The cashew market is currently in a strong, demand-led phase with prices holding firm across Indian mandis and key export hubs. Regular arrivals have not translated into oversupply, and higher-grade kernels are providing an additional floor for the complex. In the short term, downside risk looks limited while any festive or seasonal pull in demand could trigger a mild upside, especially in premium and retail-ready segments.
Across India, traders describe cashews as a “steady and safe” market compared to more volatile agricultural commodities. Raw cashew (RCN) in mandis is quoted around ₹11,500 per quintal, within a broader national range of ₹12,000–₹41,000 per quintal depending on quality and degree of processing. This wide band reflects the gap between basic raw nuts and top-end processed kernels. At the same time, export offers from India, Vietnam and the Netherlands in mid‑March 2026 show almost unchanged EUR prices over recent weeks, confirming the stability seen at origin. With global demand still expanding and supply generally adequate but not burdensome, the near-term picture is one of consolidation at firm levels rather than any sharp correction.
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📈 Prices & Market Structure
Spot mandi and raw nut levels in India
Raw Text reports Indian mandi cashew prices around ₹11,500 per quintal, equivalent to roughly €125–€135 per 100 kg using an indicative FX rate, with a broader range of ₹12,000–₹41,000 per quintal (about €130–€460 per 100 kg) depending on quality and processing level. The fact that prices sit comfortably within this band, with no reports of discounting or distress selling, underlines the firm tone of the physical market at origin.
Regular arrivals are being absorbed smoothly by retail, food processing and seasonal bulk demand, preventing any build-up of unsold stocks in local markets. In other words, the mandi complex is balanced: supply is normal but not excessive, while offtake is sufficiently strong to keep spot values stable. This is entirely consistent with wider industry commentary that global cashew demand is expanding in a controlled manner rather than overheating.
FOB/FCA kernel prices in EUR
Based on the provided offers (all already in EUR), kernel prices at key origins on 13 March 2026 show a flat week-on-week pattern, reinforcing the Raw Text message of a firm and steady market. Representative benchmarks include Vietnam FOB Hanoi, India FOB New Delhi, and Netherlands FCA Dordrecht for near‑term European demand.
| Origin / Location | Grade | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR/kg) | Sentiment | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam – Hanoi | WW240 | FOB | 7.75 | 0.00 | Stable / firm | 2026‑03‑13 |
| Vietnam – Hanoi | WW320 | FOB | 6.85 | 0.00 | Stable / firm | 2026‑03‑13 |
| Vietnam – Hanoi | LWP | FOB | 5.25 | 0.00 | Stable | 2026‑03‑13 |
| India – New Delhi | W320 (non‑org.) | FOB | 6.95 | 0.00 | Stable / slight firm | 2026‑03‑13 |
| India – New Delhi | W320 (organic) | FOB | 8.63 | 0.00 | Firm premium | 2026‑03‑13 |
| India – New Delhi | W240 (non‑org.) | FOB | 7.46 | 0.00 | Firm | 2026‑03‑13 |
| Netherlands – Dordrecht | WW320 (non‑org.) | FCA | 5.05 | 0.00 | Stable EU hub | 2026‑03‑13 |
| Netherlands – Dordrecht | WW320 (organic) | FCA | 6.15 | 0.00 | Firm organic premium | 2026‑03‑13 |
The absence of weekly changes in quoted EUR prices across these key grades confirms that the market is consolidating after prior firming. Global analysis from both industry and market research sources also points to a 2025–2026 environment of tight but broadly adequate supply, in which buyers and sellers both favor price stability and predictable planning over aggressive discounting.
🌍 Supply & Demand Landscape
Demand-side drivers
Raw Text highlights three core pillars of demand: Indian retail consumers, the food processing industry, and seasonal bulk buyers. Together they are absorbing regular arrivals at mandis and underpinning the perception of cashews as a relatively low‑risk holding compared with other crops. This domestic strength in a major consuming and processing country is a key reason why local prices show no sign of weakness.
Globally, demand growth remains structurally positive. Market studies indicate that the overall cashew market is projected to grow from around USD 9.9 billion in 2025 to over USD 10.5 billion in 2026, with CAGR in the mid‑single digits thereafter. Growth is driven not only by traditional snacking but also by new uses such as plant-based dairy alternatives and functional foods, which are particularly supportive for kernel grades used in roasting and value‑added processing.
