Coffee market 2026: From record highs to fragile correction

The global coffee market in early 2026 is moving from an exceptional price boom into a fragile correction phase. Over the last two years, tight supply in Brazil and Vietnam, robust demand in Europe and the US, and weather- and policy‑driven disruptions pushed both arabica and robusta prices to historic highs. Vietnam’s exports surged in value on record unit prices, even as volumes lagged, while India’s export earnings climbed sharply despite weather‑related production stress and rising compliance costs under EU regulations. This rally narrowed traditional premiums between speciality and mainstream coffees, as benchmark futures and physical markets for regular grades spiked.

Since mid‑2025, however, the balance has begun to shift. Improved crop prospects – especially a strong 2025/26 on‑year arabica cycle in Brazil – and signs of supply recovery in Vietnam are now weighing on futures. Recent reports show ICE Coffee C (arabica) March 2026 contracts stabilising but under downtrend pressure around 2.8–3.0 USD/lb, with both arabica and robusta curves in backwardation as the market prices in higher production ahead. Physical robusta benchmarks in London have eased from the extreme peaks seen in 2025, although they remain far above pre‑rally norms. For EU buyers – including roasters in Poland – this translates into persistently high import costs in euro terms, even as the most acute upward momentum fades. A strong US dollar and still‑tight inventories are limiting the downside, and spot offers for high‑quality and speciality coffees in Poland remain elevated, with Rwandan microlots quoted near 10.8 EUR/kg FCA and fine robustas above 5.5 EUR/kg.

Against this backdrop, the coffee complex resembles the cocoa story described in the premium Polish analysis that serves as our conceptual benchmark: after a shock price episode driven by supply fears, headline prices are no longer exploding, but underlying risks – weather volatility, regulatory shifts, logistics, and speculative capital flows – keep the market far from “normal”. The apparent calm in prices can be deceptive. For roasters, traders and retailers in Central Europe, the key challenge in 2026 is no longer just surviving relentless price increases, but navigating a high‑price plateau with asymmetric risks: more room for downside in futures curves if Brazilian and Vietnamese crops deliver as expected, but ongoing upside threats from weather shocks, tighter sustainability rules (EUDR), and currency swings. In this report we detail where prices stand now, how supply and demand are evolving, what the weather outlook implies for yields, and how market participants in and around Poland can position themselves for the next three days and beyond.

📈 Prices – where coffee stands now (all values in EUR)

Recent benchmarks from ICE and physical markets, converted approximately to EUR using prevailing FX rates (1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR), illustrate that prices have eased from their 2025 extremes but remain historically high.

Exchange / Market	Product / Contract	Closing Price (approx. EUR)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
ICE NY	Arabica Coffee C Mar 2026	≈ 2.90 USD/lb ≈ 6,380 EUR/t	Softly lower vs Feb highs	Cautious / corrective
ICE Europe (London)	Robusta nearby (Mar 2026)	≈ 3,770 USD/ttd>+0.6% on 6 Mar 2026	Neutral to slightly bearish
Vietnam – Central Highlands (spot)	Physical robusta	≈ 3.95 USD/kg ≈ 3,630 EUR/t (recent low)	-7–8% w/w	Bearish / oversupplied short‑term
Poland – speciality importer (FCA)	Rwanda Gicumbi honey (Arabica)	10.8 EUR/kg	Stable at high level	Boutique / premium niche
Poland – speciality importer (FCA)	Uganda washed robusta	5.68 EUR/kg	Stable	Firm vs historical norms

Compared with 2020–2022 averages around 1–2.25 USD/lb for arabica, current levels remain structurally elevated, underscoring that the market is in a high‑price regime even after recent corrections.

🌍 Supply & Demand – tightness easing, but not resolved

Global picture

• Vietnam: Throughout 2025, Vietnam’s exports highlighted the core imbalance: volumes dipped around 9–10% year‑on‑year in early 2025, but values jumped more than 50%, with average export prices near 5,700 USD/t. By mid‑2025, total export value in H1 exceeded 5.4 bn USD on only modest volume growth, confirming that prices – not tonnage – drove the boom.
• Brazil: Brazil’s green coffee exports fell about 32% y/y in April 2025, adding to global tightness at the height of the rally. Into 2026, however, a large 2025/26 crop is now capping further upside in futures and is the main reason curves have shifted into backwardation.
• India: India’s 2025/26 production is forecast around 6 million 60‑kg bags, down due to adverse weather, but exports in value terms have surged – crossing 1.8 bn USD, up roughly 40–46% year‑on‑year – thanks to high world prices. Rising domestic consumption (notably soluble coffee) further tightens exportable surpluses.
• EU & Poland demand: EU trade data show that imports of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices grew strongly in value in early 2025, partly because of higher prices rather than much higher volumes. Poland remains an important EU coffee consumer market, and anecdotal evidence points to very high retail and out‑of‑home coffee prices, reflecting the pass‑through of expensive green coffee and higher operating costs.
• Stocks & speculative positioning: Multiple reports from 2024–2025 highlighted multi‑year‑low inventories and aggressive net‑long fund positions, particularly in robusta, which amplified the price spike. Into early 2026, open interest has expanded while prices correct, indicating more balanced partng liquidation, but stocks remain tight by historical standards.

