Stable Vietnamese dried guava prices amid favourable 2026 weather

In mid-March 2026, Vietnam’s dried guava market is entering a period of unusual price stability just as national weather services signal generally favorable conditions for fruit production this year. Export-oriented fruit processors around Hanoi are currently quoting FOB offers for standard, non-organic white dried guava at an unchanged level, suggesting that short-term supply and demand are finely balanced. While guava is not yet among Vietnam’s headline export fruits like durian, banana or passion fruit, it benefits from the same broader tailwind of record fruit and vegetable export growth, improved processing capacity and expanding access to markets in China, the EU and other Asian destinations. At the same time, the industry is keeping a close eye on potential climate volatility after the severe floods that hit Northern Vietnam in late 2025, even though current forecasts for early 2026 point to generally supportive temperatures and rainfall patterns for orchards and drying operations. For buyers, this translates into a brief window of predictable pricing and reliable supply; for processors and traders, it raises the question of how long such stability can last if global demand for tropical dried fruit continues to rise and if any localized weather shocks re-emerge later in the year. Against this backdrop, today’s flat dried guava prices in Hanoi look less like a sign of weakness and more like a calm plateau before the next potential move.

📈 Price overview (VN, dried guava)

Spot & recent trend (FOB Hanoi, origin VN, non-organic, white dried guava)

Update date	Location	Delivery terms	Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Weekly change (EUR/kg)	Weekly change (%)	Market sentiment
2026-03-14	Hanoi, VN	FOB	€5.25	0.00	0.0%	Stable / balanced
2026-03-07	Hanoi, VN	FOB	€5.25	0.00	0.0%	Stable
2026-02-28	Hanoi, VN	FOB	€5.25	+0.05	+1.0%	Slightly firmer vs mid-Feb
2026-02-21	Hanoi, VN	FOB	€5.25	+0.05	+1.0%	Firming
2026-02-14	Hanoi, VN	FOB	€5.20	-0.03	-0.6%	Slightly weaker

• Current benchmark (Hanoi FOB, 14 March 2026): €5.25/kg.
• 1-month change: approximately +€0.05/kg (+1%) from mid-February 2026.
• Last 3 weeks: flat at €5.25/kg, indicating short-term equilibrium.

🌍 Supply & demand context (Vietnam-focused)

Vietnam fruit export backdrop

• Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports reached a record value of about USD 8.5 billion in 2025, supported by strong Chinese demand and expanding access to other markets.
• Key named export fruits include guava alongside mango, mangosteen, durian and coconut, confirming guava’s role as a recognized though secondary export crop in Vietnam’s horticultural mix.
• Policy and industry discussions in 2025 have focused on boosting competitiveness and export breakthroughs in key fruits, particularly passion fruit, banana, pineapple and coconut, but the resulting improvements in cold-chain, processing and marketing also benefit guava processors.

Dried guava positioning vs. other dried fruits

• Global dried fruit markets are dominated by categories such as raisins, apricots, dates and tropical mixes; dried guava remains niche but is increasingly present in ingredient blends and health-focused snacks.
• Indicative international product listings show low entry-level prices for dried fruit snacks (around USD 0.50 per small bag of dried guava slices at retail), implying significantly higher equivalent values on a per‑kg basis once packaging and retail margins are backed out.
• At roughly €5.25/kg FOB, Vietnamese bulk dried guava exports are priced in a competitive band for value‑added tropical fruit ingredients, leaving room for downstream margins in EU and Asian consumer markets.

📊 Fundamentals & recent developments

Weather fundamentals – Vietnam & Hanoi region

• Typical March conditions in Hanoi feature daytime highs around 23°C with mild, relatively dry spring weather, favorable for post-harvest handling and drying of fruit.
• Country-wide forecasts for 2026 from Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting point to generally favorable conditions for agricultural production, with temperatures expected to remain slightly elevated and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta projected to ease from mid-May, limiting large-scale damage to fruit crops.
• Advisories published in early 2026 emphasize proactive measures to shield fruit orchards from episodes of extreme heat or solar radiation (shade nets, adjusted irrigation), indicating heightened awareness but not yet observing widespread losses.

