Hazelnut Kernels Ease from Recent Highs as Black Sea Supply Stays Tight

Hazelnut kernel prices from Türkiye and Georgia softened slightly in mid-March, easing from early-March highs but remaining historically elevated amid structurally tight Black Sea supply. Turkish FOB Istanbul offers for natural kernels slipped 2–3% week-on-week, while Georgian-origin kernels FCA Warsaw tracked a similar correction of around 0.8–1.0%. Market tone is cautiously firm, with buyers sensing short-term relief but exporters still pointing to reduced 2025/26 Turkish crop expectations and strong EU confectionery demand.

After several months of weather- and policy-driven volatility, the hazelnut complex is transitioning into a consolidation phase. Export data from Türkiye and Georgia show robust kernel shipments into the EU, underpinned by strong chocolate and spread demand despite higher retail prices. At the same time, recent frost and heat events in Türkiye’s Black Sea orchards have cut medium-term production expectations, tightening forward balance sheets and helping to floor prices. Georgia is expanding its presence as a complementary supplier, especially of kernels rather than in-shell product, cushioning but not fully offsetting Turkish shortfalls.

Weather in core hazelnut regions along the Black Sea – Giresun/Ordu in Türkiye and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in western Georgia – is currently mild and seasonally wet, supporting bud development ahead of the 2026 crop but keeping disease pressure in focus. With the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) maintaining relatively high support prices and limited old-crop stocks, exporters see little room for a deep correction in kernel values. Over the next three sessions, we expect mostly sideways to slightly softer EUR-based kernel prices, with differentials between Turkish and Georgian origins remaining narrow.

📈 Price overview – kernel values slip from peak but stay firm

Spot and recent hazelnut kernel indications (all prices in EUR/kg)

Origin	Product	Size / Type	Location / Incoterm	Latest price (2026-03-16)	Prev. price (2026-03-11)	Weekly change	2-week change*	Sentiment
TR	Hazelnut kernels	Natural 13–15mm	Istanbul, FOB	€10.88	€11.11	-2.1%	+3.7% vs 2026-03-02	Softening but firm
TR	Hazelnut kernels	Natural 11–13mm	Istanbul, FOB	€10.40	€10.52	-1.1%	+5.1% vs 2026-03-02	Softening but firm
TR	Hazelnut kernels	Roasted meal	Istanbul, FOB	€8.00	€8.15	-1.8%	-1.8% vs 2026-03-02	Soft / discounted
TR	Hazelnut kernels	Roasted diced 2–4mm	Istanbul, FOB	€9.00	€9.15	-1.6%	-1.6% vs 2026-03-02	Soft / discounted
GE	Hazelnut kernels	Natural 11–13mm	Warsaw, FCA	€11.55	€11.65	-0.9%	-0.9% vs 2026-03-02	Sideways / firm
GE	Hazelnut kernels	Natural 13–15mm	Warsaw, FCA	€11.85	€11.95	-0.8%	-0.8% vs 2026-03-02	Sideways / firm
GE	Hazelnut kernels	Kernels 15+	Warsaw, FCA	€12.05	€12.15	-0.8%	-1.6% vs 2026-02-23	Sideways / firm

*2-week change compares latest price to 2026-03-02 (or nearest available date).

🌍 Supply & trade flows – Turkey tight, Georgia growing

• Türkiye remains the dominant global hazelnut supplier, typically covering around 70% of world production and more than 80% of exports in most seasons.
• Black Sea Exporters Association data show Turkish hazelnut exports at roughly 323,000 t (kernel equivalent) in 2024, up 14% y/y, with a FOB export value of about USD 2.6 billion, confirming strong demand and high price levels.
• For 2024/25 and 2025/26, several industry and TMO updates point to reduced Turkish output versus earlier expectations due to frost and heat, with some forecasts cut toward 600,000 t or below.
• Georgia is consolidating its role as the second Black Sea kernel supplier to the EU. Export volumes increased by about 25% in the 2024/25 marketing year, with value up 45%, and the bulk of product flowing to EU destinations such as Spain, Italy, Germany, France and Poland.
• In the first half of 2025, Georgian hazelnut exports rose by almost 54% in value year-on-year to USD 52.8 million, highlighting rapid expansion from a relatively small base.

📊 Fundamentals – crop, stocks and demand

Global and regional production snapshot (kernel equivalent, ‘000 t)

Country	2023/24 est.	2024/25 est.	Trend / notes
Türkiye	~720	~610–650	Lower output following frost / heat; multiple forecasts around 609k t.
Georgia	~42–46	~46	Incremental growth in bearing area and yields; exports increasingly kernel-based.

