Cinnamon FOB India–Vietnam: Mild Softening but Fundamentally Tight

The cinnamon market entering mid-March 2026 is showing a subtle but notable softening in FOB offers from both India and Vietnam, even as underlying fundamentals remain structurally tight. Organic Ceylon and cassia grades out of New Delhi have eased by around 0.5–0.7% week-on-week, while Vietnamese cassia types ex-Hanoi are down by a similar margin. This dip is occurring against the backdrop of record export performance from Vietnam in 2025 – with cinnamon shipments reaching roughly 120,000 tonnes and around USD 300 million in export value – and a strong start to 2026, where January exports topped 8,800 tonnes, up 21% year-on-year. India remains both a major import destination for Vietnamese cassia and a growing exporter of higher-value Ceylon and organic cassia to Europe and North America, markets where demand for sustainably certified and residue-controlled cinnamon continues to expand. Weather-wise, the onset of hotter, drier pre-monsoon conditions in South India and seasonally warm but not yet extreme conditions in core cassia belts of northern Vietnam have so far not triggered any acute supply concerns, but they remain a watchpoint for 2026/27 yield prospects.

At the same time, consumer and industrial demand in key import regions is holding relatively firm. The EU saw cinnamon import values climb to one of the highest levels on record in 2025, with India by far its main trading partner by value, underscoring the premium that European buyers are willing to pay for compliant and traceable origin. In the US market, a broad-based expansion in usage of ground cinnamon in bakery, beverage and nutraceutical applications over 2024–2025 is supporting stable offtake and encouraging diversification of supply beyond traditional origins. Against this backdrop, the current marginal price slippage looks more technical than structural – a function of short-term export competition, some post–year-end destocking and the recent surge in Vietnamese shipments – rather than the start of a major down-cycle. For traders, this opens a short window where near-term FOB buying can be executed at slightly better levels, particularly for organic Ceylon sticks and powder in India and for mainstream Vietnamese cassia splits and broken grades. However, given tightening global stocks, rising labor costs and climate-related yield risks in South Asia, any deeper correction appears limited without a significant demand shock.

📈 Prices & Weekly Moves

Spot FOB offers (converted to EUR, mid-March 2026)

Assumption: 1 USD = 0.92 EUR; source data given in USD/kg, converted approximately.

Origin	Location	Product	Organic	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Wk-on-Wk %	Sentiment	Last Update
India (IN)	New Delhi	Cinnamon cassia sticks	Organic	FOB	6.75	6.79	-0.6%	Soft / Slightly Bearish	2026-03-14
India (IN)	New Delhi	Cinnamon cassia powder	Organic	FOB	4.60	4.65	-1.1%	Soft / Slightly Bearish	2026-03-14
India (IN)	New Delhi	Ceylon cinnamon sticks	Organic	FOB	7.08	7.12	-0.6%	Soft but Firmly Supported	2026-03-14
India (IN)	New Delhi	Ceylon cinnamon powder	Organic	FOB	6.58	6.62	-0.6%	Soft but Firmly Supported	2026-03-14
Vietnam (VN)	Hanoi	Cassia split	Conventional	FOB	2.52	2.57	-1.9%	Soft / Competitive	2026-03-14
Vietnam (VN)	Hanoi	Cassia cigarette	Conventional	FOB	4.69	4.74	-1.1%	Soft / Competitive	2026-03-14
Vietnam (VN)	Hanoi	Cassia broken	Conventional	FOB	2.07	2.12	-2.4%	Weak / Buyer-Friendly	2026-03-14

Note: EUR prices are approximate conversions from the provided USD/kg data using 0.92 EUR/USD.

📉 Short-term price narrative

• All tracked Indian and Vietnamese FOB cinnamon offers in the IN/VN corridor show small week-on-week declines of 0.5–2.5% as of 14 March 2026.
• Vietnamese bulk cassia (split, broken) is under slightly more pressure than higher-value Indian Ceylon and organic cassia grades.
• Despite this easing, export and demand data point to an overall tight global balance, suggesting limited downside beyond current levels absent a demand shock.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Vietnam (VN)

• Vietnam posted a record cinnamon export year in 2025: ~120,295 tonnes, worth about USD 300 million, with volume up over 20% y/y and value up roughly 9%.
• India is the single largest destination, taking around 45,000 tonnes in 2025 – roughly 36–38% of total Vietnamese cinnamon exports – followed by the US and Bangladesh.
• January 2026 exports reached 8,865 tonnes, up 21% vs. January 2025 (though down modestly vs. December 2025), confirming robust early-year demand even as some buyers adjust inventories post-festive season.
• Vietnamese supply remains highly competitive in the mid-range cassia segment, serving India, China, the US, EU and Middle East in both whole and ground forms.

India (IN)

• India acts as both a major importer of Vietnamese cassia (for re-export and domestic blending) and a key exporter of higher-value Ceylon and organic-certified lines, especially into Europe and North America.
• EU data highlight India as the top cinnamon trading partner in value terms in 2025, reflecting premium prices for Indian-origin and India-handled product.
• Domestic Indian demand continues to be driven by bakery, ready-to-drink beverages and Ayurveda/nutraceutical uses; this supports a strong base load of imports, particularly of Vietnamese cassia for grinding and blending.

