The global barley market currently finds itself at a crossroads. Prices remain remarkably stable across leading exchanges and physical markets, reflecting a balance between ample supply prospects and moderate demand, particularly from the animal feed sector. Despite some regional weather uncertainties and ongoing export competition among major producers such as Ukraine and Australia, both feed and malting barley values are showing limited volatility. This period of price equilibrium comes after months of steady harvest progress and relatively healthy global stocks, with few fresh bullish catalysts.
The flat tone in futures (notably on the SFE for feed barley) highlights the absence of aggressive speculative activity, while the Ukrainian physical market holds at historically low levels, keeping global barley competitive in livestock rations. All eyes are now on upcoming harvest quality, logistical flows from the Black Sea, and evolving weather patterns that could tip the market in either direction. For producers and buyers alike, risk management and close monitoring of crop developments remain essential as the 2025/26 marketing season unfolds.
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Exchange/Market | Contract/Product | Last Close | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFE (Australia) | Futtergerste Jul 25 | 310,00 AUD/t | 0,00% | Neutral |
| SFE (Australia) | Futtergerste Sep 25 | 310,00 AUD/t | 0,00% | Neutral |
| SFE (Australia) | Futtergerste Nov 25 | 310,00 AUD/t | 0,00% | Neutral |
| Physical Market (UA) | Barley seeds, FOB Odesa | 0.21 USD/kg | 0,00% | Bearish |
| Physical Market (UA) | Barley seeds, FCA Kyiv | 0.23 USD/kg | 0,00% | Neutral |
| Physical Market (UA) | Barley seeds, FCA Odesa | 0.24 USD/kg | 0,00% | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Global Supply: Large carryover stocks from previous seasons and solid upcoming harvests in the EU and Black Sea region stabilise the supply outlook.
- Demand Drivers: Feed demand remains average, with limited increases in industrial usage and livestock herds trending steady in the EU and China.
- Trade Flows: Ukraine continues to offer highly competitive barley, sustaining export momentum, especially to North Africa and the Middle East.
📊 Fundamentals Overview
- USDA Reports: The latest WASDE update shows global barley ending stocks higher than last year, with a recovery in Canadian and French output offsetting losses in Australia.
- Crop Acreage: No major reduction in planted area expected for 2025/26 across top producers.
- Inventories: EU and Black Sea inventories remain comfortable, pressuring spot bids for the time being.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money holds minimal positions in barley, suggesting no imminent volatility from fund activity.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications
- Australia: Mostly favourable conditions prevail, but pockets of short-term dryness observed in Victoria and South Australia could impact yield potential.
- Ukraine & Russia: Weather is improving with good soil moisture, supporting positive yield prospects for the upcoming harvest.
- EU (France & Germany): Recent rainfall eased drought fears, though some localised flooding could affect grain quality in northern areas.
🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country/Region | 2024/25 Production (Mt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU-27 | 53.0 | 10.5 | Solid yields, quality mixed |
| Ukraine | 6.8 | 1.3 | Strong exports |
| Australia | 12.2 | 1.6 | Good, but some dryness |
| Russia | 22.5 | 2.0 | Steady output |
| Canada | 9.0 | 0.7 | Recovering from drought |
| China (Import) | NA | NA | Largest global user/importer |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Black Sea export flows closely; Ukrainian offers remain the global price benchmark.
- Producers should consider forward selling a portion of the new crop if prices rebound due to any weather scare.
- Feed buyers can continue to procure on spot/nearby contracts as no major upside risk is seen short term.
- Keep an eye on Australian weather developments—prolonged dryness could quickly tighten supplies and shift sentiment.
- Stay vigilant for any policy changes impacting trade, especially in the EU and China.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Direction | Forecast Range |
|---|---|---|
| SFE (Futtergerste, Jul 25) | ⬅️ Sideways | 308 – 312 AUD/t |
| UA Physical (FOB Odesa) | ⬇️ Mild Downside | 0.20 – 0.21 USD/kg |
| UA Physical (FCA Kyiv/Odesa) | ➡️ Stable | 0.22 – 0.24 USD/kg |
