Barley Market Hits Multi-Year Lows: Surplus Supply and Weak Exports Drive Prices Down

The barley market is under significant pressure as prices reach multi-year lows, particularly on major European exchanges. Exceptional global harvests in 2025 have swelled supplies in key exporting nations, amplifying the downward momentum in barley pricing. On the Euronext, the March 2026 barley future closed at just 185.75 EUR/t—its lowest since August 2020, captured amid a bearish climate fueled by record volumes and an appreciating euro. While this supply glut weighs notably on sentiment, import demand from core markets remains sluggish, constrained by increased competition from wheat and persistent logistical bottlenecks. In Germany, the spot market for feed barley and wheat has softened further, mirroring continental surpluses and growing French exports, with additional supply expected in the months ahead. Meanwhile, export figures for EU barley have climbed steadily, reflecting robust outbound shipments from Germany, albeit at cut-price levels compared to prior years. With winter barley fields in favorable condition following a mild, moist autumn, a promising start to next season’s crop could further undercut prices unless global demand rebounds. The near-term outlook remains shaped by these oversupply dynamics, currency movements, and any shifts in major importer behavior.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Product	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext Mar 2026	185.75 EUR/t	-2.50 EUR (approx.)	Bearish
SFE Futtergerste Jan 2026	300.00 AUD/t	Unchanged	Stable
SFE Futtergerste Mar 2026	305.00 AUD/t	Unchanged	Stable
Ukraine Feed Barley (Odesa, FCA)	0.25 EUR/kg	Unchanged	Stable
Ukraine Feed Barley (Kyiv, FCA)	0.23 EUR/kg	Unchanged	Stable
Ukraine Barley seeds (Odesa, FOB)	0.17 EUR/kg	Unchanged	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 🌱 Record Global Harvests: The 2025 barley crop has expanded globally, particularly in Europe and the Black Sea region, driving ample physical supply.
• 🪙 Currency Impacts: The euro has strengthened recently, making euro-denominated barley less competitive on world markets and exacerbating the local price decline.
• 📉 Sluggish Export Demand: Although EU barley exports (5.01 million t) are up vs. last year, much of this is driven by aggressive price discounting. France and Germany remain major players, but excess supplies within the EU persist.
• 🚢 Intra-EU Shipments: France’s wheat and barley supplies, boosted by better-than-expected yields, are increasingly channeled toward EU partners, displacing barley in domestic feed rations elsewhere.
• 📊 Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains short on European feed grains, reflecting bearish sentiment tied to expected surpluses and unsupportive macro factors.

📊 Fundamentals

• EU Barley Stocks: Inventory carryover likely to rise, given the lag in exports and increased intra-bloc trade; forecast at or above 2024/25 levels despite higher offtake.
• France & Germany: France’s winter barley planting in excellent state (97% rated good/excellent). Germany’s barley exports stand at 694,000 t so far, with notable volumes of malt barley processed as well.
• Ukraine: Remains a low-cost supplier, but port disruptions and Black Sea logistics risks continue to cap export ambitions.

Country	Production 2025/26 (mt)	Stocks (mt)	Exports 2025/26 (mt)
France	~12.3	High	~3.5
Germany	~9.8	Large	~0.7
Ukraine	~8.0	Normal	~3.5
Australia	~12.0	Normal	~6.5

☀️ Weather Outlook

• 🚜 Western Europe: After a warm, wet autumn, soils remain moist and ideal for winter barley establishment. France’s excellent crop conditions may persist if late-December stays mild and rainfall is regular.
• 🌬️ Black Sea: Mild conditions in southern Ukraine favor winter barley, but above-normal precipitation is needed to replenish subsoil moisture before spring growth resumes.
• 🔥 Australia: Southeastern regions have entered harvest under warm, dry conditions, which supports quality but may trim projected yields if extended.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🛑 For Holders: Consider locking in forward contracts; downside risk remains while supply outstrips demand.
• 📉 For Traders: Watch for technical support around historic lows (Euronext 185 EUR/t); volatility likely around new USDA and EU inventory data.
• ⚠️ For Importers: Favor short-term purchasing; ongoing high supply keeps opportunities for discounted lots in spot and nearby months.
• 🗓️ For Exporters: Focus on logistics optimization; premium export windows may close quickly as Northern Hemisphere spring plantings approach.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Euronext (Mar 2026)	185.75 EUR/t	184 – 188 EUR/t	Weakly Bearish
Ukraine FCA Barley	0.23–0.25 EUR/kg	0.23–0.25 EUR/kg	Stable
SFE Futtergerste Jan 2026	300.00 AUD/t	298 – 302 AUD/t	Stable/Weak