The global banana market, driven notably by India’s Cavendish exports, has demonstrated remarkable resilience in face of recent weather challenges. Despite heavy rains impacting Maharashtra’s production belts and causing logistical snarls, exporters like Sattvaa Owaiss report steady demand from overseas buyers, especially in the Middle East and across Asia. Though farm-level availability has fluctuated, improvements in post-harvest handling and quality controls have ensured that Indian exporters continue to meet international standards, even as production regions face adversity.
Prices have seen some volatility; last month, logistics slowdowns caused by monsoon rains temporarily pushed up farm-level prices by nearly 10%, but normalization in supply has since stabilized export pricing. Notably, current prices remain elevated from last year due to lingering high freight and labor costs. Consistent demand from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, combined with sustained interest from Bangladesh and Iran, has underpinned export flows. Looking forward, the coming Ganesh festival season in India is poised to buoy domestic demand, while market players are eyeing new export opportunities in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. With post-monsoon logistics improving and quality remaining high, the banana market’s outlook is robust, characterized by cautious optimism for price stability and volume growth in the near term.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Banana dried chips
Chips, whole
FOB 3.53 €/kg
(from VN)
Banana dried chips
Chips, whole
FCA 2.79 €/kg
(from NL)
Banana dried chips
Chips, broken
FCA 1.77 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices & Market Snapshot
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR) | Previous Price (EUR) | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banana dried chips | Chips, whole | VN | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 3.53 | 3.53 | 2025-08-21 |
| Banana dried chips | Chips, whole (organic) | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 2.79 | 2.79 | 2025-08-21 |
| Banana dried chips | Chips, broken | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 1.77 | 1.77 | 2025-08-21 |
| Banana dried chips | Chips, whole | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2025-08-21 |
- Market sentiment: Steady, with upward pressure on farm prices; export price gains sustained YoY.
- Farm-level (Maharashtra, India): Price eased from recent high of USD 7 to USD 6.4 per 13.5 kg box (conversion: ca. EUR 5.94, at 1 USD = 0.93 EUR).
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Heavy monsoon rains reduced immediate output in Maharashtra but improved overall fruit quality and post-harvest recovery.
- Export stability: Middle East, Bangladesh, and Iran maintain high, regular demand.
- Freight and input costs remain above 2023 levels, but strong buyer commitment persists due to consistent quality.
- Domestic uptick expected: Ganesh festival in late August is poised to push Indian demand and pricing higher for the season.
- Normalizing logistics as rainfall subsides should support stable exports through Q3.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Context
| Country/Region | Export Volume (2023, ‘000 MT) | 2024 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| India | 1,300 | Steady, improving quality |
| Philippines | 2,550 | Stable, risk of weather disruptions |
| Ecuador | 6,500 | Steady, modest growth forecast |
| EU imports | 6,700 | Robust, dominated by Latin America & Africa |
- India’s premium G9 Cavendish banana meets rising international retail demand (larger hand size, improved shelf life).
- New export markets (Eastern Europe, Central Asia) are being actively explored.
- Bangladesh, Iran, and Afghanistan remain price-sensitive but reliable buyers of Indian bananas.
⛅ Weather & Regional Crop Outlook
- Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh (India): Excess rainfall in July-Aug delayed harvest, but did not significantly impact overall seasonal output. Damp weather improved fruit size and quality.
- Current forecast: Scattered showers in next 3 days, reducing overall transport delays. Favorable for new flush; risks of disease remain low due to improved drainage.
- Philippines: Tropical cyclones may affect logistics intermittently, but major plantations report normal operations as of August 2025.
🔗 Production & Global Trade Flows
- Ecuador remains world’s leading exporter, but India’s role in Asian and Middle Eastern trade is growing.
- Comparison to last report: Price optimism holds, but rainfall-induced volatility slightly higher; new market development and quality upgrades are accelerating.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Exporters: Lock in contracts early for Middle Eastern buyers to hedge against possible price fluctuations.
- Buyers: Secure supply for September–October amid rising festival season demand and recovering logistics.
- Monitor rainfall and logistics updates for Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh during the transition to drier conditions.
- Explore diversification in premium varieties targeting Europe and Central Asia as demand picks up.
- Maintain quality controls and invest in post-harvest handling to preserve export standards.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Current Price (Box, USD/EUR) | Forecast Range Next 3 Days |
|---|---|---|
| Maharashtra, India | USD 6.4 / EUR 5.94 | USD 6.3–6.5 / EUR 5.86–6.05 |
| Middle East (imports) | USD 8.2 / EUR 7.63 | USD 8.0–8.4 / EUR 7.44–7.81 |
| EU (dried chips, PH whole) | EUR 2.79 | EUR 2.7–2.8 |
Short-term price stability is expected as harvest and logistics recover. Monitor weather and freight developments for further indications.
