Barley Market Holds Steady Amid Supply Caution and Weather Risks: What’s Next?

The global barley market has settled into a phase of relative calm, with prices showing virtually no movement across European and Australian exchanges despite underlying concerns about weather patterns and logistics for the coming season. Feed barley contract quotes, such as SFE Futtergerste, have registered unchanged closing prices across all significant contract months, signaling limited market activity and stable sentiment. In Ukraine, FCA and FOB feed barley export prices have also held steady for more than a week, illustrating a broader trend of market participants awaiting fresh news before making decisive moves.

Behind these still waters, however, are several dynamics worth watching. On the supply side, steady but not robust export flows from Ukraine and Russia are matched by healthy stocks in major exporters. While the 2024/25 old crop is mostly accounted for, eyes are firmly on the outlook for Northern Hemisphere planting conditions and Southern Hemisphere harvests. Weather forecasts for Australia and the Black Sea region suggest possible yield risks, while logistical constraints through the Red Sea and Black Sea remain potential wildcards for global trade flows. Demand from North Africa and the Middle East is holding up, though Chinese purchases remain subdued compared to peak years. With speculative positioning largely neutral and fundamentals balanced, the barley market’s next move will likely hinge on weather volatility and global macro events. In this context, traders and procurement managers should keep a watchful eye – the current calm may not last long.

📈 Prices: Key Market Quotes and Trends

Exchange/Offer	Product	Location	Basis	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
SFE (Australia)	Futtergerste Jan 26	Australia	Futures	300.00 AUD/t	0%	Neutral
SFE (Australia)	Futtergerste Mar 26	Australia	Futures	305.00 AUD/t	0%	Neutral
Ukraine Offer	Barley seeds (feed grade)	Kyiv (FCA)	Spot	0.24 EUR/kg	0%	Steady
Ukraine Offer	Barley seeds (feed grade)	Odesa (FCA)	Spot	0.25 EUR/kg	0%	Steady
Ukraine Offer	Barley seeds (cattle feed)	Odesa (FOB)	Spot	0.18 EUR/kg	0%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand: Global Flows and Regional Outlook

• Ukraine and Russia continue to dominate global feed barley exports, with Ukrainian offers stable and no major capacity constraints reported so far in Q4 2025.
• North Africa (Morocco, Algeria) and the Middle East remain consistent buyers, but Chinese demand is notably softer, reducing upside for export prices.
• Australian barley harvest is entering its final stages, with early yield reports matching recent averages, supporting steady supply forecasts.
• Logistics: Black Sea and Red Sea export routes are closely watched as regional instability and insurance costs could disrupt flows, especially into Asia and Africa.

📊 Fundamentals: Stocks, Acreage, and Speculative Influence

• USDA global barley stocks are projected to remain comfortable for 2025, but inventories are thin in the EU after a challenging 2024 crop.
• Planting intentions for 2025/26 in Europe are stable to slightly up, supported by resilient feed demand, though low margins could cap expansion.
• Speculative positioning is minimal, with managed money largely off the market until clearer weather or demand signals emerge.

Country/Region	Production 2025E (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
Russia	19.0	3.2
EU	52.5	5.1
Australia	12.4	2.0
Ukraine	6.6	1.0

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Australia: Recent rains have supported late-sown crops, though localized dryness in West Australia may curb yields.
• Black Sea Region: Mild weather continues, but below-average precipitation is forecast for southern Russia and Ukraine, raising some yield risk if dryness persists through December.
• Europe: Conditions remain mostly favorable; France and Germany reported timely autumn rains aiding establishment of winter barley.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Procurement: Buyers should lock in spot and short-term contracts while prices remain stable and basis offers from Ukraine and Australia are competitive.
• Exporters: Consider gradual sales, as market is balanced; be alert for weather-driven price spikes, especially from Black Sea exporters.
• Speculators: Market is range-bound; watch for confirmation of seasonal weather trends or new policy developments for opportunities.
• Risk: Monitor logistical and geopolitical developments in the Black Sea area for potential premium risk.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Location	Product	Forecast Price	Change
SFE Australia (Jan 26)	Feed Barley	300.00 AUD/t	Unchanged
Ukraine (FCA, Kyiv)	Feed Barley	0.24 EUR/kg	Stable
Ukraine (FOB, Odesa)	Cattle Feed Barley	0.18 EUR/kg	Stable