Soybeans under pressure: demand doubts, record crush and rising stocks

Global soy complex is trading defensively as fresh doubts over additional Chinese US‑bean purchases, record US crush and swelling soy oil stocks weigh on prices. Futures along the CBOT forward curve are modestly lower nearby and clearly discounted in the outer years, while Chinese DCE soybeans are easing only slightly. Physical FOB prices in key origins remain stable to firm, but the balance of risks for futures is still skewed to the downside in the short term.

At the same time, export flows from the US remain solid in the near term, and Brazilian harvest progress is accelerating, though still lagging last year and the slowest since 2020/21. Political uncertainty around a postponed Trump–Xi summit and the focus of China’s additional US‑ag buys on products other than soybeans are capping any hope of a quick, trade‑deal‑driven rally. Weakness in vegetable oils, driven by sharply lower crude oil prices and follow‑through selling in Chicago soyoil, contrasts with strong Malaysian palm oil futures, underscoring the divergence within the broader oilseeds complex. Overall, the market is transitioning from a weather‑ and trade‑headline‑driven phase towards one dominated by large crush, high oil stocks, and expanding South American supply.

📈 Prices & Market Structure

The Raw Text shows a broadly softer tone across the soy complex on 18 March 2026, with CBOT soy oil and soybeans down modestly and soymeal slightly firmer.

CBOT soy oil futures (US‑cent/lb, 18 March 2026)

The front end of the CBOT soy oil curve is under pressure, with nearby contracts down around 0.7–1.1% on the day:

• May 2026: last 65.30 c/lb (−0.67 c, −1.02% vs prior close 65.97)
• Jul 2026: last 65.12 c/lb (−0.60 c, −0.91%)
• Aug 2026: last 64.21 c/lb (−0.54 c, −0.83%)
• Sep 2026: last 63.39 c/lb (−0.48 c, −0.75%)

Further along the curve, prices gradually decline towards the mid‑50s c/lb by late 2028/2029, with very thin volume and unchanged settlements, indicating a structurally weaker long‑term valuation but limited liquidity. The combination of lower nearby prices and a still‑discounted back end points to a market concerned about medium‑term oversupply in the oil leg.

CBOT soymeal futures (USD/short ton, 18 March 2026)

In stark contrast to soy oil, CBOT soymeal is firmer across the board, supported by record crush and robust domestic feed demand:

• May 2026: last 313.60 USD/t (+1.90, +0.61%)
• Jul 2026: last 313.30 USD/t (+1.60, +0.51%)
• Aug 2026: last 311.30 USD/t (+1.30, +0.42%)
• Sep 2026: last 309.50 USD/t (+1.30, +0.42%)

Gains are modest but broad‑based through late 2026 and early 2027, with even more deferred months holding steady to slightly higher. This price behavior confirms that crushers are capturing value primarily from the meal component, while soy oil is dragging on the overall crush margin.

CBOT soybeans futures (US‑cent/bu, 18 March 2026)

CBOT soybean futures are mostly slightly lower nearby, stabilizing in the forward months:

• May 2026: last 1,153.75 c/bu (−3.25 c, −0.28%)
• Jul 2026: last 1,168.00 c/bu (−3.25 c, −0.28%)
• Aug 2026: last 1,159.75 c/bu (−2.75 c, −0.24%)
• Sep 2026: last 1,131.75 c/bu (+0.25 c, +0.02%)
• Nov 2026: last 1,132.75 c/bu (+1.50 c, +0.13%)

From 2027 onwards, the curve trades slightly below nearby values, with Nov 2027 around 1,102.25 c/bu and Nov 2028 about 1,096.75 c/bu. This modestly downward‑sloping curve reflects expectations of comfortable future supplies, anchored by large South American crops and steady US output.

DCE Chinese soybeans No.1 (CNY/t, 17 March 2026)

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, domestic Chinese soybean futures are fractionally lower, mirroring the mild pressure seen in Chicago:

• May 2026: close 4,914 CNY/t (−20, −0.41%)
• Jul 2026: close 4,908 CNY/t (−12, −0.24%)
• Sep 2026: close 4,895 CNY/t (−7, −0.14%)
• Nov 2026: close 4,873 CNY/t (unchanged)

The relatively shallow corrections and stable deferred months suggest that domestic Chinese fundamentals are not tightening sharply, despite political noise around US‑China trade and uncertainty over additional US‑bean imports.

📊 Key exchange prices converted to EUR

Using an approximate FX rate of 1 USD = 0.91 EUR and 1 CNY = 0.13 EUR, we derive indicative EUR prices for reference:

Contract	Original price	Approx. EUR price	Weekly change	Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans May 26	1,153.75 c/bu	≈ 10.50 EUR/bu	Slightly lower d/d	Bearish/defensive
CBOT Soymeal May 26	313.60 USD/t	≈ 285 EUR/t	+0.61% d/d	Mildly bullish
CBOT Soyoil May 26	65.30 c/lb	≈ 0.54 EUR/kg	−1.02% d/d	Bearish
DCE Soybeans May 26	4,914 CNY/t	≈ 639 EUR/t	−0.41% d/d	Slightly bearish

The mixed picture across the soy complex—weak oil, firmer meal, slightly softer beans—indicates a market where crush incentives remain present but are increasingly skewed towards meal, while oil faces headwinds from energy markets and high inventories.

