Australia’s Macadamia Crop Set for Strong Recovery: Industry Rides Favorable Weather Into 2026

The Australian nuts market, particularly macadamias, is positioned for a substantial rebound in 2026. After a volatile 2025 marked by severe weather and disappointing yields, the outlook is notably more optimistic thanks to a combination of favorable growing conditions and the maturation of younger orchards. Early indications from growers highlight a strong, slightly early flowering period and robust cross-pollination, laying a solid foundation for improved crop retention and nut set compared to the previous season. Notably, a climate-based production model by the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries pegs the 2026 in-shell macadamia forecast at 59,080 tonnes (3.5% moisture) or roughly 63,350 tonnes (10% moisture)—up almost 35% from 2025’s 43,800 tonnes.

While the sector may not break records this year, the growth trajectory owes much to investments in new plantings from 2019–2022. These younger orchards are now bearing fruit at scale, adding both volume and resilience to the supply base. Nonetheless, the market remains acutely sensitive to weather; the favorable estimates presuppose the absence of cyclones or adverse events through the critical late summer–autumn period. As such, all eyes will be on the skies—any shift in climatic conditions could move the needle substantially before harvest. Industry analysts advise monitoring mid-season updates for adjustments to the outlook, scheduled for May–June 2026, with final figures due December. In this optimistic context, spot prices for Brazil nuts (a close reference in the European market) remain stable, reflecting cautious optimism and steady demand.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Brazil nuts	NL	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	6.50	6.50	0.00%	Neutral/Stabilizing

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Australia’s 2026 macadamia output: Projected at 59,080 tonnes in-shell (3.5% moisture), a nearly 35% increase from 2025’s 43,800 tonnes.
• Drivers of recovery: Improved weather, stronger flowering, better-than-expected nut set, and higher crop retention are all cited by growers and analysts.
• New plantings: Large orchard areas planted 2019–2022 have reached productive maturity, boosting national supply capacity.
• Demand outlook: Stable pricing of alternative nuts (e.g., Brazil nuts) in Europe suggests balanced consumption and trade flows for now.

📊 Fundamentals

• Major risk: Weather remains a critical factor. The forecast is contingent on the absence of cyclones or further severe weather in key regions through harvest time.
• Productivity gains: Young orchards add not just volume but resilience to climatic variability, with several regions reporting above-average performance in newly established plots.
• Forecast credibility: Scientific modeling underpins the projections, but periodic updates are expected—look for a mid-season update in May–June 2026 and a final figure in December 2026.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• Prevailing favorable conditions have driven the positive production scenario; mild weather and good rain distribution have promoted flowering and nut retention.
• Key risk window: late summer through early autumn (potential cyclone season) could materially affect yield if adverse weather develops near harvest.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparisons

Country	Est. 2026 Production (in-shell, tonnes)	Change vs. 2025
Australia	59,080	+35%
Brazil (Brazil nuts)	—	Stable
Africa (select macadamia growers)	—	Stable

📌 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Monitor Australian weather closely—early disruption could tighten supply and support prices.
• Diversify supply sources or contract ahead for macadamias to manage weather risk, especially before the mid-season update.
• European market for Brazil nuts is stable; leverage this price reference for substitution or hedging strategies.
• Prepare for possible volatility: final crop numbers remain subject to review until harvest completes in late 2026.
• Stay tuned for May–June official update—this could trigger new buying or selling activity depending on the season’s development.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Market	Product	Forecasted Price (EUR/kg)	Trend
EU Market	Brazil nuts	6.50	Stable
AU Market	Macadamia (in-shell)	N/A*	—

*No spot price quoted due to pre-harvest phase and forecast-based market conditions.