The drying of the kernels has started.
After the prolonged period of bad weather, farmers have now started picking and drying the kernels this week. The weather outlook for the coming week is not dire either, so we can expect the first batches to be delivered to local traders and crackers next week.
According to the TMO, there are registrations for about 19,000 mt so far. This is already a relatively high value for this point in time and can be explained by the fact that the price on the open market has currently settled at 24.5 – 25.0 TRY for the 2021 harvest. This is quite a way away from the TMO bid of 26.5 TRY/kg. The market leader will probably announce its purchase bid in the middle of the coming week and probably only for shell products and not raw kernels. Thus, the capacities of the crackers will remain accessible for the export and domestic market for the time being.
As far as quality is concerned, it is still too early to make any statements, but there are already indications that the kernel size distribution will be similar to last year. This means that kernels of size 11-13 mm and 13-15 mm will again be identical in price, and the difference to kernels of size 9-11 mm will also be smaller, as in previous years.
In terms of supply and demand, we continue to see interest similar to the previous week. However, buyers are still waiting, as prices tend to fall, even though the exchange rate has deteriorated. This is because the price in the open market has moved further down, and some sellers are aggressively passing this on to make deals. As a result, we continue to see significant differences in the offers from individual producers, especially for processed goods.
We expect the actual start of the new season for the coming week, although this should still be sluggish. Only after that do we expect momentum to set in.
Concerning the exchange rate, we see a further increase in the strength of the Turkish lira, which, however, has not yet had a significant impact on export price indications.
- Farmers now start picking and drying the kernels.
- The market price for the 2021 harvest continues to decline slightly.
- TMO has already received applications for approx. 19,000 mt. We consider this a high number for the current time.
- Announcement of the market leader’s purchase offer for in-shell commodities expected for 01.09.
- More demand from Europe again, but still a wait-and-see attitude due to the recent downward price corrections.
Turkish lira stronger again in the course of the week.