Onion Prices Ease as India Supply Builds and Egypt Export Window Opens

Fresh onion and onion ingredient prices are broadly soft to stable in mid-March 2026, with the strongest immediate pressure coming from India’s heavy seasonal supply and the most important balancing factor coming from Egypt’s active export window. The price data show a clear downward drift rather than a collapse: Egyptian fresh onion FOB Cairo is now quoted at EUR 0.78/kg, down from EUR 0.82/kg a month earlier, while Indian dehydrated and processed onion values have also edged lower, with white onion powder at EUR 1.52/kg, grade-B onion powder at EUR 1.25/kg, organic onion powder at EUR 2.60/kg, and organic onion flakes at EUR 5.10/kg. This pattern suggests that buyers are seeing better nearby availability, especially from India, where Maharashtra’s onion belt is moving into the key rabi harvest window and market commentary continues to point to supply pressure, farmer distress, and weak wholesale realization as arrivals increase. At the same time, Egypt is entering a commercially important period for onion exports, with the country’s broader fresh-produce sector still performing strongly and onions remaining a meaningful export line. Demand signals from Egyptian exporters appear mixed rather than weak across the board: some trade channels report slower starts, while others describe stable production and solid interest from Europe, the Gulf, and Asia. Weather over the next three days is not overtly threatening in either of the focus regions. Cairo is expected to stay mild to warm with highs roughly 22–27°C, which should support harvest, curing, and logistics, while Nashik in Maharashtra is forecast at a much hotter 34–36°C under mostly sunny conditions, which favors fieldwork and drying but can accelerate moisture loss and raise storage-management risk if the heat persists. For market participants, the near-term takeaway is straightforward: onion prices remain primarily supply-driven, with Indian processed products under pressure from ample raw material availability and Egyptian fresh onions likely to stay competitive as export programs build. Unless weather turns disruptive or policy/trade flows change suddenly, the next few sessions point more to sideways-to-soft pricing than to a sharp rebound.

📈 Price Snapshot

Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Trend	Sentiment
Onion powder grade-B	India	New Delhi	FOB	EUR 1.25	-2.3%	Lower	Bearish
Onion powder white	India	New Delhi	FOB	EUR 1.52	-1.9%	Lower	Bearish
Fresh onion	Egypt	Cairo	FOB	EUR 0.78	-2.5%	Lower	Soft
Organic onion powder	India	New Delhi	FOB	EUR 2.60	-0.8%	Lower	Soft
Organic onion flakes	India	New Delhi	FOB	EUR 5.10	-0.6%	Lower	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand

🇮🇳 India

• Maharashtra remains the key pricing center for Indian onions, and current reporting points to a supply-heavy environment as fresh arrivals increase during the rabi marketing period.
• Farmer groups have continued to complain about low realizations, linking weak prices to strong arrivals and lingering policy uncertainty around exports.
• APEDA states that India exported about 1.15 million metric tons of fresh onions in FY 2024-25, with major destinations including Bangladesh, Malaysia, the UAE, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Kuwait, confirming that export channels remain important for clearing surplus.
• For dehydrated products, softer fresh onion values generally reduce raw-material costs, which helps explain the gradual decline in powder and flakes quotations seen in the supplied price series.

🇪🇬 Egypt

• Egypt’s fresh onion export season is active, and the country shipped about 288,000 tons of onions in 2025 according to Egyptian official reporting summarized by Daily News Egypt.
• Trade commentary suggests mixed early-season demand: some exporters reported a slower campaign start, while others described stable production and solid demand from Europe, the Gulf, and Asia.
• Egypt’s competitiveness is supported by its broader momentum in fresh produce exports and by its seasonal fit for European and regional buyers.
• The current FOB Cairo fresh onion price of EUR 0.78/kg indicates Egypt is still pricing aggressively enough to stay relevant in nearby export programs.

📊 Market Drivers

• Seasonal supply pressure in India: rising arrivals from Maharashtra are the clearest bearish driver for both fresh and processed onion values.
• Export policy sensitivity: India’s onion trade has been heavily influenced by export restrictions and duties in recent seasons, which continues to shape buyer confidence and farmer sentiment even when formal curbs are eased.
• Egyptian export window: Egypt’s seasonal availability is improving, and exporters are targeting Europe, Gulf markets, and Asia, keeping competitive pressure on regional fresh onion trade.
• Demand split by product: fresh onions are facing abundant nearby supply, while organic and processed products remain more resilient but still trend softer because input costs are easing.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Focus Regions

Egypt (Cairo / export corridor)

• March 14-17 forecast: highs near 22°C, 24°C, 25°C, and 27°C, with mostly dry conditions and some haze/sun.
• Market effect: favorable harvest and packing weather, limited risk to quality, and supportive logistics for FOB execution.

India (Nashik, Maharashtra onion belt)

• March 14-17 forecast: highs near 36°C, 35°C, 34°C, and 35°C with mostly sunny conditions.
• Market effect: good for harvest progress and drying, but sustained heat can increase shrinkage, shorten storage life, and pressure farmers to market onions quickly.

📉 What the Current Price Data Say

Product	14 Feb 2026	13 Mar 2026	Change
Onion powder grade-B (IN)	EUR 1.30	EUR 1.25	-3.8%
Onion powder white (IN)	EUR 1.57	EUR 1.52	-3.2%
Fresh onion (EG)	EUR 0.82	EUR 0.78	-4.9%
Organic onion powder (IN)	EUR 2.64	EUR 2.60	-1.5%
Organic onion flakes (IN)	EUR 5.15	EUR 5.10	-1.0%

• The strongest percentage decline in the supplied series is Egyptian fresh onion, suggesting export competition and seasonal availability are weighing on prices.
• Indian processed onion products are softer, but the declines are orderly rather than disorderly, implying steady demand is partly cushioning the market.
• No product in the current data set shows a near-term bullish reversal yet.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Buyers: maintain a hand-to-mouth strategy for nearby fresh onion purchases; the market still looks well supplied.
• Importers of Egyptian fresh onion: use the current weather-friendly shipping window to secure prompt cargoes before any late-season logistical tightening.
• Buyers of Indian powder/flakes: continue negotiating for discounts on volume, especially for standard grades, as raw onion availability remains comfortable.
• Sellers in India: watch Maharashtra arrivals and any export-policy headlines closely; these are the fastest route to a sentiment change.
• Sellers in Egypt: focus on quality consistency and destination timing; demand appears present, but not strong enough to absorb quality slippage without price concessions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region / Marker	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Bias
Egypt fresh onion FOB Cairo	EUR 0.78/kg	EUR 0.77-0.79	EUR 0.77-0.79	EUR 0.76-0.79	Sideways to soft
India onion powder grade-B FOB New Delhi	EUR 1.25/kg	EUR 1.24-1.26	EUR 1.23-1.26	EUR 1.23-1.25	Soft
India onion powder white FOB New Delhi	EUR 1.52/kg	EUR 1.50-1.53	EUR 1.50-1.52	EUR 1.49-1.52	Soft

• Forecast basis: current offer trajectory, strong Indian seasonal supply, active Egyptian export availability, and benign 3-day weather in Cairo and Nashik.
• Upside risk: sudden export-policy change in India or unexpectedly strong buying from Gulf/EU destinations.
• Downside risk: faster-than-expected arrivals in Maharashtra or weak early-season order flow for Egyptian onions.