Legacy weather impacts

• Northern Vietnam, including provinces close to Hanoi, experienced significant flooding between late September and mid-October 2025, damaging rice, crops and a smaller area of fruit trees.
• While detailed damage data by fruit type are limited, localized orchard losses may slightly tighten supply for some fresh fruit streams in 2026, but current flat dried guava prices suggest that processing plants are not facing acute raw-material shortages at this stage.

Demand-side signals

• Vietnam’s broader fruit and vegetable export boom in 2025, including strong growth into China and the EU, indicates robust external demand for processed fruit, providing a supportive backdrop for niche items like dried guava.
• Trade analysis of Vietnam’s fruit exports highlights diversification across Asian and European markets, reducing dependency on any single destination and stabilizing processor demand for consistent dried fruit supply.

🌤️ Weather outlook for VN guava areas (next 7–10 days)

Hanoi & Northern Vietnam

• Climatological and current forecast guidance for March 2026 points to mild spring conditions in Hanoi with moderate temperatures and limited extreme rainfall risk in the near term.
• No significant cold surges or heatwaves are currently highlighted for the immediate period; this supports stable flowering, fruit set and on‑farm drying or pre‑processing operations for guava and other fruits.
• Residual soil moisture variability from the 2025 floods is likely to have normalized by now in most commercial orchards, especially where drainage improvements were implemented after the events.

National picture

• National outlooks for early 2026 expect generally favorable agricultural weather with only brief intense heat periods, and no major new alerts for widespread fruit damage.
• Some regions may still manage water carefully to guard against localized salinity or drought, but impacts on guava production around Hanoi and the northern regions appear limited in the short run.

📉 Price drivers & short-term sentiment

• Stable domestic supply near Hanoi: No current evidence of significant orchard losses or processing bottlenecks; flat prices across three consecutive weekly prints confirm a balanced local market.
• Supportive export environment: Record national fruit and vegetable export earnings in 2025 underpin a positive medium‑term demand outlook for processed products, including dried guava, even if guava is a minor share.
• Weather risk premium muted for now: With forecasts calling for generally favorable conditions and no imminent extreme events, there is little immediate weather‑driven upward pressure on dried guava prices.
• Competitive pressure from alternative dried fruits: Expanding production and export efforts in key Vietnamese fruits (durian, banana, pineapple, coconut, passion fruit) could capture more processing capacity and investment attention, limiting rapid upside for niche guava prices.

📆 3‑day regional price outlook (VN, FOB Hanoi)

Baseline as of 2026-03-14: €5.25/kg, dried guava, non-organic, white, origin VN, FOB Hanoi.

Date	Region / Port	Expected range (EUR/kg, FOB)	Directional bias	Comment
2026-03-15	Hanoi, VN	€5.20 – €5.30	Sideways	Stable supply, no fresh weather or policy shocks; buyers and sellers comfortable at current levels.
2026-03-16	Hanoi, VN	€5.20 – €5.30	Sideways to slightly firm	Stronger sentiment from broad fruit export performance may lend mild support, but no concrete trigger for a breakout.
2026-03-17	Hanoi, VN	€5.20 – €5.35	Sideways	Weather outlook remains benign; any move above €5.30 likely limited to small lots or higher‑spec product.

📌 Trading outlook – key takeaways

• Export buyers (EU/Asia): Use current stability around €5.25/kg to secure short-term coverage (2–4 weeks). Upside risk is modest but skewed slightly higher if broader dried tropical fruit demand continues to expand.
• VN processors / exporters: Maintain offers near current levels; monitor raw guava availability as the 2026 season progresses, especially if any regional weather anomalies emerge in Northern Vietnam.
• Importers holding inventory: With little evidence of imminent downside, aggressive selling below €5.20/kg appears unnecessary; focus instead on managing quality and logistics to capture full value in destination markets.
• Risk factors to watch: (1) Any renewed flooding or extreme heat episodes in Northern Vietnam; (2) sudden regulatory or SPS changes in China or EU affecting fruit imports; (3) competition for drying capacity from higher‑margin fruits.