Importers in the US, EU, China and the Middle East are signaling a preference for stable prices, reliable supply and higher-quality, retail-ready cashew products. This aligns closely with the Raw Text observation that premium kernel grades are trading firm and indirectly supporting the wider complex. As a result, the value chain is shifting towards quality differentiation rather than purely volume‑driven competition.
Supply and production
On the supply side, the Raw Text clearly notes that arrivals in Indian mandis are “regular” but do not constitute an oversupply. There is no evidence of stock overhang or distressed selling, which suggests that the local crop and import flows are well matched to domestic processing and consumption requirements at this stage of the season.
Internationally, Asia-Pacific (notably India and Vietnam) remains the key processing hub, while Africa—particularly Côte d’Ivoire—is consolidating its position as the leading raw cashew nut (RCN) producer. Recent assessments indicate global raw supply for the 2025–2026 crop year may exceed 5.5 million tons, with Africa and Cambodia contributing significantly to incremental volumes. Yet, raw nut tightness in some years and weather‑induced volatility have previously driven RCN prices higher, which helps explain today’s cautious but firm kernel pricing.
While some sources flag potential for a challenging 2026 season due to competitive pressure, regulatory changes and tighter margins in West Africa, these dynamics are mostly a concern for processors’ profitability rather than for immediate availability to buyers. For now, the Raw Text’s message of “no oversupply pressure” at Indian mandis and steady kernel offers in Europe and Asia remains the dominant short‑term signal.
📊 Fundamentals & Premium Segment Support
Role of premium kernels
The Raw Text emphasizes that high‑grade cashew kernels are trading firm and are crucial in supporting market sentiment. This is consistent with the current offer structure: top whole white grades such as WW240 and WW320 from Vietnam and India command a clear premium over pieces, scorched and lower-spec kernels in both FOB and FCA terms. The stability of these premiums indicates strong, persistent demand from roasters, snack brands and value‑added processors.
Global demand trends also favor this premium end of the spectrum. Importers increasingly request strict specifications on size, color, moisture content and traceability, particularly for private‑label and branded retail packs. As buyers focus on food safety, sustainability and label claims (organic, fair trade), top‑grade kernels are unlikely to see significant discounting unless a major demand shock occurs—something not visible in today’s data.
Stocks, trade flows and positioning
Recent dashboards and trade reports indicate that global import prices for cashew kernels moved higher through late 2025 and into early 2026, partly reflecting higher processing costs and tighter raw nut supply. Yet, these increases have moderated into a plateau, which again matches the Raw Text’s description of a market that is firm but not overheating.
Vietnam, the world’s largest kernel exporter, has seen some month‑to‑month volatility in export volumes over the past year, but overall 2026 prospects remain positive owing to strong Chinese, US and European demand. The removal of certain US tariffs on food items including cashews and the continued growth of Asian and Middle Eastern markets both help underpin forward buying interest, even if importers are cautious about overextending at current price levels.
Speculative positioning in cashews is less visible than in major exchange‑traded crops, but trade behavior suggests a preference for hand‑to‑mouth or moderately forward coverage rather than deep long‑term commitments. This is typical in a market perceived as fundamentally firm but overshadowed by general macro uncertainty and currency volatility in key producer countries.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
India (Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and coastal belts)
In March, most Indian cashew regions are transitioning through flowering and nut set towards early nut development. Short‑term forecasts for key coastal belts (Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala) point to seasonally warm, mostly dry conditions with only light, localized pre‑monsoon showers. Such a pattern is broadly favorable for pollination and nut fill, provided heat stress and dry spells do not become extreme.
From a market perspective, this supports the Raw Text observation of “normal arrivals”: weather is not currently threatening a major shortfall, nor is it encouraging a bumper surplus. However, any shift towards unseasonal heavy rains or prolonged heat waves would quickly become a key risk to yield and quality, particularly in orchards with limited irrigation or older tree stock.
Vietnam & Cambodia
Vietnamese cashew‑growing regions such as Binh Phuoc, Dak Lak and neighboring provinces typically experience a marked dry season around this time, which is important for flowering and nut development. Recent regional outlooks suggest generally supportive conditions but highlight increasing climate uncertainty for the upcoming harvests, particularly in Cambodia, where harsh late‑2025 weather has already raised concerns over 2026 output.
