The Almond Board of California has released the Position Report with +245.2 million pounds shipped compared to last year’s 249.9 million pounds for a decrease of 1.9% percent change. The Industry was able to ship out basically the same amount as last year in spite of the global shipping issues!!! Spain led the charge with over 31 million pounds shipped in April. India was a close second with over 28 million pounds shipped out, and UAE with 16.8 million pounds. These three countries were all up substantially for the month while the Domestic market was down over 10 percent for April.
Million Pounds Percent Change
DOMESTIC 62.43 -10.9
EXPORT 182.81 +1.7%
COUNTRY: Million Lbs vs LAST Year Million Lbs
INDIA 28.09 21.69
S KOREA 3.0 9.3
CHINA 6.8 9.9
SPAIN 31.4 18.8
GERMANY 8.9 17.2
U A E 16.8 10.9
TURKEY 10.4 5.2
CROP YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: Crop year to date we have shipped +1.928 billion pounds compared to last year’s 2.228 billion pounds for a decrease of 13.48 percent.
CROP RECEIPTS: +2.904 billion pounds compared to 3.098 billion pounds last year for a decrease of 6.24 percent change.
MARKET: The markets in California are slowly starting to react to the recent new crop estimate that was announced at 2.9 billion pounds. Stds-5% dip down to $1.75 FAS and since rebounded back to $1.80 per lbs FAS. Butte Padre SSR sizes have all increased in pricing to above 1.90 FAS. NP X mid sizes like 27/30 have stayed relatively flat as there is a lack of inventory on them. Large size NPX and small size NPX has decreased slightly. NP inshell and Indy Inshell remains flat with medium demand in part due to the higher prices levels, inshell trading at a substantial premium to kernels, and the excessive heat India has endured during the past two weeks with temperatures above 110 degrees Fahrenheit/ 43 Celsius degrees. New sales in March were at +168 million pounds compared to last year at 162 million pounds. The California Industry is now sold at 80% percent for the carry-in and current crop. The potential carry out for California for the 2021 crop will be approximately 900 million pounds.
DROUGHT: Much of California is in a severe drought. Our two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Orville, are both at far below normal levels. Lake Shasta is only 39% filled and Lake Oroville is 52% filled. These two reservoirs provide water for major Cities and Agricultural Production to feed the World and they are both critically low. Most major cities are cutting the amount of water usage allowed in the cities. Many Agricultural areas within the State will have a zero water allocation this year. Below is a link to an article on the snow pack/water content in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. At this time we are less than 40% of the normal water content in the snow pack.
Wild Fluctuations in Sierra Snow (nasa.gov)
SHIPPING: The global shipping industry continues to be hammered with rolls and increasing costs. With the increased Covid cases in China and the lock downs continuing, Shanghai and other major Chinese ports are severely backed up with hundred of vessels waiting at Each port to be received, unloaded, and reloaded. These severe delays in China will be felt world-wide in the coming 1-3 months around the world. One positive out of this, is that the shipping lines are loading vessels in California to ship to Europe and non-China routes which has allowed us to increase our recent shipments.
CURRENCY: The US Dollar has strengthened against most major currencies. Inflation is rising rapidly around the world! In certain markets, traditional buyers of NP X are now switching to Ind X to obtain high quality almonds at a reduced levels compared to NPX due to local inflation concerns.
1 Dollar= 77.30 Indian Rupee
1 Dollar = 15.31 Turkish Lira
1 Dollar= 6.72 China Yuan
1 Euro= 1.05 Dollars
NEW CROP: The new crop continues to develop. The Independence Crop looks outstanding in the Central and Southern Valley! The Central and Southern parts of the valley will have a good Nonpareil and Monterey Crop. The North which was severely impacted by the freeze, will have less quantity but very large sized kernels. The Subjective Crop Estimate will be announced tomorrow. Many growers and buyers have been waiting to see what this number will be and if it will have any impact on the current and future almond pricing.
OUTLOOK: Most packers are full for the May production schedules and many are full for the FH of June now as well. NPX mid sizes and Inshell are in tighter supplies and have stable pricing. Cal/Carmel pollinators are in good supplies.
Dale Darling
Summit Premium Tree Nuts
8680 Greenback Lane
Suite #250
Orangevale CA 95662