Ukrainian Pea Market Under Pressure as Farmers Accelerate Sales

Ukrainian pea prices remain under downward pressure as farmers, facing a gradual decline since January 2026, accelerate stock sales, while export demand is muted by high freight rates and Ramadan-related slowdown in key MENA destinations.

Ukrainian farmers have moved into active spring field preparations and are increasingly willing to liquidate remaining green and yellow pea stocks quickly in response to steadily weakening prices. Export channels are currently subdued: sharply higher freight costs and the seasonal demand lull during Ramadan in Arabic countries are limiting fresh export business and shifting market power to local traders. These local exporters are taking advantage of the situation to accumulate peas at relatively low price levels, setting the tone for the near-term market.

📈 Prices & Market Level

Yellow peas in Ukraine are indicated around 260–270 USD/t CPT port area, reflecting the continuous softening observed since January. Converted to euros (at approx. 1.00 EUR = 1.10 USD), this corresponds to roughly 236–245 EUR/t CPT. At the same time, spot FCA Odesa indications for Ukrainian peas on 20 March 2026 show around 0.27 EUR/kg (≈270 EUR/t) for yellow peas and 0.35 EUR/kg (≈350 EUR/t) for green peas, confirming a flat but low price environment versus previous weeks.

Product	Origin	Location / Term	Price (EUR/kg)	Trend vs early March
Peas dried, green, 98%	UA	Odesa, FCA	0.35	Stable, after earlier softening
Peas dried, yellow, 98%	UA	Odesa, FCA	0.27	Stable at low level

🌍 Supply & Demand Situation

On the supply side, the key feature is farmers’ strong willingness to sell. As spring fieldwork begins, liquidity needs and storage considerations encourage rapid stock clearance, especially after several months of gradual price erosion for both green and yellow peas. This creates a steady flow of offers into the local market and caps any short-term price recovery.

Demand from international buyers is currently muted. The sharp increase in freight rates makes Ukrainian origin less competitive on distant markets, while Ramadan in Arabic countries temporarily slows import activity from a traditionally important demand region. Local exporters are using this vacuum to build inventories at favorable levels, suggesting that physical supply is being transferred from farms to export hands rather than leaving the country in volume immediately.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is characterized by comfortable near-term availability and constrained export outlets, a combination that weighs on farmgate pricing. The stable nominal FCA Odesa quotations since late February mask the underlying bearish tone stemming from long farmer positions and limited spot demand. Any improvement in freight economics or a post-Ramadan demand rebound could tighten this balance later, but this is not yet visible in current flows.

Weather in Odesa and wider southern Ukraine is generally favorable for ongoing spring fieldwork, with the coming three days forecast to bring mild temperatures around 10–14°C, some wind, and increasing cloudiness, plus light showers in places. These conditions support timely sowing and crop development, implying that supply prospects for the new season remain stable to slightly positive, adding another soft factor for prices in the medium term.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction (UA, 3–5 days): Sideways to slightly softer, as farmer selling continues and export demand remains seasonally and logistically constrained.
• For farmers: Consider gradual sales rather than holding large residual stocks in expectation of a quick rebound, especially for yellow peas, where indications are already at the lower end of recent ranges.
• For exporters/processors: Current conditions are favorable for stock accumulation at relatively low prices, but freight and demand risks argue for cautious forward coverage rather than overextending positions.
• For buyers in nearby regions (EU, regional importers): Ukrainian origin offers currently look competitive in EUR terms; short- to medium-term coverage could be attractive before any post-Ramadan demand normalization and possible freight easing.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Outlook (Indicative, EUR)

• Ukraine, FCA Odesa – Yellow peas 98%: ~0.27 EUR/kg; expected range 0.26–0.28 EUR/kg over the next 3 days, with downside risk if selling pressure intensifies.
• Ukraine, FCA Odesa – Green peas 98%: ~0.35 EUR/kg; likely to trade in a narrow 0.34–0.36 EUR/kg band, supported by relatively firmer niche demand.
• Export parity, CPT port – Yellow peas: ~236–245 EUR/t equivalent; short-term moves mainly driven by freight costs and Ramadan-related demand rather than local farmgate shifts.