Chinese Dried Apple Prices Hold Flat as CN Weather Turns Cooler

The Chinese dried apple market is entering mid-March in a notably steady but not entirely relaxed mood. Spot indications in Europe for Chinese-origin dried apple cubes delivered FCA Dordrecht were unchanged on 13 March 2026, with 5–7 mm material at EUR 4.35/kg, 8–10 mm at EUR 4.25/kg, and 10–12 mm at EUR 4.30/kg. That means the market has shown virtually no week-on-week movement through late February and early March, pointing to a price-led equilibrium rather than a demand-driven rally. Stability, however, should not be confused with lack of risk. Broader apple-sector signals from China suggest a more nuanced backdrop: USDA’s latest 2025/26 outlook put China’s fresh apple crop at 47.0 million tons, down from 49.3 million tons in 2024/25, while domestic consumption is also expected to ease, and exports remain active. At the same time, recent industry reporting indicates China’s wider apple economy continues to expand export channels and processing integration, with fresh apple exports in 2024 reported at nearly 981 thousand tons, up more than 23% year on year, and export revenue from other apple products rising sharply. For dried apple buyers, this creates a mixed picture: raw material availability is not collapsing, but weather sensitivity in northern producing provinces and stronger value-chain competition for fruit streams could still tighten processing margins. In the immediate term, CN-focused weather looks mostly non-threatening for the next three days, with cool, damp conditions in Shaanxi and cool-to-mild conditions in Shandong limiting near-term stress. The result is a market that remains price-stable today, but still deserves close monitoring for spring weather risk, export pull, and processing economics.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Apple dried cubes 5–7 mm	China	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	EUR 4.35	0.0%	Stable
Apple dried cubes 8–10 mm	China	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	EUR 4.25	0.0%	Stable to slightly firm
Apple dried cubes 10–12 mm	China	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	EUR 4.30	0.0%	Stable

The available price series shows no change from 20 February through 13 March 2026. This flat curve suggests that the market is currently being anchored by existing inventory, orderly nearby demand, and the absence of a fresh weather shock in China. The narrow spread between cuts also implies balanced grading demand rather than a shortage in a specific size class.

📌 Price interpretation

• 5–7 mm remains the premium cut in the current offer set at EUR 4.35/kg.
• 8–10 mm is the cheapest line at EUR 4.25/kg, likely reflecting the most competitive and liquid specification.
• 10–12 mm at EUR 4.30/kg indicates only a modest premium to mainstream industrial demand.
• A flat week-on-week structure usually signals that buyers are covering nearby needs but not chasing volume.

🌍 Supply & Demand

China remains the dominant force in the global apple complex. USDA’s December 2025 fruit outlook estimates China’s 2025/26 fresh apple production at 47.0 million tons, down from 49.3 million tons in 2024/25, while still leaving the country by far the world’s largest producer. Domestic consumption is forecast at 46.19 million tons, down from 48.45 million tons the prior season, suggesting that lower output is partly offset by slightly softer internal use. This matters for dried apples because processing availability depends not only on total harvest size, but also on how much fruit is diverted into fresh channels, juice, and other value-added streams.

Recent industry reporting points to continued expansion of China’s apple export ecosystem. A March 2026 sector report noted that China exported 980,900 tons of fresh apples in 2024, up 23.24% year on year, while export revenue from other apple products, mainly concentrated apple juice, rose sharply. That is relevant for dried apple cubes because stronger export momentum across the apple value chain can support raw fruit prices and processing competition, even when dried apple quotations themselves look calm.

• Supportive factor: export channels remain active and increasingly diversified.
• Neutral factor: current dried apple offers show no immediate shortage premium.
• Risk factor: if spring weather trims the 2026 raw apple outlook in Shaanxi or Shandong, processors may become less flexible on forward pricing.
• Counterweight: softer Chinese domestic fresh consumption could reduce some pressure on total fruit availability.

