Tight Pistachio Balance and Steady Brazil Nut Prices Shape Nut Market

Robust demand is pulling U.S. pistachios through the supply chain faster than in recent years, pushing marketable stocks to multi‑year February lows and creating a firmer price environment, even in an on‑year crop. At the same time, Brazil nut offers in Europe are holding steady, suggesting that tightening is currently most acute in pistachios rather than across the broader nut complex.

The nut market is entering spring with a clear split between structurally strong pistachio demand and comparatively calmer pricing in other tree nuts. U.S. pistachio shipments are running well above historical norms, while marketable inventory has dropped sharply versus the last two seasons, signaling a market where supply is still ample on paper but increasingly scarce in the spot channel. In contrast, Brazil nut prices in the Netherlands have been flat for weeks, underlining how product‑specific fundamentals dominate. For Indian buyers and European importers alike, this implies rising competition for pistachios and a need for more proactive coverage of forward needs.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

The U.S. pistachio market is entering the second half of the 2025/26 crop year with a notably firm tone. Strong shipment performance and the lowest February marketable inventory in years are underpinning prices and narrowing room for discounts, especially for spot volumes and premium kernel grades.

For Brazil nuts, current FCA Dordrecht offers for medium, non‑organic product from the Netherlands are holding at about EUR 6.50/kg, unchanged over the past month. Stable quotes point to a balanced near‑term situation where buyers can still secure volume without facing the same degree of tightening seen in pistachios.

Product	Location / Term	Price (EUR/kg)	Trend (last 4 weeks)
Brazil nuts, medium	Dordrecht (NL), FCA	6.50	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics (Focus: Pistachios)

In the first six months of the 2025/26 U.S. pistachio crop year (September–February), kernel shipments reached 63.5 million lbs (gross kernel weight), equivalent to 141.2 million lbs in‑shell. This is 12.6% higher than the same period last year and 20.7% above the equivalent stage in 2024, confirming a robust, broad‑based demand environment.

Against a five‑year February average of 47.7 million lbs, current year‑to‑date shipments are running 33.1% higher, signaling not just seasonal strength but a structural step‑up in consumption. Kernels account for 18.9% of total crop year‑to‑date shipments on an in‑shell‑equivalent basis, placing the season between recent on‑ and off‑year patterns and indicating that the market is absorbing the large on‑year crop with notable efficiency.

📊 Inventory, Availability & Historical Context

Adjusted kernel inventory at end‑February 2026 stood at 108.3 million lbs gross kernel weight (240.6 million lbs in‑shell). While slightly above February 2024’s 103.3 million lbs, it is 8.8% lower than February 2025, showing that strong shipments are already eroding stocks even mid‑season.

More importantly for price formation, marketable kernel inventory — stocks classified as available for potential sale — was only 44.8 million lbs (99.5 million lbs in‑shell) at end‑February. This represents a steep 28.2% drop from February 2025 and an 11.7% decline versus February 2024, marking the lowest February marketable position in recent years.

Industry feedback suggests that even these marketable stocks overstate what is truly accessible on the open market, as a significant share is already tied up in forward contracts. For buyers, this translates into much tighter genuine spot availability than headline inventory numbers imply, especially for specific sizes, qualities and kernel specifications.

Looking back, the 2023/24 off‑year closed with total kernel shipments of 119.7 million lbs and ending inventory of 48.5 million lbs. The following 2024/25 season saw shipments rise to 123.0 million lbs and ending inventory fall to just 25.3 million lbs, a historically tight finish. Despite the current 2025/26 season being an on‑year, the combination of elevated shipments and low February marketable stocks suggests the year could again close with relatively lean inventories.

🌦️ Weather & Regional Demand Signals

For the California‑centric pistachio supply base, late‑March weather is seasonally mild with no acute short‑term threats, keeping focus squarely on demand and pipeline coverage rather than immediate production risk. In India, demand for imported nuts — including pistachios — remains structurally strong, supported by rising consumer incomes and sustained use in confectionery and festival‑driven consumption.

While no major weather shocks are currently disrupting the tree‑nut complex, structurally higher demand in key import markets like India, the EU and East Asia continues to underpin usage growth. This reinforces the importance of watching shipment and contract data for early signs of tightening, particularly in segments where U.S. supply is dominant.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

With shipments tracking well above historical norms and marketable inventory at a February low, the balance of risk for U.S. pistachios into late spring and summer tilts toward further tightening if demand remains resilient. An on‑year crop has provided raw material, but the speed at which it is being absorbed suggests limited downside for prices unless shipments slow materially.

• Buyers (importers, roasters, FMCG): Consider accelerating coverage for Q3–Q4 2026 pistachio needs, especially for kernels and premium grades, as spot availability is likely to diminish and differentials could widen.
• Indian buyers: Use current currency conditions and still‑reasonable freight to lock in part of festival‑season pistachio requirements early, reducing exposure to potential late‑season tightness and basis risk.
• Growers and handlers: The combination of strong shipments and thin marketable stocks supports a firm pricing stance; prioritize execution of higher‑value contracts and avoid over‑committing volumes before the next ACP data release.
• Brazil nut buyers: With FCA Dordrecht prices stable around EUR 6.50/kg, maintain staggered purchases rather than front‑loading, but monitor for any spillover tightening if broader nut markets firm further.

📉 3‑Day Directional Price View (Key Hubs)

• U.S. pistachios, export parity (EUR terms): Slightly firmer bias over the next 3 days as strong shipment data continues to support replacement values and narrows discounting room.
• EU Brazil nuts, FCA NL: Sideways near EUR 6.50/kg; no immediate catalysts for sharp moves expected in the very short term.
• India import parity (mixed nuts basket): Mildly upward tendency driven by strong global pistachio fundamentals and steady underlying demand, though short‑term moves should stay contained.