China Pumpkin Kernels Hold Firm as Spring Weather Turns Supportive

Pumpkin seed kernel prices in China are entering mid-March 2026 with a notably firm tone, but without the kind of momentum that would suggest a breakout rally. The latest FOB indications from Dalian and Beijing show a market that is broadly stable to slightly higher versus late February, with premium grades still commanding a clear quality premium and lower grades moving more selectively. Dalian remains the higher-priced origin in the current data set, with GWS Grade AA at EUR 3.40/kg and Shine Skin Grade AA at EUR 3.50/kg, while Beijing offers remain more mixed, ranging from EUR 2.21/kg for GWS Grade A up to EUR 3.36/kg for organic Shine Skin Grade AA. The key message for buyers is that the market is not tight enough to force aggressive restocking, but it is also not weak enough to trigger broad discounting. Export sentiment appears cautious rather than bearish: trade remains active in premium food-grade segments, while lower grades face slower turnover. Weather in North China and Northeast China is currently turning milder over the next few days, with Dalian and Beijing both expected to see mostly dry to partly sunny conditions after a cool start, which is broadly favorable for logistics and early field preparation rather than immediately price-bullish. Wider market commentary still points to China’s dominant role in global pumpkin seed supply, but also to softer overseas buying and relatively comfortable inventories compared with the stronger shortage narrative seen late in 2025. In short, this is a price-led market with firm offers, selective demand, and a near-term outlook of stability with only a mild upward bias for top grades if export inquiries improve further.

📈 Prices

Latest FOB China pumpkin kernel prices

Location	Product	Spec	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Previous price (EUR/kg)	Weekly change	Sentiment
Dalian	Pumpkin seeds kernels	GWS, Grade AA, 99.95%	EUR 3.40	EUR 3.40	0.0%	Stable
Dalian	Pumpkin seeds kernels	Shine Skin, Grade AA, 99.95%	EUR 3.50	EUR 3.50	0.0%	Stable/Firm
Dalian	Pumpkin seeds kernels	GWS, Grade A, 99.95%	EUR 3.20	EUR 3.20	0.0%	Stable
Dalian	Pumpkin seeds kernels	Shine Skin, Grade A, 99.95%	EUR 2.80	EUR 2.80	0.0%	Stable
Beijing	Pumpkin seed kernels	Shine Skin, Grade AA, Organic, 99.95%	EUR 3.36	EUR 3.33	+0.9%	Firm
Beijing	Pumpkin seed kernels	Shine Skin, Grade AA, 99.95%	EUR 3.19	EUR 3.16	+0.9%	Firm
Beijing	Pumpkin seed kernels	Shine Skin, Grade A+, 99.95%	EUR 2.25	EUR 2.22	+1.4%	Firm
Beijing	Pumpkin seed kernels	GWS, Grade AA, 99.95%	EUR 2.72	EUR 2.66	+2.3%	Firm
Beijing	Pumpkin seed kernels	GWS, Grade A, 99.95%	EUR 2.21	EUR 2.17	+1.8%	Firm

Price read-through

• Dalian prices were unchanged week on week, signaling a market waiting for fresh export business rather than chasing higher offers.
• Beijing prices rose modestly across all listed grades, suggesting better nearby bid support for smaller-volume or higher-value transactions.
• The premium structure remains intact: AA grades and organic lots continue to outperform standard grades.
• The spread between Dalian and Beijing remains wide in some GWS categories, indicating origin-, stock-, and buyer-specific pricing rather than a single national market clearing level.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Current market drivers

• Supply: China remains the dominant global supplier of pumpkin seeds and kernels, and recent market commentary continues to describe inventories as adequate rather than critically tight.
• Demand: Export demand appears selective. Premium food-grade kernels continue to attract interest, but broad-based buying remains cautious.
• Trade tone: The market is better described as low-activity and firm than actively bullish. Sellers are defending offers, but buyers are not yet showing panic coverage.
• Grade segmentation: Higher-end shine skin and AA grades are more resilient because importers serving snack, bakery, and health-food channels tend to prioritize appearance and purity.

Regional interpretation for CN

• Dalian is acting as the firmer benchmark for export-oriented premium kernels.
• Beijing shows more weekly movement, which may reflect smaller lot negotiations, differentiated quality, or more responsive spot business.
• For the next few days, logistics conditions in North and Northeast China should improve as weather turns drier and milder.