📊 Fundamentals

Country/Region	2024/25 Apple Production (mn tons)	2025/26 Apple Production (mn tons)	Trend
China	49.3	47.0	Down
European Union	11.54	11.52	Flat
United States	4.78	5.03	Up
Turkey	4.57	4.30	Down
India	2.55	2.61	Up

For dried apple market participants, the key takeaway is that China’s supply base remains very large in absolute terms, but the year-on-year reduction is meaningful enough to keep processors cautious. In parallel, recent reporting from Shandong and broader northern China has highlighted weather-related yield sensitivity, including frost episodes and heavy rain impacts during the last production cycle. Even if these reports refer to fresh apples, they are important because downgraded fruit often shifts into industrial channels such as juice or drying, affecting both availability and quality segmentation.

📦 Trade and processing signals

• Shaanxi remains a core apple hub, including storage, logistics, and processing infrastructure.
• Shandong growers continue to invest in varieties and marketing channels, helping sustain commercial throughput.
• China’s apple industry is increasingly integrated across production, processing, and distribution, which can improve resilience but also intensify competition for fruit streams.

🌦️ Weather outlook for CN apple regions

Weather analysis is focused on China as requested. For the next three days, conditions in major apple zones look mostly benign rather than threatening. In Xi’an, Shaanxi, Saturday 14 March is cool and wet with rain and a high near 6°C, followed by 10°C on Sunday and 14°C on Monday. In Yantai, Shandong, Saturday is cloudy with a chance of showers and a high near 6°C, followed by 8°C on Sunday and 8°C on Monday. These temperatures are cool, but the forecast does not currently suggest a severe frost event in the main reference locations.

• Shaanxi: rain and low temperatures may slow fieldwork and keep orchards in a cautious early-season posture, but near-term moisture is not inherently bearish for yields.
• Shandong: cool, mostly stable weather reduces immediate stress, though continued monitoring is needed because this province has shown sensitivity to heavy rain and cold events in prior seasons.
• Market effect: near-term weather is broadly neutral for dried apple pricing; it does not justify an immediate risk premium.

🧭 Recent market drivers

• Chinese dried apple cube prices in the available market data were unchanged across all listed cuts in the latest week.
• USDA 2025/26 outlook shows lower Chinese apple production year on year, which is mildly supportive for processors.
• China’s broader apple export machine remains active, with strong recent reporting on export growth and processing integration.
• Past-season frost and rain events in northern China remain a reminder that spring weather can quickly alter sentiment.
• The EUR/CNY reference rate around early March 2026 near 8.01 means Chinese-origin costs translated into euro terms remain relatively manageable for European buyers, limiting FX-driven price shocks.

📆 Trading outlook

• Buyers: current flat prices offer a reasonable window for nearby coverage, especially for standard 8–10 mm and 10–12 mm specifications.
• Importers: avoid assuming stability will persist into late spring; weather risk in CN orchards can reprice sentiment quickly.
• Industrial users: monitor competition from juice and other processed apple channels, not just dried fruit offers.
• Traders: watch for any shift in Chinese export activity or logistics that could tighten prompt European availability.
• Risk management: stagger purchases rather than fully front-loading, as the current market is stable but not deeply discounted.

🔮 3-day regional price forecast

Region / Market Reference	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Price View
CN-origin dried apple cubes 5–7 mm, FCA Dordrecht	EUR 4.35/kg	EUR 4.35–4.38/kg	EUR 4.35–4.40/kg	Stable
CN-origin dried apple cubes 8–10 mm, FCA Dordrecht	EUR 4.25/kg	EUR 4.25–4.28/kg	EUR 4.25–4.30/kg	Stable
CN-origin dried apple cubes 10–12 mm, FCA Dordrecht	EUR 4.30/kg	EUR 4.30–4.33/kg	EUR 4.30–4.35/kg	Stable

The 3-day forecast is based on unchanged spot indications, neutral CN weather in key apple regions, and the absence of a visible short-term supply disruption. A mild firming bias is possible only if buyers step in for restocking or if fresh weather alerts emerge from northern China.