Global demand signals

• The EU cinnamon import value rose to one of the highest levels on record in 2025 (~EUR 68 million).
• US retail and foodservice demand for ground cinnamon has been growing steadily since 2024, with importers diversifying origins and showing greater interest in certified Ceylon and organic lines.
• Global organic spice demand (including cinnamon) exceeded EUR 22 billion in 2024, underpinning a premium segment that especially benefits Indian and Sri Lankan Ceylon cinnamon exporters.

📊 Fundamentals & Structural Drivers

Production & stocks snapshot

• Vietnam – Core cassia regions include Lao Cai, Yên Bái and Quang Nam, with extensive non-timber forest product programs that prioritize cinnamon expansion. Record exports in 2025 suggest inventories are relatively tight, even with strong January 2026 shipments.
• India – Produces and re-exports both Ceylon and cassia-style cinnamon, with South Indian states (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka) critical for Ceylon and high-quality bark. India’s own imports of cinnamon-related products remain large, indicating reliance on external supply despite domestic production.
• Sri Lanka – Remains the reference origin for authentic Ceylon cinnamon, but stricter quality control and climate-related yield constraints (including monsoon variability and higher production costs) are contributing to firm global Ceylon price benchmarks in 2026.

Cost & margin pressures

• Rising labor costs (up an estimated ~18% since 2023 in key Ceylon areas) and stricter export levies in Sri Lanka have raised the floor for Ceylon prices, indirectly supporting Indian FOB offers for organic Ceylon sticks and powder.
• Freight rates on Asia–EU and Asia–US lanes remain volatile but are currently off their 2022 peaks, helping exporters in both India and Vietnam maintain competitive CIF offers despite slightly higher local costs.
• Quality scrutiny in the EU and US (coumarin limits, authenticity tests) continues to favor origin-segregated, certified supply chains and adds a premium to verifiable Indian and Sri Lankan Ceylon, while cheap cassia remains exposed to discounting when surplus volumes appear.

🌦 Weather Outlook (IN & VN) & Yield Implications

India – South & West Coast cinnamon belts

• Key Indian cinnamon-growing and handling regions are concentrated in the humid tropics of the southwest (Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu) and parts of the east; representative districts such as Kanyakumari (Tamil Nadu) show typical tropical conditions with very warm temperatures from March to May, often exceeding 34°C.
• In mid-March 2026, conditions are seasonally hot with pre-monsoon build-up underway but no major reports of drought stress or extreme weather disruption in core spice belts.
• Implications: heat may temporarily limit field activity and harvesting windows, but soil moisture from the previous monsoon and localized irrigation generally protects trees; yield risk for 2026/27 is present but not yet critical.

Vietnam – Northern & Central cassia regions

• Core cassia-growing provinces such as Yên Bái and Lao Cai in the mountainous north, and Quang Nam/Quang Ngai/Binh Dinh in the south-central region, typically experience a cool-to-mild dry season in Q1 followed by increasing warmth and humidity.
• For mid-March 2026, available regional climate data point to seasonally warm, relatively dry but not extreme conditions, suitable for ongoing maintenance and limited harvesting activities.
• Implications: present weather does not materially constrain supply; however, any shift towards prolonged dryness into April–May could affect bark quality and thickness, impacting 2026 harvest yields.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (FOB, in EUR/kg)

Base date: 2026-03-15. Short-term outlook assumes stable FX and logistics, with only modest intra-week adjustments driven by spot inquiries and export competition.

Region	Product	Day	Indicative FOB (EUR/kg)	Bias
IN – New Delhi	Cassia sticks, organic	Day 1 (15 Mar)	6.70–6.80	Slightly Bearish
IN – New Delhi	Cassia sticks, organic	Day 2 (16 Mar)	6.68–6.80	Stable to Slightly Lower
IN – New Delhi	Cassia sticks, organic	Day 3 (17 Mar)	6.68–6.82	Sideways
IN – New Delhi	Ceylon sticks, organic	Day 1–3	7.05–7.15	Mostly Stable
VN – Hanoi	Cassia split	Day 1 (15 Mar)	2.48–2.55	Slightly Bearish
VN – Hanoi	Cassia split	Day 2–3	2.48–2.56	Sideways to Slightly Firm if new buying emerges
VN – Hanoi	Cassia cigarette	Day 1–3	4.65–4.75	Stable / Competitive
VN – Hanoi	Cassia broken	Day 1–3	2.05–2.10	Weak, Buyer-Friendly

🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term buyers (IN importers / grinders): Use the current 1–2% easing in Vietnamese cassia split and broken offers to extend nearby coverage, especially for Q2–Q3 2026, given strong export momentum and limited structural downside.
• EU buyers: Consider layering purchases of Indian organic Ceylon sticks and powder; premiums are justified by tight authentic Ceylon supply, rising costs in Sri Lanka and stronger regulatory scrutiny on coumarin and authenticity.
• Blenders & value-adders: Maintain diversified origin portfolios (VN cassia + IN/Sri Lanka Ceylon) to hedge weather and policy risk; use current softening to upgrade part of your mix to certified organic and traceable lines.
• Producers in VN: Despite record exports, avoid aggressive undercutting; maintain quality and certification investments as major buyers (India, EU, US) reward traceability and sustainable sourcing with better long-term contracts.
• Medium-term risk watch: Monitor pre-monsoon and 2026 monsoon performance in South Asia and rainfall anomalies in northern Vietnam; any material weather shock could quickly reverse the current soft tone and trigger a sharp price rebound.