advised.
• Iran: Mild winter conditions expected to support timely bud burst, although late spring frosts remain a tail risk for quality and yields.
• India: The Maharashtra region (key for Indian exports) is entering the critical late-ripening phase, with steady temperatures and irrigation; however, any abrupt heat wave could affect berry sizing and yields.

🌍 Global Production & Stocks

• Turkey: Largest exporter, production for the current year is steady, but a portion of the crop is yet to be committed to export contracts.
• Iran & Afghanistan: Facing logistical constraints and higher costs; market participants expect lower global shipment volumes in the coming quarter.
• India: Crucial for Asian demand; inventories at importer warehouses are running low, putting upward pressure on spot and forward prices.
• China, Chile: Alternative supply sources, but unable to fully relieve tightening global availability given current premium for prime Turkish and Iranian grades.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• • Indian import buyers: Secure forward contracts to mitigate further price escalation, especially for premium and festival grades.
• • Exporters: Hold back on immediate bulk sales if storage allows, as continued supply chain disruptions are likely to maintain or elevate current price levels.
• • Food processing & retail: Consider incremental purchases and build strategic reserves ahead of anticipated further spikes.
• • Spot buyers: Prepare for limited spot offerings and be ready to pay a premium for urgent requirements.
• • Monitor: Gulf shipping lane status closely and watch for updates on Manisa (Turkey) and Maharashtra (India) harvest progress.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Outlook (3 days)
New Delhi (Golden/Brown/Black Grade AA, FOB)	2.29 / 1.84 / 1.78	Firm to higher — Ongoing shipping risks and low stocks expected to keep prices elevated. Further moderate upticks likely, especially for golden and brown grades.
Malatya, Turkey (Sultanas Grade A, FOB)	2.50 (type 9) / 2.45 (type 8) / 3.00 (type 10)	Firm — Rain risk monitored; exporter price discipline will sustain elevated levels.
Dordrecht, NL (Mixed origins, FCA)	1.95 (feed) / 2.50 (flame jumbo) / 2.20 (CN Sultana)	Stable — Slight price correction possible, but fundamentals remain supportive.

Overall outlook: Price risks remain significantly skewed to the upside in the near term, with Indian and Middle Eastern demand at particular risk for further disruptions. Buyers are advised to act decisively to manage exposure and secure necessary volumes.