The range of estimates for future corn areas in Ukraine is very wide due to uncertainty regarding future export prospects. There are estimates on the market of 3.3 million hectares and below. This is almost two times less than before the full-scale Russian invasion.
Of course, after the end of the war, Ukraine may return to previous levels. But according to UkrAgroConsult analytics, the transition period may take 5 years and more to reach the corn level of almost 6 million hectares. Now it is impossible to reach such numbers. There are still more than 5 million tons of corn in Ukrainian warehouses. And export prospects for them are very vague. Because of this, farmers abandon corn and sow oil crops instead. They are easier to export than large quantities of corn.
And as for oil crops, they are easier to export, the price is good compared to grain crops. Ukraine still has processing enterprises that can master these volumes. Mostly, sunflower and rapeseeds are in demand in European markets. Bulgaria has bogged down all its processing capacities on Ukrainian sunflower.
To remind, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2023, the area of corn sowing will be 3.6 million hectares. As of May 1st, 260,000 ha were sown.