Almond Shipments Surge but Geopolitical, Logistics & Weather Risks Loom

The almond market has been abuzz with activity, momentum, and a fair share of turbulence heading into March 2026. February deliveries smashed expectations, notching a 12.2% year-over-year increase, even as the sector wrestled with shipping delays, global conflicts, and intense weather swings. Major shipment destinations like India, Spain, Turkey, and the UAE signaled robust demand, with India especially standing out for its premium appetite.

But this strength masks underlying volatility: logistical chaos, war in the Middle East disrupting vital routes, and a wild Californian bloom season that leaves the upcoming 2026 crop shrouded in uncertainty. For traders and industry professionals, OPEC-driven freight cost spikes, Australia’s potential weather damage, and a market still absorbing a sizeable carry-in all build an atmosphere of both opportunity and caution. In an environment defined by vigorous global demand but unpredictable supply and shipping factors, almond buyers and sellers need deft navigation, timely decision-making, and keen market intelligence. Below is your data-rich, actionable analysis—including the latest price tables—to help you chart the right course.

📈 Prices: Current Almond Market Snapshot

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Almonds kernels	carmel, ssr, 18/20	US	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.81	6.76	+0.05	Firm, upward rebound in March
Almonds kernels	carmel, ssr 20/22	US	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.78	6.73	+0.05	Firm, upward rebound in March
Almonds kernels (organic)	natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr	US	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.42	9.38	+0.04	Premium market, steady demand

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Global Shipments (Feb): 241 million pounds (+12.2% YoY)
• Export Surge: 196.11 million lbs (+23.5%), led by major markets
• Domestic Decline: 45.03 million lbs (-19.9%)
• India—Key Market: 41.3 mil lbs (vs. 25.6 mil), imports robust, premium over origin, US set for larger market share due to limited Irani/Afghani supply
• Spain, Turkey, UAE: All showing YoY increases, solid import flows
• Year-to-date Shipments: 1,517 million lbs (-4.44%) versus prior year; slightly slower season cumulative
• Active Market: February new sales 246.22 million lbs, heavy forward buying for March/April slots

🚢 Shipping, Logistics & Geopolitical Risks

• Middle East conflict: Port closures/disruptions impeding March shipments; loads offloaded or blocked from destination port entry
• Freight Rates: Spiking oil prices (from $60 to $93.80/barrel, +50%) driving shipping costs up by 1-2 cents/lb globally
• Equipment Shortages: Container & vessel scarcity contributed to end-of-February shipment delays

📊 Fundamentals & Crop Conditions

• Crop Receipts (2025): 2.679 billion lbs (flat to last year’s 2.681bn)
• Sold Position: Industry at 67.9% sold (new crop + carry-in, based on 2.7bn crop)
• Bloom Report (2026 Crop):
  • Nonpareil: Uncertain—quick bloom, heavy rains, unknown nut set
  • Independence: Outstanding bloom, 10+ days—strong crop expected
  • Monterey/Butte Padre: Healthy, good bloom, solid crop outlook
  • Full crop potential clarity expected April–May, possible range: 2.6–2.8bn lbs
  • Zero bee activity during crucial rainy days could impact pollination in select varieties
• Australia Weather Event: Heavy rainfall during harvest in Riverland/Sunraysia, extent of damage unknown—potential for reduced competition from Australian origin

☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• California: Bloom is completed; shifting to warmer temps. Past cold, windy, and wet bloom weather has caused uncertainty in Nonpareil yield. Outlook better for Independence and Monterey. Next 30 days are critical—continued observations needed for April/early May crop set assessment.
• Australia: Additional risk from orchard flooding may impact southern hemisphere export flows over H1 2026.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• California (US): Dominant exporter, stable output but much of the market now pre-sold
• India: Imports at record highs, US exports to India growing strongly
• Spain/Turkey/UAE: All importing more US almonds, reflecting global shift amid tight supplies
• Australia: Watch for weather-related supply tightening

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term: Price rebound after early March dip; demand strong, but shipping risks persist
• Watch: Geopolitical developments in Middle East and global freight costs closely—could tighten availability and raise delivered prices further
• Buyers: Secure Q2/Q3 coverage early as logistics constraints may limit prompt supply
• Sellers: Heavy forward sales suggest careful management of remaining stocks to capture premiums amid ongoing disruptions
• Monitor: April bloom reports for US 2026 crop—potential yield surprises may prompt sharp moves

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg)

Product	Origin	Current	D+1	D+2	D+3	Trend
Almonds kernels, carmel 18/20	US	6.81	6.82	6.84	6.87	Modestly Up
Almonds kernels, carmel 20/22	US	6.78	6.79	6.81	6.83	Modestly Up
Almonds kernels (organic), nat. 27/30	US	9.42	9.43	9.44	9.46	Steady/Premium