Raisin Prices Edge Softer as Chinese Supply Stays Ample, Freight Risks Build

Raisin prices are trading slightly softer in Europe despite growing freight risk, as ample Chinese and Turkish supply keeps a lid on upside. Near-term, modest easing is likely to outweigh logistics-driven cost pressure, with only limited scope for a sharp rally.

European buyers face a market where CN and TR sultanas remain competitively priced, underpinned by strong Chinese production and healthy Turkish export availability. At the same time, freight and energy costs are rising again after the Strait of Hormuz crisis, threatening to erode some of the recent price declines. Demand from bakery and snack sectors is steady but not explosive, so buyers retain some bargaining power in spot and nearby positions.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Recent trades and offers for standard-quality raisins in Europe indicate a slightly softer bias, with Chinese sultanas (type 9 RTU) FCA main EU hubs still broadly in the low EUR 2.2/kg range, and Turkish sultanas type 9 FOB/CIF around the mid‑EUR 2.3–2.4/kg area based on current quotes converted to EUR. The CN–TR spread for standard grades remains narrow, reinforcing China’s role as a price anchor.

Origin / Grade	Location / Terms	Latest Indication (EUR/kg)	Weekly Trend
China sultanas #9 RTU	EU (FCA, main hubs)	≈ 2.20–2.25	Slightly softer to flat
Turkey sultanas #9 std/RTU	TR/EU (FOB/CIF)	≈ 2.30–2.45	Mostly stable
India golden AA	IN FOB	≈ 2.25–2.35	Sideways
Chile flame jumbo	EU (FCA)	≈ 2.45–2.55	Flat

Despite a surge in global freight costs after the Iran–Hormuz escalation, Asia–Europe container rates have so far risen only moderately and from relatively low levels; recent weekly updates point to mid‑March GRIs and surcharges being announced but not fully reflected in spot benchmarks yet. This time lag is helping keep delivered raisin prices in Europe broadly stable for late‑March/early‑April shipments, though forward buyers should expect cost pass‑through if elevated bunker and insurance costs persist.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

China remains a central bearish factor. Turpan in Xinjiang accounts for over 80% of Chinese raisin output and underpins China’s position as the world’s third‑largest raisin producer and top producer of green raisins. Industry balance sheets for 2025/26 already point to a strong recovery in Chinese raisin production and a sharp increase in carry‑out stocks versus the previous season, implying comfortable export availability into 2026.

On the demand side, Europe’s bakery and snack sectors show steady offtake but not the kind of surge that would quickly absorb large Chinese and Turkish supplies. Earlier industry data highlighted robust structural use of raisins in bakery and retail mixes, but current macro uncertainty and high energy prices in Europe are keeping buyers conservative on forward coverage. Spot and nearby demand is focused on filling short‑term gaps rather than building large inventories.

🌦 Weather & Growing Conditions (China Focus)

For the key Chinese raisin region of Turpan (Xinjiang), late‑March weather is seasonally cool and mostly dry, with no major anomalies reported over the last few days. Public forecasts for northwest China point to near‑normal temperatures and limited precipitation through the end of March, consistent with normal early vegetative development in vineyards. (These conditions are inferred from regional meteorological updates for Xinjiang; no recent extreme events affecting grape areas have been flagged in the last three days.)

Given that the 2026/27 crop is only at an early stage, weather is currently a neutral driver for prices. The sizeable 2025/26 Chinese crop and stocks are far more important for near‑term market direction than incremental changes in this month’s field conditions.

🚢 Logistics, Costs & Macro Backdrop

The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have lifted energy prices sharply and triggered new shipping disruptions, with major lines temporarily suspending transits through affected Gulf corridors. However, most Asia–Europe raisin flows route via alternative passages (e.g. via the Red Sea/Suez or around the Cape), so direct volume losses are limited; the main impact is through higher bunker costs and risk premia.

Container market commentary in mid‑March notes that while congestion at Far East trans‑shipment hubs and emergency surcharges are emerging across several lanes, Asia–Europe spot rates had, until last week, only inched higher and remained well below the peaks seen during the earlier Red Sea crisis. For raisin shippers from China and Turkey, this means moderate upward pressure on freight into Europe in the coming weeks rather than an immediate, dramatic jump.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Stocks: Chinese beginning stocks for 2025/26 are projected significantly higher, leaving the global balance sheet well supplied even in the face of weather‑related issues elsewhere.
• Competing origins: Turkey, South Africa, Chile and India continue to offer competitive grades, with no major short‑term crop shocks reported in the last three days that would materially alter export availability.
• Costs: Rising oil, gas and freight costs are a clear risk but are being partially offset by still‑ample vessel capacity on Asia–Europe routes and a broadly balanced container market.
• Speculative activity: Raisins are a physical, OTC‑driven market with limited speculative futures participation, so price moves are more tightly linked to origin offers, freight and FX than to financial flows.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indications

Trading Recommendations (Short Term)

• European buyers: Use the current stable‑to‑soft CN and TR offers to extend coverage modestly into late Q2, especially for standard CN sultanas around EUR 2.2–2.25/kg FCA and TR sultanas around EUR 2.35–2.45/kg FOB/CIF, before higher freight and energy costs are fully priced in.
• Importers in CN region: Given ample domestic supply and neutral weather, prioritize local and nearby CN origin raisins; delay large imports where possible until the impact of new surcharges on Asia–Europe lanes is clearer.
• Origin sellers (CN/TR): Consider locking in forward sales on any near‑term price upticks driven by freight headlines; underlying fundamentals remain heavy, and rallies may be shallow without a demand shock.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (in EUR)

• EU (FCA main hubs, CN sultanas type 9 RTU): 3‑day bias: slightly softer to flat. Expected range ≈ EUR 2.18–2.25/kg, with sellers willing to negotiate on volume deals despite rising freight chatter.
• Turkey (FOB Malatya, sultanas type 9): 3‑day bias: flat. Expected range ≈ EUR 2.30–2.45/kg; exporters are watching freight and FX but see no immediate reason to re‑price sharply.
• India (FOB, golden AA): 3‑day bias: flat. Expected range ≈ EUR 2.25–2.35/kg, tracking CN/TR offers and container cost developments.

Overall, the next three days are likely to see a calm, buyer‑friendly raisin market, with ample Chinese supply and only gradual freight cost pass‑through capping any upside.