For market participants, this implies that while immediate supply is adequate, the forward balance sheet could tighten if Southeast Asian yields underperform. Combined with structurally strong demand and only moderate stock buffers, this reinforces why both the Raw Text and global analyses describe downside risks as limited and the near‑term price bias as either sideways or modestly higher.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot
| Region / Country | Role | Recent Trend (2024–2026) | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Major grower & processor | Steady production, strong domestic demand; balanced mandi arrivals | Supports firm local prices and kernel export offers |
| Vietnam | Largest kernel exporter | High processing capacity; strong export growth early 2026 after prior volatility | Anchors global kernel availability and price benchmarks |
| Côte d’Ivoire | Largest RCN producer | Output above 1.0m MT; push for more local processing | Key driver for global RCN price formation |
| Cambodia | Fast‑growing producer | Rapid area expansion; climate risks cloud 2026 outlook | Potential swing supplier for Asian processors |
| Rest of Africa | Emerging processors | Growth in local shelling; financial stress for some plants | Can tighten kernel supply if processing underperforms |
Overall, global production is increasing but so is consumption, particularly in higher‑income and health‑conscious markets. Stock data from recent international nut and dried fruit reports point to constrained carry‑in levels in some seasons due to earlier weather disruptions, which limits the market’s buffer against new shocks. In this context, the Raw Text’s emphasis on firm sentiment and the lack of visible weakness in either raw or kernel markets is fully aligned with the global fundamental picture.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations
Market outlook (next 4–6 weeks)
- Price direction: Sideways to slightly firmer. Raw Text explicitly states that downside pressure is minimal and that prices are expected to hold firm; any additional festive or seasonal demand could nudge premiums higher.
- Volatility: Low to moderate. The absence of heavy speculative participation and well‑balanced arrivals dampen short‑term price swings.
- Key risks: Weather shocks in India or Southeast Asia, policy changes affecting African RCN exports, and macro/currency moves in major producing countries.
- Key supports: Steady retail and processing demand, firm premium kernel prices, and only moderate stock cover at destination markets.
Actionable guidance for market participants
- Importers / roasters (EU, US, MENA):
- Use current stability to secure coverage for Q2–Q3 needs at today’s flat EUR levels, especially in WW240/WW320 and organic lines.
- Avoid excessive short‑cover strategies: Raw Text and fundamentals both indicate limited downside and a credible risk of premiums edging up on any demand spike.
- Indian traders and processors:
- Maintain balanced raw nut procurement given “normal” arrivals and firm demand; avoid over‑hedging against a large price decline that is not supported by current evidence.
- Capitalize on premium kernel firmness by focusing on quality, grading and traceability to capture higher realizations in export and domestic retail channels.
- African RCN exporters:
- Monitor policy and regulatory developments closely, as changes in export regimes or processing incentives can quickly alter CNF pricing and contract structures.
- Given projected RCN price ranges for 2026, discipline on quality and moisture specifications will be essential to maintain competitiveness with Asian and other African origins.
- Retailers and brand owners:
- Lock in promotional and private‑label programs early, taking advantage of today’s price stability to avoid exposure to potential Q4 tightness.
- Expand value‑added lines (flavored, roasted, plant‑based applications) that can absorb both whole and piece grades, thereby optimizing kernel mix procurement.
🔮 3‑Day Regional Price Forecast (indicative, in EUR)
Assuming no sudden weather or policy shocks, and anchored by the Raw Text’s clear statement that prices are stable with minimal downside, the following indicative 3‑day view (spot/nearby) is proposed. All moves are expected to remain within a very narrow band.
| Region / Hub | Product | Today (D) |
Day +1 | Day +2 | Expected Move | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India – Mandis (avg.) | Raw cashew, medium quality (per 100 kg, est.) | €130 | €130 | €131 | Sideways / +0–1% | Steady arrivals, strong domestic demand; mild upside if local buyers intensify procurement. |
| Vietnam – Hanoi | WW320, FOB (per kg) | €6.85 | €6.85 | €6.90 | Sideways / +0–1% | Stable export pipeline; slight firming possible on incremental Chinese and US interest. |
| India – New Delhi | W320, FOB (per kg) | €6.95 | €6.95 | €7.00 | Sideways / +0–1% | Premium kernels remain well bid, offering additional support to local raw nut prices. |
| Netherlands – Dordrecht | WW320, FCA (per kg) | €5.05 | €5.05 | €5.05 | Flat | EU hub pricing expected to stay unchanged as buyers focus on steady call‑off contracts. |
Given the Raw Text’s emphasis on a “steady and safe” market, any price changes over this very short horizon are expected to be marginal and mainly logistical or FX‑driven rather than structural. Market participants should therefore concentrate on medium‑term procurement and quality strategies rather than attempting to time very small day‑to‑day moves.