• Stock levels in Türkiye are relatively low: industry reports suggest that by mid-2025 almost all 2022/23 TMO stocks had been sold, leaving only modest 2024/25 carryover.
• TMO’s purchase prices for in-shell hazelnuts in the 2025/26 season were raised strongly versus the prior year – to around TRY 190–200/kg (about USD 4.7–4.9/kg at the time) – underpinning farmgate values and limiting downside in kernel prices.
• EU demand from confectionery and chocolate spread manufacturers remains resilient, despite higher shelf prices. Market commentary compares the structural tightness to cocoa, with buyers prioritising coverage for Q3–Q4 2026.

🌦️ Weather & crop conditions – focus on TR & GE

Türkiye (Black Sea: Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon)

• Recent seasons have been marked by episodes of black frost in spring and heat stress in summer, which materially reduced output and drove price spikes.
• For mid-March 2026, short-range forecasts for the eastern Black Sea coast indicate mild temperatures and frequent showers – typical for the period – supporting bud development but also keeping fungal disease risk elevated (no acute frost threat on the 3-day horizon).
• With current phenological stage still early, the main weather risk window (late April–May frosts, summer heatwaves) lies ahead; this underpins a risk premium in forward pricing even as spot kernels ease slightly.

Georgia (Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti, Guria, Adjara)

• Georgia’s main hazelnut belt in western regions like Samegrelo is characterised by high annual rainfall and significant cloudiness, with average conditions around 6–7°C in winter lowlands and very wet springs.
• Short-term outlook around March 18–20, 2026 for western Georgia suggests variable conditions with passing rain and moderate temperatures, broadly seasonal and not threatening at this stage, but favouring disease pressure if orchard management is weak.
• Given the sector’s recent fight against pests such as the brown marmorated stink bug, the current moist, cool pattern keeps the focus on integrated pest management rather than immediate yield loss.

💱 Price spreads & differentials – TR vs GE

• On 2026-03-16, Turkish natural 13–15mm kernels FOB Istanbul are indicated at €10.88/kg, around €0.97 below Georgian 13–15mm kernels FCA Warsaw at €11.85/kg.
• For 11–13mm, the TR–GE spread is similar: Turkish at €10.40/kg versus Georgian at €11.55/kg, a premium of about €1.15/kg for GE kernels, reflecting logistics into central Europe, quality perception and smaller scale.
• Roasted and processed products from Türkiye (meal at €8.00/kg; diced 2–4mm at €9.00/kg) trade at a discount to natural kernels as usual, with slightly weaker week-on-week performance, indicating relatively better availability of processing grades.
• Over the last three weeks, Turkish natural kernel prices have risen 3–5% from early-March levels despite the recent 1–2% pullback, underscoring the underlying bullish structure. Georgian kernels have been more rangebound, drifting marginally lower from late-February offers.

📆 3-day regional price outlook (EUR-based)

Assuming stable EUR/TRY around recent averages and no major policy/weather shocks over the next three sessions.

Date	Region	Product	Ref. level 2026-03-16	Forecast range (next 3 days)	Bias
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-19	TR – Istanbul (FOB)	Natural kernels 13–15mm	€10.88/kg	€10.70–10.95/kg	Slightly lower / sideways
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-19	TR – Istanbul (FOB)	Natural kernels 11–13mm	€10.40/kg	€10.25–10.50/kg	Slightly lower / sideways
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-19	TR – Istanbul (FOB)	Roasted kernels (meal, diced)	€8.00–9.00/kg	€7.90–8.95/kg	Soft
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-19	GE – exports via PL (FCA Warsaw)	Natural kernels 11–13mm	€11.55/kg	€11.45–11.65/kg	Sideways
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-19	GE – exports via PL (FCA Warsaw)	Natural kernels 13–15mm	€11.85/kg	€11.75–11.95/kg	Sideways
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-19	GE – exports via PL (FCA Warsaw)	Kernels 15+	€12.05/kg	€11.95–12.10/kg	Sideways / slightly softer

📌 Trading outlook (price-driven, concise)

• Short-term buyers can look for tactical coverage on minor dips in Turkish natural kernels, but should not wait for a deep correction given low stocks and recent crop issues.
• Roasted grades from Türkiye currently offer better value relative to naturals; food manufacturers with flexible specifications may optimise costs by increasing their share of meal/diced inputs.
• Georgian-origin kernels priced around €1/kg premium vs Turkish may remain attractive for EU buyers seeking diversification and shorter logistics into central and northern Europe.
• New long positions should respect weather risk into April–May; consider staggered coverage and options/structured contracts where available to manage upside volatility.