Barley Market Holds Steady Amid Record Crops and Global Competition

The global barley market is weathering a period of notable steadiness, with futures and physical prices showing limited movement despite a backdrop of bumper harvests and ongoing competition among top exporters. Across key regions, abundant supply is keeping a lid on upward price swings, while market participants remain cautious due to macroeconomic headwinds and shifting weather patterns. Western Australia, a heavyweight in the barley arena, expects a near-record harvest for the 2025/26 season—despite slight production downgrades—with output still well above its five-year average. Australian barley’s strong performance is echoed on the world stage: Argentina’s wheat and barley crops are also projected to surpass expectations, further intensifying competition. The situation in the Black Sea remains under watch; while actual export disruptions are not anticipated, increased insurance premiums due to regional tensions are giving EU barley a relative price edge. Meanwhile, in the EU and US, both speculative positioning and cash pricing behaviors suggest a market searching for direction amid these robust global supplies and macro crosscurrents. Traders will be closely monitoring additional crop data releases and weather developments in the coming weeks, as these will shape the 3-day and medium-term price trajectories for barley worldwide.

📈 Prices: Key Markets & Recent Developments

Exchange/Market	Contract/Spec	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SFE (Australia)	Jan 26 Futtergerste	300.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE (Australia)	Mar 26 Futtergerste	305.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE (Australia)	May/Jul/Sep/Nov 26 Futtergerste	315.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE (Australia)	Jan 27/28 Futtergerste	315.00 AUD/t	-4.13%	Bearish
Physical Market (UA)	Feed grade, FCA Kyiv	0.23 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
Physical Market (UA)	Feed grade, FCA Odesa	0.25 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
Physical Market (UA)	Cattle feed, FOB Odesa	0.17 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Australia: Western Australia expects a barley crop of 7.42 million t, slightly down by 50,000 t but still far above the 5-year avg (5.2 million t). Nationally, 2025/26 barley output is projected at a record 15.7 million t.
• Argentina: Remains the world’s cheapest supplier; record wheat and barley harvests are weighing on global prices. The Rosario exchange raised its wheat forecast to 27.7 million t; barley output is also expected to surprise to the upside.
• Black Sea Region: Supply from Russia and Ukraine is not under threat, but rising transport costs (insurance premiums) are making EU barley more competitive.
• Europe: Physical cash prices for feed barley and feed wheat are gently declining on subdued export demand and hefty supply.
• Speculative Influence: Hedge funds are scaling back net-short positions in wheat but remain cautious on feed grains. CFTC data indicate a reduction in net short positions for cereal futures.

📊 Fundamentals Overview

• Inventories: Global stocks are high, with stocks-to-use ratios remaining comfortable across major exporters.
• Harvest Progress: Argentine wheat (and likely barley) harvest is 60% complete with high average yields; Australia continues to report robust results despite minor downward adjustments.
• Policy & Trade: Russia will not impose barley export taxes this week; the EU faces no immediate supply threats from the Black Sea, supporting current price levels.

☀️ Weather Outlook: Global Barley Regions

• Australia: 7-day forecasts show average to slightly above-average rainfall in Western Australia, positively supporting late crop quality but not threatening harvest progress.
• Ukraine/Black Sea: Mild temperatures and low precipitation; good conditions for remaining late harvest activity and early grow-out of winter grains.
• Argentina: Near-ideal weather supports rapid harvest; rainfall outlook is neutral, minimizing crop risk.
• Europe: Conditions remain generally benign with little adverse weather reported; winter barley establishing well.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison Table

Country/Region	2025/26 Output Estimate (million t)	Change vs. Last Year	Stocks/Use Ratio
Australia	15.7	+5%	High
Argentina	n/a	Record	Rising
EU	53.9*	Stable	Comfortable
Russia	21.5*	Stable	Ample

*USDA/IGC estimates. Subject to WASDE revisions.

🕵️ Market Drivers

• Plentiful global supply, especially from Australia and Argentina, caps price rallies.
• Export competition remains fierce as South American barley sets global floor prices.
• Black Sea freight risks push up delivered costs to some destinations, helping EU sellers.
• Speculative money is gradually moving out of net shorts in wheat and barley, but without strong conviction or new bullish momentum.
• USDA WASDE and country-level forecasts continue to push market toward a surplus narrative, unless weather unexpectedly turns adverse.

🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Exporters: Lock in forward sales on rallies, given abundant global supply and risk of further downside.
• Importers: Take advantage of current low prices; monitor Black Sea and Argentine shipping updates.
• Producers: Consider holding back a portion of unsold crop unless storage constraints, as price volatility remains limited near-term.
• Speculators: Await clearer technical signals; market is range-bound and searching for a catalyst.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Latest Price	Forecast Range	Bias
SFE Futtergerste Jan/Mar 26	300–305 AUD/t	295–308 AUD/t	Stable/Weak
UA Feed Barley (FCA Kyiv/Odesa)	0.23–0.25 EUR/kg	0.22–0.25 EUR/kg	Stable
EU Physical	194–195.5 EUR/t	193–196 EUR/t	Soft