Almonds Market: Slower Crop, Mixed Shipments & Stable Prices Amid Weather Risks

The global almond market is currently navigating a phase of tighter supply, steady pricing, and shifting demand dynamics. The recent October Position Report from the Almond Board highlights a notable drop in new crop receipts, with October’s figure of 705.82 million lbs. down nearly 13% from last year. Shipments are also showing regional divides: overall volumes have dipped and domestic demand remains soft, while European buyers and Japan maintain robust activity. Exports are up thanks to early positioning by Europe, but other key importers, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, are lagging and expected to increase their purchases in the months ahead. Pricing remains supported by the expectation of a smaller 2025 crop and ongoing hand-to-mouth buying patterns by both sellers and buyers, who are wary of weather-related uncertainty delaying crop size confirmation. Sellers have attempted to push prices higher, but appetite at elevated levels appears limited until hard data on the final crop size is available. As California’s almond orchards age and new bearing acres decline, the market faces further potential yield constraints in the coming years. Weather will be a pivotal factor through the winter, with continued rain adding to buy-side caution. While the upside may be capped short-term, limited risk of oversupply and strong export interest should continue to provide a floor to almond prices, keeping volatility muted unless weather or acreage data throw up fresh surprises.

📈 Latest Almond Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type/Quality	Price (€ / kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Almonds kernels	US	Washington D.C., FAS	carmel, ssr, 18/20	6.82	0	Neutral
Almonds kernels	US	Washington D.C., FAS	carmel, ssr 20/22	6.78	0	Neutral
Almonds kernels (Organic)	US	Washington D.C., FOB	natural, nonpareil ssr 27/30	9.42	0	Stable/Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Crop Receipts (Oct): 705.82 million lbs. (-12.9% y/y)
• 2025 Expected Crop: 2.55–2.7 bln lbs. (below last year’s 2.71 bln)
• Domestic Shipments (Oct): 48.22 mln lbs. (-28.5% y/y)
• Export Shipments (Oct): 201.01 mln lbs. (+5.2% y/y)
• Key markets: Europe strong early buying; Asia/MENA lagging but expected to catch up
• Sales (Oct): 261.82 mln lbs. (-1.1% y/y), above expectations
• Commitments (YTD): 561.53 mln lbs. (-16.6% y/y)
• Uncommitted Inventory: 982.23 mln lbs. (-1.5% y/y)

📊 Fundamentals

• Bullish:
  • Lower crop receipts and projections for 2025
  • High early buying from Europe
  • Declining new orchard acreage and aging trees = structural yield pressure
  • Export supply expected tight; buyers likely to return for spot volumes
• Bearish:
  • Domestic demand soft, unlikely to rebound in the short term
  • Ongoing rain delays final crop data and stirs buyer caution
  • Prices pulled back to pre-report levels, market hesitant to move higher without clarity

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• California: Above-average rainfall continues, delaying harvest data. Some localized flooding reported, but overall conditions remain promising for orchard health; risk of yield loss if waterlogging persists over winter.
• Spain: Recent reports show close-to-normal precipitation, supporting a stable outlook for Spanish almond output.
• Crop Impact: Continued monitoring needed as further heavy rains could impact both quality and harvest timing, though currently not extreme enough for major downward revisions to forecasts.

🌐 Global Snapshot: Production & Stocks

Country	2025F Crop (mln lbs.)	Stock Trend
USA (CA)	2,550–2,700	Tightening
Spain	~350	Stable
Australia	~150	Steady
India	N/A	Large Import Needs
China	N/A	Soft Import Pace YTD

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Buyers: Consider incremental purchases—spot supply may tighten further if weather affects CA harvest. Don’t wait for major price drops, but avoid large commitments until crop size is confirmed.
• ⚠️ Sellers: Opportunities to lock in sales at current pricing, but avoid aggressive price increases until more data is available.
• Expect price stability with an upward bias if confirmation of a short US crop arrives in early 2025.
• Hand-to-mouth trading likely to continue; volatility to stay subdued unless weather risks materialize.
• Monitor shipment recovery in lagging Asian markets as a demand trigger.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

Location	Product/Quality	Price Range (€ / kg)	Trend
US (FAS Washington D.C.)	Carmel 18/20, SSR	6.80 – 6.85	Stable
US (FAS Washington D.C.)	Carmel 20/22, SSR	6.75 – 6.80	Stable
US (FOB Washington D.C.)	Organic Nonpareil 27/30	9.40 – 9.45	Stable