Garlic Trade Rebalances: Azerbaijan’s Export Push Meets Import Reliance

Azerbaijan’s garlic sector enters 2025 with surging exports, led by Russia and a cautious return to Kazakhstan, while the country remains structurally dependent on imports from China and Iran. For Indian market participants, steady EUR-denominated offers and firm domestic mandi levels point to a broadly supported price environment in the near term.

Garlic trade flows are undergoing a gradual rebalancing. Azerbaijan has sharply increased exports to its core CIS partner while trimming exposure to Saudi Arabia and tentatively re‑entering Kazakhstan. At the same time, its large import needs keep it closely tied to price and supply developments in China and Iran, both of which remain central to global garlic fundamentals. In India, wholesale prices are elevated but stabilising compared to the sharp spikes of 2023–24, with organic powder export offers from New Delhi holding steady in EUR terms and providing a clearer benchmark for forward planning.

📈 Prices & Benchmarks

Export and import data point to a firm but not overheated garlic market. Azerbaijan exported 242.7 tonnes of garlic in 2025, worth about USD 346,200, up 40% in volume and 29% in value versus 2024, signalling better realisations but not runaway prices. On the Indian side, indicative wholesale prices across major mandis currently average around ₹11,200 per quintal (≈€1.25/kg at ₹90/EUR), suggesting a moderately firm domestic base.

Current commercial offers show flat EUR pricing in recent weeks. Organic garlic powder ex-New Delhi (FOB) is indicated around €6.60/kg, while fresh Egyptian garlic FOB Alexandria trades near €1.05/kg, with no change over the last month. These stable external references complement the view of an equilibrated, rather than highly volatile, regional market.

Product	Origin	Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Trend vs 4 weeks
Garlic powder, organic	India (New Delhi)	FOB	€6.60	Stable
Garlic, fresh	Egypt (Alexandria)	FOB	€1.05	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Shifts

Azerbaijan’s export profile has become more Russia-centric. Shipments to Russia reached 242.2 tonnes in 2025, up 57% year-on-year, with export value climbing 58% to USD 339,100. This concentration underlines Russia’s role as the price‑setting outlet for Azerbaijani garlic, even as other destinations lose weight.

Saudi Arabia’s importance has diminished sharply: volumes dropped to just 0.3 tonnes (−85%), with value down 82% to USD 6,900. In contrast, the reopening of the Kazakh market, albeit modest at 0.15 tonnes and roughly USD 200 in value, is strategically notable after almost six years of absence, indicating renewed regional trade channels that could scale if price and logistics remain attractive.

Despite this export surge, Azerbaijan remains a net garlic importer. In 2024, it imported 978 tonnes, more than four times export volume, with China supplying 44.4% and Iran 37%. This duality—rising outbound flows alongside heavy import reliance—means domestic availability and prices are still strongly influenced by Chinese and Iranian production, costs and export policies, as well as by broader global stock and inventory developments.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

Globally, China continues to dominate garlic supply with roughly 70% of world output, and recent reports point to a ‘high‑first‑then‑low’ price pattern in 2025 as inventories, costs and processed‑product exports reshaped the market. Such dynamics feed directly into Azerbaijan’s import costs and, indirectly, into CIS market benchmarks that Indian exporters monitor for competitiveness.

Indian domestic fundamentals remain relatively tight but more orderly than during the sharp price spikes of late 2023 and 2024, when wholesale prices in key markets like Nashik and Azadpur had briefly traded above ₹160–350/kg. Current mandi averages near ₹110–120/kg show that prices are still historically high but off crisis peaks, reducing extreme volatility risk while keeping grower incentives broadly supportive for the next planting cycle.

🌦 Weather & Regional Outlook (India‑focused)

For key North and Central Indian garlic regions (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and parts of Uttar Pradesh), mid‑March 2026 weather is seasonally warm with mostly dry conditions and only isolated pre‑monsoon showers expected in the coming week. This pattern is neutral to slightly positive for curing and post‑harvest handling of late‑season bulbs, with limited immediate risk to quality or storability.

Looking ahead into April, the main risk factor is early heat buildup, which could accelerate weight loss in stored garlic if on‑farm and wholesale storage conditions are sub‑optimal. However, no major disruptive weather systems are currently flagged for the next 1–2 weeks in the principal producing belts, suggesting that supply‑side shocks from weather are unlikely in the very short term.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Indian buyers (food industry, retail chains): With organic powder FOB New Delhi steady around €6.60/kg and domestic mandi prices elevated but stable, consider staggered procurement over the next 4–6 weeks rather than front‑loading, using any short‑term dip from rabi arrivals as an opportunity to lock medium‑term coverage.
• Exporters from India: CIS markets, particularly Russia, are absorbing increasing volumes from Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan itself remains a substantial net importer, especially from China and Iran. Position Indian offers as a complementary, higher‑quality or specialty origin, targeting niches or windows when Chinese FOB values firm.
• Importers in South Asia & Middle East: Given Azerbaijan’s greater focus on Russia and weaker flows to Saudi Arabia, regional buyers should maintain alternative origin options (China, India, Egypt) and use stable Egyptian fresh garlic around €1.05/kg as a reference for bulk procurement, adjusting for freight and quality.
• Risk management: Monitor Chinese policy, cost trends and any logistical disruption that could tighten export availability. For Indian users, consider limited forward or inventory hedging if domestic mandi prices begin to revisit the upper band seen in 2023–24.

📉 3‑Day Price Direction (EUR‑based)

• India – organic garlic powder, FOB New Delhi: Around €6.60/kg; expected sideways over the next 3 days, with narrow intra‑week moves as export demand and INR/EUR stay broadly stable.
• Egypt – fresh garlic, FOB Alexandria: Around €1.05/kg; seen stable to slightly firm in the coming 3 days on consistent Mediterranean and Middle Eastern demand.
• India – domestic fresh garlic (mandi, ex‑farm, EUR equivalent): Roughly €1.20–1.40/kg across major centres; likely to trade steady near current levels, with local variations driven more by quality and arrivals than by macro shocks.