🌍 FOB physical prices in EUR (current offers)

Current Product Prices in EUR provide additional context on the physical side. Values are in EUR/kg, FOB origin:

Origin	Specification	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. price	Update date	Short‑term trend
Ukraine	Soybeans	Odesa, FOB	0.34	0.34	2026‑03‑14	Sideways, stable
India	Soybeans, sortex clean	New Delhi, FOB	0.97	0.97	2026‑03‑14	Sideways after prior rise
USA	Soybeans No. 2	Washington D.C., FOB	0.57	0.55	2026‑03‑13	Firming
China	Soybeans yellow	Beijing, FOB	0.68	0.66	2026‑03‑12	Moderate uptrend
China	Soybeans yellow, organic	Beijing, FOB	0.78	0.76	2026‑03‑12	Moderate uptrend

FOB prices show a gentle firming trend in US, Indian and Chinese origins since late February, while Ukrainian prices have stabilized after minor fluctuations. This suggests that, despite weaker futures, nearby physical demand and logistics costs keep floor support in spot markets, particularly for premium qualities.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Trade policy & Chinese demand

The Raw Text underscores a key risk factor: US market fears that the anticipated additional Chinese soybean imports may not materialize. While weekend consultations in Paris between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese officials signaled openness for more US agricultural imports, China indicated that these would focus on products other than soybeans.

This directly challenges expectations of an extra 8 million tonnes of US soybean purchases floated by President Trump in February. The subsequent statement from Trump that the summit with Xi, initially planned for late March, could be delayed adds another layer of uncertainty. Markets are quickly discounting any immediate upside from trade diplomacy and instead price in the possibility of a more cautious Chinese import program.

US export performance

Despite political noise, USDA export control data for the week to 12 March show strong realized flows: 966,082 t of soybean loadings, up 9% week‑on‑week and 45% year‑on‑year. China remains the dominant outlet with 545,858 t, followed by Egypt (224,944 t) and Mexico (203,801 t).

Cumulatively, 2025/26 US soybean exports since 1 September reach 28.06 mln t, but this is still 28.3% below the same period a year earlier. The apparent paradox—solid weekly shipments yet lower seasonal totals—highlights how the global import burden has shifted further towards Brazil, while US exporters capture tactical demand windows but struggle to match last season’s volumes.

Crush demand & product mix

NOPA data from Monday reveal a record February crush of 208.785 mln bushels among member plants, 11% higher than a year ago and only 1.5% below January. On a daily basis, 7.46 mln bushels processed mark an all‑time high, confirming that domestic processing demand in the US is extremely robust.

However, the product balance is increasingly skewed. Soy oil stocks reached 2.08 bln pounds, up 38% year‑on‑year and 9% month‑on‑month, underscoring a significant oil surplus. This helps explain why soy oil futures are distinctly weaker than soymeal and why the crush is driven mainly by meal margins. The risk is that if oil stocks keep rising, crushers may eventually need to slow runs or accept further oil price discounts.

South American supply

On the supply side, Brazil is advancing its 2025/26 harvest, with 61% of the soybean crop collected by last Thursday, according to AgRural. This is 10 percentage points more than the prior week but still below the 70% reported a year earlier, and it is the slowest pace since 2020/21.

A slower harvest can temporarily tighten local availability and support basis levels, but the overall volume still points to a large crop entering world markets. As harvesting accelerates into late March and April, the global balance sheet will feel additional weight from Brazilian exports, intensifying competition for US origin beans, especially in price‑sensitive destinations.

📊 Fundamentals & Cross‑Commodity Context

Energy markets & vegetable oils

The Raw Text clearly highlights the drag from energy markets: markedly lower crude oil prices weighed on the oilseeds complex on Monday. Safe passage of several oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz raised hopes that this chokepoint might soon be fully reopened, easing earlier fears of energy supply disruption.

This development is bearish for biofuel feedstocks, including soy oil. Although Indian efforts to move additional ships through the Strait and back‑channel talks with Iran remain ongoing, the immediate market signal is that the worst‑case scenario for crude supply disruptions is being priced out. Consequently, the link between energy prices and vegetable oil demand (via biodiesel) is currently working against soy oil valuations.

Rapeseed and palm oil signals

European rapeseed prices at Euronext posted double‑digit losses on Monday, with the May front month closing below 500 EUR/t for the first time in two weeks. Cash rapeseed markets mirrored the decline, even if price levels remain described as attractive for marketing both old and new crop.

By contrast, Malaysian palm oil futures have risen for four consecutive sessions, with the benchmark contract hitting a more‑than‑one‑year high. Strong gains in Chinese palm oil futures have supported crude palm oil prices, though trade on Tuesday opened lower as participants reacted to Monday’s sharp losses in Chicago soyoil. This divergence—strong palm vs weak soyoil—can reshape the relative pricing of oils in destination markets and may gradually lift demand for discounted soyoil if the spread widens sufficiently.

