Barley Market Outlook: Prices Flat Amid Ample Supply & Neutral Weather

The global barley market is currently characterized by remarkable price stability, reflecting a well-supplied environment, underpinned by steady production in key exporting regions and consistent demand from the feed sector. Latest contract data from the SFE (Sydney Futures Exchange) for feed barley shows no price changes across maturities into 2028, emphasizing a lack of speculative momentum and a market awaiting fresh drivers. Physical prices in Ukraine remain equally stable: both FCA offers from Kyiv and Odesa hold at €0.23–0.25/kg, while FOB Odesa for cattle feed barley sits at €0.17/kg, all unchanged in the latest reporting period. This price stasis coincides with ample inventories from the record 2024 Northern Hemisphere harvest and limited weather risks currently observed for the Southern Hemisphere planting season.

External influences, from benign weather to subdued international tender activity, underscore near-neutral sentiment. However, the absence of significant speculative positioning or disruptive weather highlights a market in equilibrium, though susceptible to macroeconomic shocks or abrupt shifts in feed grain substitution. As we monitor the upcoming Southern Hemisphere crop and macroeconomic signals, market participants are advised to focus on supply chain optimization and watch for any potential disruptions in Black Sea logistics or global shipping flows.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Exchange/Product	Location	Delivery	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SFE Futtergerste Jan 2026	Sydney	Jan 26	300 AUD/t	300 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
SFE Futtergerste Mar 2026	Sydney	Mar 26	305 AUD/t	305 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
Physical Barley (Feed, 98%)	Kyiv, UA	FCA	0.23 EUR/kg	0.23 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
Physical Barley (Feed, 98%)	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.25 EUR/kg	0.25 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
Physical Barley (Cattle Feed)	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.17 EUR/kg	0.17 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global Production: Recent USDA data confirms stable output across the EU, Australia, and Black Sea region. No major crop shortfalls reported.
• Inventories: Global ending stocks remain comfortable, above the five-year average, giving consumers ample buffer.
• Demand: Feed sector demand steady; industrial and brewing sectors provide only modest growth. Limited interest from Middle Eastern importers so far this quarter.
• Trade Flows: Black Sea and EU dominate exports; Ukrainian logistics steady, with no significant disruptions at Black Sea ports reported.
• Speculative Positioning: CFTC and Euronext COT data show speculative participation near five-year lows, reflecting a lack of momentum traders and trend followers.

📊 Fundamentals in Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Prod. (mt)	2024/25 Stocks (mt)	Export Share
EU	52.4	7.6	25%
Australia	13.1	3.0	19%
Russia	19.2	2.5	13%
Ukraine	5.5	1.4	12%
China (Import)	2.2	2.8	n/a

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Australia: Weather conditions remain mostly average for the 2024/25 planting campaign, with soil moistures supporting expected yields.
• EU: Mild winter and early spring in Western Europe support crop health; no frost or drought risks currently flagged. Minor excess moisture in France and Germany but not yield-threatening.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Favorable winter moisture and above-normal spring temperatures; early phenological indicators point to average or slightly above-average potential yields.

No major short-term weather threats likely to impact prices in the next two weeks.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟢 Sellers: Maintain committed sales at current levels; price floors likely in place near-term due to ample stocks. Selling forward requires careful review of potential shipping cost changes.
• 🟡 Buyers: Continue just-in-time procurement strategies; monitor for late-season weather or logistics shocks in Black Sea/Australia.
• 🟠 Speculators: Market remains range-bound; limited return potential until fundamental shifts (e.g. grain tender activity or major weather event).
• 🟢 Risk Managers: Consider calendar spreads/option strategies given unusually flat forward curve.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Contract/Type	Forecasted Price	Trend
SFE Sydney	Feed Jan ’26	300 AUD/t	Stable
Kyiv FCA	Feed, 98%	0.23 EUR/kg	Stable
Odesa FCA	Feed, 98%	0.25 EUR/kg	Stable
Odesa FOB	Cattle Feed	0.17 EUR/kg	Stable