Soybeans stabilise as Brazil exports peak and biodiesel hopes support oilshare

Soybean markets are stabilising after Monday’s sharp sell-off, with Chicago futures and global cash values moving sideways to slightly firmer. Oilshare is underpinned by higher energy prices and potential US biodiesel support, while Brazilian exports enter their seasonal peak and EU import demand remains softer than last year.

After the recent drop, CBOT soybeans, meal and oil are showing a cautious rebound, helped by slightly improved risk sentiment after the White House kept the door open for a new Trump–Xi meeting in May. Rising crude oil prices and restricted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz lend support to vegetable oils, even as Malaysian palm oil prices correct after a four‑day rally. On the demand side, Brazil’s record export campaign meets a somewhat weaker EU import pull, pointing to ample global availability but with pockets of strength in soy oil linked to biodiesel policy expectations.

📈 Prices & Spreads

On 19 March 2026, front‑month CBOT soybeans (May 26) traded around 1,161 US‑ct/bu, marginally lower on the day (‑0.06%), with new‑crop November 26 at about 1,143.5 ct/bu (+0.18%). The forward curve remains relatively flat, with only a modest discount into late 2027–29, signalling comfortable but not burdensome supply expectations. Soymeal is firmer across the strip, with May 26 up 1.18% to USD 325.5/short ton, while soy oil eases slightly, with May 26 at 65.38 US‑ct/lb (‑0.23%), though the longer‑dated structure shows a gentle downward slope.

In cash markets (FOB, converted to EUR), indicative offers for physical soybeans are broadly stable: Chinese yellow soybeans are around EUR 0.63–0.73/kg (conventional vs. organic), US No. 2 soybeans near EUR 0.52/kg, Indian sortex‑clean around EUR 0.84–0.89/kg, and Ukrainian origin near EUR 0.29/kg. This confirms a well‑supplied global market with competitive Black Sea and US offers, while premium origins such as India and organic China maintain a clear price spread.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Sentiment improved slightly after US President Donald Trump decided not to cancel, but to postpone, the planned late‑March meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping to May. The move reduced immediate trade‑war anxiety and allowed soybeans to recover part of Monday’s losses. Nevertheless, trade policy remains a major uncertainty for the market, especially for US export prospects in the second half of the year.

Brazil’s export campaign is now in full swing, reaching its seasonal peak. Industry group ANEC estimates March soybean exports at 16.32 million tonnes, slightly below last week’s forecast (16.47 million tonnes) but above March 2025 (15.73 million tonnes). With January shipments already at 8.87 million tonnes, Brazil is set to dominate global supply in Q1–Q2, exerting pressure on basis levels and limiting upside in flat prices despite the recent futures rebound.

On the demand side, EU imports of soybeans since the start of the 2025/26 season (July–15 March) total 8.74 million tonnes, 11% below the previous year. EU rapeseed imports are down even more sharply (‑33% to 3.19 million tonnes), while soymeal imports eased 3% to 12.95 million tonnes and palm oil arrivals are unchanged at 2.07 million tonnes. This combination points to slightly weaker protein demand and some substitution within the oilseed complex, but not to an outright shortage.

📊 Fundamentals & Related Markets

Vegetable oils are drawing support from energy markets. Crude oil prices are firmer as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, keeping fears of supply disruptions alive. This underpins soy oil and rapeseed oil via their biodiesel link, even though soy oil futures eased modestly on the day and Malaysian palm oil futures corrected by more than 1% after a four‑session rally.

Palm oil sentiment is clouded by uncertainty over Indonesia’s export tax regime and the possible increase of the biodiesel blending mandate from B45 to B50. Traders are also concerned that sharply higher freight costs could dampen export demand, a factor that has already triggered profit‑taking in Kuala Lumpur. Weakness in palm oil and a softer start in crude oil today are short‑term headwinds for vegoils, but the broader energy‑linked support for soy oil remains intact as long as Hormuz disruptions persist.

In the US, soy producers are closely watching upcoming biodiesel blending rules. Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to a White House event on 27 March, which the market reads as a signal that soy oil use for biodiesel could be expanded. Any confirmation of higher mandates would be bullish for soy oil relative to meal and beans, supporting oilshare and potentially tightening the balance for oil despite abundant global bean supplies.

📆 Short-Term Outlook

With Brazil’s exports peaking and EU demand slightly softer, the near‑term fundamental backdrop for soybeans remains broadly neutral to mildly bearish. However, policy‑driven factors – US‑China trade relations, US biodiesel blending rules, and Indonesia’s palm biodiesel mandate – introduce meaningful upside risk for soy oil and, by extension, for the complex. Volatility is likely to stay elevated around key political dates and announcements.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Crushers & Feed Buyers: Use current price stability and Brazilian supply peak to extend soybean and soymeal coverage into Q2–Q3 on price dips, while leaving some open volume to benefit from potential further basis softening.
• Oil Buyers & Biodiesel Producers: Consider moderate forward hedging in soy oil given the asymmetric upside risk from US biodiesel policy changes and ongoing logistical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Speculative Traders: Favour relative value strategies (long soy oil vs. short meal or beans) rather than outright directional bets, as headline‑driven moves around trade talks and biodiesel regulations can quickly reverse flat‑price trends.
• EU Importers: With EU soybean and soymeal imports slightly below last year, monitor competition from Brazilian and US origins closely; current FOB spreads offer opportunities to diversify origin at favourable terms.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication (Directional, in EUR)

Market	Product	Direction (3 days)	Comment
CBOT (EUR‑equiv.)	Soybeans May 26	Sideways to slightly firm	Technical rebound after sell‑off; capped by Brazilian exports
CBOT (EUR‑equiv.)	Soyoil May 26	Slightly firm	Supported by energy prices and biodiesel optimism, despite palm correction
FOB cash (global)	Physical soybeans	Stable	Ample supply and competitive offers from Brazil, US and Black Sea