📊 Fundamentals

What the price history says

Reference	Late Feb 2026	Mid Mar 2026	Change
Dalian GWS AA	EUR 3.40	EUR 3.40	Flat
Dalian Shine Skin AA	EUR 3.50	EUR 3.50	Flat
Dalian GWS A	EUR 3.20	EUR 3.20	Flat
Dalian Shine Skin A	EUR 2.80	EUR 2.80	Flat
Beijing Shine Skin AA Organic	EUR 3.33	EUR 3.36	Up
Beijing Shine Skin AA	EUR 3.18	EUR 3.19	Up
Beijing GWS AA	EUR 2.66	EUR 2.72	Up
Beijing GWS A	EUR 2.18	EUR 2.21	Up

• The market has been remarkably steady since late February, especially in Dalian.
• Beijing’s incremental gains suggest firmer domestic/export replacement values for some grades.
• There is no evidence in the current price data of a sharp correction lower.
• There is also no sign yet of a strong weather-driven supply scare.

Global context

• Industry commentary in 2025 and early 2026 has highlighted weaker export demand at times, but also China’s continued dominance in global pumpkin seed trade.
• Some reports late in 2025 emphasized tighter supply and elevated prices; more recent commentary suggests the market has shifted into a steadier consolidation phase.
• That makes nearby price direction highly dependent on order flow rather than on major acreage or stock shocks.

☁️ Weather outlook for CN

Dalian and North/Northeast China

• From March 14 to March 17, 2026, Dalian is expected to shift from cool, cloudy conditions with some rain/drizzle to partly sunny and mostly dry weather, with daytime highs around 6–10°C.
• This pattern is generally favorable for transport, port handling, and early seasonal field preparation.
• There is no immediate weather threat here that would justify a sharp near-term price spike.

Beijing and North China

• From March 14 to March 17, 2026, Beijing is forecast to see mostly dry weather with highs around 11–15°C and cool nights.
• These conditions are supportive for smooth logistics and stable merchandising.
• For pumpkin kernels, the weather impact is therefore mostly neutral-to-supportive rather than disruptive over the next three days.

Weather market implication

• Short term: neutral for prices.
• Logistics: slightly supportive, because drier and milder weather reduces friction in inland movement and export preparation.
• Crop outlook: early-season dryness in parts of Liaoning has been noted in broader China weather commentary, so traders should continue monitoring pre-planting soil moisture, but this is not yet translating into immediate kernel price stress.

📌 Trading outlook

• Buyers: Cover nearby premium needs steadily rather than waiting for a major break lower; current evidence points to stability, not collapse.
• Sellers: Continue defending AA and organic premiums; these segments are showing the best resilience.
• Importers: Watch Dalian as the lead reference for export-grade firmness.
• Processors: Lower grades remain less explosive than top grades, so substitution strategies may still protect margins.
• Risk watch: Any pickup in export tenders or renewed weather concern in Northeast China could tighten nearby offers quickly, especially in AA grades.

📆 3-day regional price forecast (CN)

Region / Market	Product reference	Current (EUR/kg)	3-day view	Forecast range (EUR/kg)	Bias
Dalian	GWS Grade AA	EUR 3.40	Stable	EUR 3.38-3.42	Neutral
Dalian	Shine Skin Grade AA	EUR 3.50	Stable to firm	EUR 3.48-3.53	Slightly firm
Dalian	GWS Grade A	EUR 3.20	Stable	EUR 3.18-3.22	Neutral
Beijing	Shine Skin Grade AA	EUR 3.19	Stable to firm	EUR 3.17-3.22	Slightly firm
Beijing	GWS Grade AA	EUR 2.72	Stable to firm	EUR 2.70-2.75	Slightly firm
Beijing	GWS Grade A	EUR 2.21	Stable	EUR 2.20-2.24	Neutral

• Forecast basis: unchanged to slightly firmer spot values, mild and mostly dry weather in CN, and no strong evidence of immediate supply disruption.
• Main upside trigger: fresh export orders for premium kernels.
• Main downside trigger: continued slow overseas buying and seller competition in lower grades.