Barley Market in Focus: Steady Prices Amid Ample Supply and Weather Optimism

The global barley market enters December with a largely stable price environment as ample global supplies and favorable crop development set the tone for the months ahead. Barley, particularly feed barley, is trailing the broader grain complex, affected by robust wheat fundamentals and resilient export activity. Despite geopolitical stress, especially in the Black Sea region, and ongoing tensions impacting shipping and insurance costs, barley prices are holding steady, reflecting both supply abundance and subdued speculative interest. The Ukrainian market remains pivotal, with Odesa and Kyiv continuing as key nodes for barley exports. Weather updates and the latest USDA reports hint at continued optimism for 2026/27 crop prospects, driven by increased acreage and positive pre-winter plant conditions across major producing regions like Ukraine and Russia. While wheat markets react to export hurdles and end-stock adjustments, barley sees indirect support, especially where wheat-barley price spreads influence feed demand substitution. With the new WASDE report anticipated, and weather increasingly favoring next year’s harvest, participants should balance cautiously between ample inventories and emerging demand signals—especially feed sector recovery and ongoing global trade shifts.

📈 Prices: Key Market Exchange Overview

Contract (SFE)	Closing Price (AUD/t)	Weekly Change (%)	Settled Date	Status
Jan 26	300.00	0.00	08.12.2025	Stable
Mar 26	300.00	0.00	08.12.2025	Stable
May 26	310.00	+1.61	08.12.2025	Moderate Gain
Jul 26	310.00	+1.61	08.12.2025	Moderate Gain
Sep 26	310.00	+1.61	08.12.2025	Moderate Gain
Nov 26	310.00	+1.61	08.12.2025	Moderate Gain
Jan 27	323.00	+1.55	08.12.2025	Modest Upside
Jan 28	323.00	+1.55	08.12.2025	Modest Upside

Product & Grade	Location	Price (EUR/t)	Prev. Price	Change	Date
Barley seeds, Cattle feed (FOB UA/Odesa)	UA/Odesa	0.17	0.18	-0.01 (-5.6%)	2025-12-05
Barley seeds, Feed grade, 98%, 14% max moisture (FCA UA/Kyiv)	UA/Kyiv	0.23	0.24	-0.01 (-4.2%)	2025-12-04
Barley seeds, Feed grade, 98%, 14% max moisture (FCA UA/Odesa)	UA/Odesa	0.25	0.25	0.00 (0.0%)	2025-12-04

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 📦 Global stocks remain ample for barley, with pressures from strong wheat supplies and healthy 2026/27 crop prospects in Ukraine and Russia lending a bearish undertone to deferred contracts.
• 📦 Export flows from Ukraine continue, with Odesa showing steady activity and FCA bids in Kyiv/Odesa slightly under pressure, suggesting adequate near-term supply.
• 📦 Increased insured shipping costs through the Black Sea have slightly affected margins but not yet materially impacted barley flow as they have with wheat.
• 📈 Demand from feed manufacturers is still subdued but could strengthen if wheat-barley price spreads widen further, encouraging substitution, especially in livestock sectors under margin pressure.

📊 Fundamentals Overview

• 📝 USDA’s WASDE updates expected to maintain an optimistic tone for global coarse grains, with incremental adjustments to wheat and barley end-stocks.
• 📈 Ukrainian barley output projections stable, with latest acreage and crop condition readings positive heading into the dormant winter phase.
• 🇷🇺 Russian barley production supported by favorable weather, though shipping premiums due to port risks provide only minimal support for export values.
• ⚖️ Global supply/demand balance for barley remains comfortable, but vigilance is warranted if feed or malt demand rebounds rapidly in early 2026.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Conditions

• 🌱 Ukraine, southern Russia: Recent pre-winter weather has been largely favorable, promoting robust crop establishment and high rates of good-excellent ratings for winter barley. Precipitation levels are adequate, and soil moisture reserves are in surplus for most key regions.
• 🌱 EU: Mild December so far has enabled uninterrupted winter barley planting and emergence, with frost risk currently low. Near-term outlook sees moderate temperatures and occasional rain—a positive for establishment.
• 🌱 Australia: Barley harvest wrapping up under mostly dry skies. Some quality downgrades in rain-affected Victoria/South Australia, but overall yield performance remains above average.

🌏 World Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025/26 Production (Mt)	YOY Change	2025/26 Ending Stocks (Mt)
EU-27	53.2	+2%	7.2
Russia	21.5	+3%	2.1
Ukraine	9.9	+5%	1.5
Australia	13.8	-4%	1.2
Canada	9.7	-2%	1.7

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ☑️ Buyers: Take advantage of near-term price stability and large available supplies for Q1 deliveries; consider coverage for mid-2026 at current modest premiums if demand increases in feed or malt sectors.
• ☑️ Sellers: Maintain flexible forward offers but avoid aggressive discounting given ample global stocks and subdued short-term demand; monitor volatility from Black Sea logistics closely.
• ☑️ Watch for: Updated WASDE figures, evidence of wheat-barley substitution in feed, and notable weather or geopolitical shifts that might disrupt trade flows in Q2/Q3 2026.
• ⚠️ Risk: Upside limited in light of supply, but weather/geopolitical shocks could quickly rerate market risk premia for deferred contracts.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Location	Current Price	3-day Outlook	Comment
SFE Jan 26 (AUD/t)	300.00	Stable	No major market-moving events expected, price to remain flat.
SFE May 26 (AUD/t)	310.00	Steady-Slightly Firmer	Support from optimism on crop conditions, upside capped by abundant supply.
UA Odesa (EUR/t, FOB)	0.17	Flat	Slightly weaker trend possible if export demand slows further.
UA Kyiv (EUR/t, FCA)	0.23	Flat	No change expected; watching for shifts in Black Sea logistics.