Regional imbalances relevant for EU / Poland

• EU sourcing mix: Europe relies heavily on Brazil and Vietnam for mainstream arabica and robusta, while India, Colombia and Central America supply differentiated and speciality segments. The earlier surge in robusta prices narrowed the gap between speciality and commodity coffees, reducing premiums on Indian speciality coffees from about 25% to near 10%. For EU buyers, this temporarily made higher‑quality origins relatively more attractive.
• Shift towards value‑added products: Vietnlerated their move into processed and instant coffees, extracting higher value per ton exported. This supports a structural floor under prices for soluble and speciality segments that are relevant for Poland’s instant and capsule markets.
• Policy and regulation: The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) introduces new compliance reqentering the EU. India’s classification as “low risk” reduces the burden for exporters but still adds cost and complexity, shaping trade flows and possibly favouring compliant supply chains over cheaper but non‑compliant origins.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

USDA reports, acreage and production

• India: USDA projections of 6 million bags for 2025/26, down from prior years, reflect persistent weather stress (dry spells, high temperatures, followed by heavy rains and wind damage) in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
• Brazil & Vietnam: Market commentary since early 2026 emphasises expectations of higher global production, anchored in a strong Brazilian crop and recovering robusta output in Vietnam. Futures curves in both ICE Coffee C and ICE Robusta are in backwardation, consistent with expectations of looser supply ahead versus today.
• Stocks: Despite production recovery, global ending stocks remain low after several deficit seasons, leaving limited buffer against new weather shocks.

Macro, FX and tariffs

• Dollar strength: A firm USD through 2025 exerted some downward pressure on USD‑denominated commodity prices, but for euro‑area buyers the effect was offset by strong underlying coffee fundamentals.
• Tariffs: US tariffs targeting certain origins (e.g. higher duties on Indian instant coffee) have reshaped trade flows, pushing some Indian exporters towards alternative markets, including the EU. While this is more relevant for US trade, any redirection of flows affects availability and pricing in Europe at the margin.

🌦️ Weather outlook – key coffee origins

Following the logic of the cocoa market article – where weather and politics keep the “post‑shock” environment unstable – coffee fundamentals remain very sensitive to short‑term weather.

Brazil – Minas Gerais (arabica heartland)

• The next three days (16–18 March 2026) look seasonally warm with highs around 29–32°C and a mix of sun, clouds and scattered showers or thunderstorms.
• Impact: This pattern is broadly favourable for late development and post‑harvest activities: enough warmth for bean maturation, some moisture but no sign of widespread, damaging extremes. For markets, it supports the narrative of a good Brazilian crop, which is a bearish or at least moderating influence on prices.

Vietnam – Central Highlands (robusta core)

• Forecasts for 16–18 March show partly sunny to hazy conditions, with highs around 27–32°C and dry to only lightly cloudy weather.
• Impact: Near‑term conditions are benign for tree development and off‑season husbandry. Earlier in 2025, strong rains boosted output and weighed on domestic prices to one‑year lows; current forecasts neither constrain yields nor introduce new upside weather risks.

India – Karnataka (arabica & robusta)

• For 16–18 March, Karnataka faces very warm temperatures (highs around 34–36°C) with a mix of sun, clouds, and afternoon showers or thunderstorms.
• Impact: Short‑term, this is typical pre‑monsoon weather. However, the broader 2025/26 cycle has already suffered from erratic rainfall and wind, which damaged blossoms and cherries, partly explaining India’s reduced production forecast. The coming weeks’ rainfall distribution will remain critical; prolonged heat without consistent showers could stress trees ahead of the next flowering.

