Walnut Market in Flux: India Faces Tight Supply Amid Global Increase

The global walnut market is entering a pivotal season as contrasting production trends set the stage for shifting trade dynamics in 2025–26. According to authoritative industry sources, worldwide walnut production is set to rise by 8% to an estimated 2.8 million tonnes in-shell, with major players such as the U.S. and Türkiye increasing their outputs. However, this global upswing is juxtaposed by a notable contraction in India, where output is anticipated to fall by roughly 9% to 0.30 lakh tonnes. This decline in India – one of Asia’s leading walnut producers – is attributed to reduced yields in crucial growing regions and is expected to tighten domestic supplies.

With global supply set for growth but localized contraction in the Indian market, price volatility and trade realignment are likely, particularly for buyers and sellers in South Asia. Meanwhile, Chile (165,000 tonnes) and several European countries are also seeing downward production revisions, potentially moderating the impact of the overall supply growth. These divergent trends are prompting stakeholders to monitor market signals closely as they formulate their trading strategies for the coming season.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price	Currency	Change (WoW)	Market Sentiment
Walnut kernels	Light quarter	CN	Dalian	FOB	3.30	EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
Walnut kernels	Light amber pieces, 8-12 mm	CN	Dalian	FOB	2.25	EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
Walnut kernels	Light pieces, 8-12 mm	CN	Dalian	FOB	2.80	EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
Walnut kernels	Light broken, 4-8 mm	CN	Dalian	FOB	2.90	EUR/kg	0.00	Stable
Walnut kernels	Light halves, organic	IN	New Delhi	FOB	5.30	EUR/kg	0.00	Firm (India)
Walnut kernels	Light halves, organic 80%	US	London	FOB	4.50	EUR/kg	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global production: Expected to reach 2.8 million tonnes in 2025–26 (+8% YoY).
• Total global supply: Around 2.9 million tonnes due to higher yields in the US and Türkiye.
• India: Production decline from 0.33 to 0.30 lakh tonnes could tighten domestic supply and lift local prices.
• Chile: 6% lower output than earlier expected (estimated at 165,000 tonnes).
• European countries (Ukraine, Spain, Italy, Portugal): All see revised downward production forecasts, partially balancing global gains.
• Market sentiment: While global supply is up, localized tightness in India may impact regional prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• US and Türkiye: Increased production likely to exert downward pressure on global prices unless offset by demand growth.
• India: Reduced output will likely lead to firmer prices locally and potential increases in imports to cover shortfalls.
• Chile and Europe: Lower production could support market prices in the medium term, especially for premium and specialty grades.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India: Lower output attributed to adverse weather in key growing regions.
• Major growing regions (US, Türkiye): No major reported weather events; yields expected to be robust.
• Chile & Europe: Production downgrades likely due to weather related factors impacting yields.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

• United States: Leading the global upturn, solidifying its role as a dominant exporter.
• Türkiye: Adding more supply, increasing its global market share.
• India: Production decline may see it shift from current trading patterns and potentially seek more imports.
• Chile, Ukraine, Spain, Italy, Portugal: All registering either lower than expected or reduced crop size.

⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian buyers should anticipate tighter domestic supply and potential price increases – early procurement is advisable.
• Exporters in the US and Türkiye may benefit from increased demand, particularly from regions facing production declines.
• Monitor developments in Chile and Europe for possible mid-season corrections in supply and pricing.
• With global supply rising, price competition among exporters could intensify – leverage short-term market dips to secure contracts.
• Domestic market players in India should review inventory strategies amid anticipated supply constraints.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Product	Price (EUR/kg)	Direction	Comment
CN (Dalian)	Walnut kernels (light quarter)	3.30	Stable	High global supply, but steady demand and no price change expected.
IN (Delhi)	Walnut kernels (light halves, organic)	5.30	Firm	Domestic supply tightness pushing prices up.
GB (London)	Walnut kernels (US, light halves, organic 80%)	4.50	Stable	No major supply changes expected in short-term.