Ajwain (carom seeds) markets across India, particularly in the Saurashtra region, are witnessing notable shifts as arrivals from major centers decrease, leading to pronounced supply-side tightening. Farmers in key producing villages, including those supplying Jamnagar, have reported reduced daily arrivals. This contraction in supply flows is evident at major market yards such as Jamnagar, Gondal, and Rajkot, with total arrivals trending lower compared to previous sessions.
Despite this, Ajwain prices have maintained relative stability over the past week. Market participants and local analysts point out that this price resilience stems from a balanced demand which is able to absorb the limited available supply without inducing sharp volatility. Industry sentiment suggests that unless there is an abrupt surge in arrivals or a significant spike in buying activity, Ajwain prices are likely to remain within the current narrow trading band in the short term. This phase of steady pricing, against the backdrop of declining inflows, underscores the importance of closely monitoring crop patterns and weather conditions in key growing belts, especially as new market trends and climatic influences continue to reshape short-term outlooks.
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📈 Prices at a Glance
| Market | Quality | Price (USD/quintal) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamnagar APMC | Medium | $38.40 – $39.60 | Unchanged | Stable |
| Jamnagar APMC | Best | $39.60 – $40.80 | Unchanged | Stable |
| Gondal APMC | Superior | $40.20 – $41.40 | Unchanged | Stable |
| Rajkot APMC | General | $38.40 – $40.20 | Unchanged | Stable |
| Type | Grade | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed | A | New Delhi (FOB) | €3.48 | €3.48 | 2025-09-12 |
| Powder | B | New Delhi (FOB) | €3.80 | €3.80 | 2025-09-12 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Arrivals have contracted in major markets (especially Jamnagar: 500–600 bags, Gondal: 1,000 bags).
- Short-term supply remains tight due to lower shipment from nearby villages, attributed to seasonal and possible late-harvest factors.
- Current demand is matching available supply, ensuring price stability in spot markets.
- No evidence yet of speculative buying or strategic stockpiling from bulk processors.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- High-quality Ajwain continues to fetch a notable premium in market yards.
- Absence of large carry-in stocks from previous season amplifies sensitivity to supply changes.
- Export demand remains consistent, supported by sustained interest from Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian buyers.
- Speculative positions largely remain flat, as market participants await clearer signals on arrival trends and next season’s sowing intentions.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Recent weather updates for Saurashtra and Rajasthan suggest below-average rainfall, raising concerns of moisture stress for late-maturing Ajwain crops.
- Outlook for the next week indicates predominantly dry conditions, which may further delay arrivals but minimize risk of fungal disease outbreaks.
- Careful monitoring required: If dry weather persists, yield gains will be limited but existing stocks may suffice for current demand levels.
🌏 Global Production and Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023 Production Estimate (MT) | Export Share (%) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~20,000 | 90+ | Dominant global producer and exporter |
| Iran | ~1,800 | 5 | Occasional regional supplier |
| Egypt, Others | <1,200 | Minimal | Domestic use/local trade |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Spot buyers: Continue regular procurement as prices are steady amid tight arrivals.
- 📌 Exporters: Lock in contracts for higher grades; current prices offer margin security if supply tightens further.
- 📌 Processors: Monitor local APMC arrival patterns; bulk buying advised only on dips below $39/quintal for best grades.
- 📌 Investors: Low volatility expected in the near term—consider accumulation strategies only if weather shifts threaten forward supply.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Range (USD/quintal) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Jamnagar | $38.40 – $40.80 | Steady |
| Gondal | $40.00 – $41.50 | Steady |
| Rajkot | $38.50 – $40.30 | Steady |
| New Delhi (FOB, EUR/kg) | €3.48 – €3.80 | Stable |