Global production and stocks snapshot (qualitative)

• United States: Record crush and high soy oil stocks indicate abundant bean availability for processing. Export totals lag last year, reflecting increased competition and possibly cautious Chinese buying.
• Brazil: Harvest progress is slower than last year but accelerating, pointing to a large crop moving onto the export market over the coming weeks.
• China: Domestic futures are soft but not collapsing, and policy signals suggest incremental US ag purchases with a tilt away from soybeans. High global supplies elsewhere reduce urgency for front‑loaded imports.
• EU & Black Sea: Rapeseed and sunflower oil remain key competitors to soyoil. Ukraine’s stable FOB soybean price around 0.34 EUR/kg indicates exportable supplies at competitive levels into nearby markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

For the very short‑term forecast, weather is used to complement, not override, the Raw Text fundamentals.

• Brazil (Central & Southern soybean belt): Seasonal showers and thunderstorms continue across Mato Grosso, Goiás and Paraná, with localized heavy rainfall but enough breaks to allow ongoing harvest. Short‑term delays in some areas are possible, yet no widespread crop damage is expected; overall supply prospects remain large.
• Argentina: Mixed conditions with intermittent rains over the Pampas and drier interludes. After earlier dryness concerns, recent precipitation has been broadly beneficial, stabilizing yield prospects for late‑planted beans.
• US Midwest (early outlook for 2026/27 crop): Late‑March conditions are still dominated by cool temperatures and variable moisture. No acute planting threat is visible yet, but any shift to excessive wetness in April would become a key watchpoint for the new‑crop market.

Given that the Raw Text does not flag any major weather‑driven threat, the current forecast suggests that supply‑side risks are moderate and not sufficient, on their own, to offset the bearish influence of record crush and high product stocks.

📌 Trading Outlook & Strategy

Short‑term (next 1–4 weeks)

• Futures bias: With doubts over additional Chinese US‑bean purchases, a delayed Trump–Xi summit, and heavy soy oil stocks, the near‑term bias for CBOT soybeans and soyoil remains mildly bearish to sideways.
• Meal vs oil spreads: The relative strength of soymeal vs soyoil and record crush volumes favor long meal/short oil strategies for traders comfortable with spread risk.
• Physical procurement: End‑users in Europe and MENA may use current futures weakness and still‑attractive Euronext rapeseed prices to extend coverage for Q2–Q3, especially for meal needs, while staggering oil coverage due to high stocks.
• Risk management: Importers exposed to US origin should hedge the risk of renewed trade tensions or weather issues via modest long call structures on deferred CBOT beans rather than outright futures length.

Medium‑term (Q2–Q3 2026)

• Bumper South American supply: As Brazil’s harvest advances beyond 61% and logistics normalize, global availability is set to increase, pressuring flat prices unless offset by a surprise demand surge.
• US export window: The US will likely cede additional market share to Brazil in key Asian destinations, while maintaining niche and timing‑driven sales to Mexico, Egypt and others. This limits upside for US basis levels.
• Energy & biofuels linkage: If crude oil remains subdued on easing Strait‑of‑Hormuz worries, biofuel demand pull for vegoils will soften, capping any strong rally in soyoil.
• China policy risk: Any announcement of broader US ag purchases by China that unexpectedly includes soybeans would be a bullish shock, but current signals from the Raw Text imply this is not the base case.

Longer‑term (late 2026–2027)

• The gently declining forward curves in beans and oil suggest the market anticipates structurally comfortable supplies.
• Investment flows may favor relative value plays (meal vs oil, US vs Brazil vs DCE) over outright directional bets, absent a major weather or policy shock.
• Producers should be prepared to lock in profitable forward margins when brief rallies occur, particularly if local basis spikes on logistics disruptions.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Forecast (in EUR)

Based primarily on the current futures structure and Raw Text fundamentals, with short‑term adjustments only, the following indicative forecasts are presented for the next three sessions:

Market	Instrument	Current approx. price (EUR)	T+1 day	T+2 days	T+3 days	Bias
CBOT	Soybeans May 26 (per bu)	≈ 10.50	10.35–10.55	10.30–10.60	10.25–10.65	Slightly bearish/sideways
CBOT	Soyoil May 26 (per kg)	≈ 0.54	0.53–0.54	0.52–0.54	0.52–0.55	Bearish to neutral
CBOT	Soymeal May 26 (per t)	≈ 285	282–288	280–290	278–292	Neutral to mildly bullish
DCE	Soybeans May 26 (per t)	≈ 639	632–645	630–648	628–650	Slightly bearish
FOB US	Soybeans No. 2 (per kg)	0.57	0.56–0.58	0.56–0.58	0.55–0.58	Stable to slightly weaker
FOB UA	Soybeans (per kg)	0.34	0.33–0.35	0.33–0.35	0.33–0.35	Broadly stable

These ranges are indicative and assume no major surprise in trade‑policy headlines or weather developments. Given the dominance of fundamental signals from the Raw Text—record crush, high oil stocks, solid exports but lagging cumulative totals and large South American supply—any near‑term rallies are likely to be sold into unless accompanied by a clear shift in Chinese buying behavior or an unexpected weather shock.