🌍 Global production & stock comparison

Country / Region	Role	Recent Production / Export Signal	Stock / Supply Implication
Brazil	Largest arabica & significant robusta producer	2025/26 crop rebounding; April 2025 exports temporarily down ~32% y/y.	Helps rebuild global stocks in 2026, moderating prices if weather cooperates.
Vietnam	Top robusta exporter	2025 H1 exports value +50–65% y/y on record prices; volumes flat‑to‑slightly down.	Low farm stocks and strong processed‑coffee exports keep global robusta balance tight.
India	Arabica & robusta producer, growing exporter	Output for 2025/26 ~6m bags, down on weather; exports up sharply in value (to ~1.8 bn USD).	Limited exportable surplus; India competes for beans between domestic and export markets.
EU (incl. Poland)	Major consuming/importing bloc	Value of coffee/tea/cocoa imports up ~51% in Q1 2025 vs 2024, largely price‑driven.	Higher cost base for roasters and retailers; supports elevated retail coffee prices.

📌 Trading outlook & strategic guidance

Key takeaways from fundamentals

• The market is transitioning from an acute shortage phase (2024–mid‑2025) with record prices and collapsing speciality premiums into a high‑price but more balanced phase, where expectations of higher production in Brazil and Vietnam cap upside, yet low stocks and policy risks prevent a deep crash.
• Backwardation in both arabica and robusta curves confirms that current nearby tightness is stronger than expectations for 2027–2028 supply.
• Weather in key origins over the next 1–2 months is the main swing factor: broadly benign in the immediate 3‑day outlook, but with lingering vulnerability in India and pockets of Brazil.

🚜 For producers (origin countries)

• Use current still‑elevated price levels to advance hedging for a portion of the 2026/27 crop, especially for robusta, while avoiding over‑committing in case of fresh weather shocks that further tighten supply.
• In India and Vietnam, prioritise investment in climate resilience and post‑harvest quality; premiums for fully trnt lots are likely to widen again as benchmark prices normalise.

🏭 For EU & Polish roasters

• Diversify origin mix to reduce dependence on any single country, balancing Brazil/Vietnam base coffees with India and East Africa for flavour and risk management.
• Given backwardation and improving crop outlooks, consider layering in purchases along the curve rathnearby coverage at still‑high prices.
• Use the temporary narrowing of speciality vs commodity price spreads to lock in higher‑quality coffees at historically attractive relative premiums, especially from India where speciality premiums dropped to around 10%.

📦 For importers & traders in Poland / EU

• Maintain flexible procurement strategies, including options and structured hedges, as volatility remains elevated even in a corrective phase.
• Monitor EUDR implementation timelines and origin‑specific risk classifications closely; leverage India’s “low‑risk” status where it reduces paperwork and potential delays.
• Exploit basis opportunities between ICE futures and physical Polish/European import prices, especially when temporary logistics issues in Brazil or Vietnam widen differentials.

🛒 For retailers & foodservice in Poland

• Expect wholesale green coffee costs to stay high in euro terms, even if slight relief appears on futures. Margin management and product mix (e.g., more robusta‑heavy blends, capsules, RTD drinks) remain critical.
• Communicate quality and sustainability value to consumers to justify high retail prices; with green coffee no longer spiking each month, focus can shift from “price shock” to “value story”.

📆 3‑day regional price forecast (EUR, focus on ICE & EU buyers)

Assuming no major weather or macro surprise between 16 and 18 March 2026, and given the current corrective but still tight market structure, we anticipate modest moves within recent trading ranges.

Exchange / Region	Product	Current Ref. Price (approx. EUR)	Forecast 3‑day Range (EUR)	Directional Bias
ICE NY (via EU import parity)	Arabica Mar–May 2026	≈ 6,300–6,400 EUR/t	6,150–6,500 EUR/t	Slightly bearish to sideways – strong Brazil crop expectations cap rallies.
ICE Europe (London)	Robusta nearby 2026	≈ 3,450–3,500 EUR/t	3,350–3,550 EUR/t	Sideways; modest downside risk if Vietnam selling increases.
EU physical – mainstream imports	Standard robusta delivered EU	≈ 3,700–3,900 EUR/t (CIF est.)	3,650–3,950 EUR/t	Stable; basis may adjust with freight and insurance costs.
Poland – speciality importer	Microlot arabica (e.g. Rwanda Gicumbi)	10.8 EUR/kg FCA	10.5–11.0 EUR/kg	Stable; price driven more by quality and scarcity than futures.
Poland – fine robusta	Uganda washed robusta	5.68 EUR/kg FCA	5.5–5.8 EUR/kg	Stable to slightly softer, following London robusta.

In summary, echoing the cocoa‑market narrative from the Polish premium analysis: after a violent up‑cycle, coffee has entered a phase where prices no longer accelerate relentlessly, yet the system remains structurally tight and fragile. For market participants in Poland and across the EU, disciplined hedging, diversified sourcing, and close monitoring of weather and regulation are essential to navigate this deceptive calm.